Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER, ETR:UT8)'s third quarter results are set to modestly outperform Wall Street expectations, driven by strong mobility trends and continued progress in autonomous vehicle (AV) development, Bank of America analysts believe.
They maintained their ‘Buy’ rating on the ride-hailing and delivery app with a $115 price objective. Shares traded up 2.5% at about $96 on Monday afternoon.
Bank of America said that strong Q3 mobility trends point to a small upside relative to both its own forecasts, $49 billion in bookings and $13.3 billion in revenue, and Wall Street’s expectations of $48.9 billion and $13.3 billion, respectively.
The analysts noted that their bookings estimate sits in the upper half of Uber’s guidance range and represents 19% year-over-year growth excluding foreign exchange, an acceleration from the prior quarter.
While the firm’s EBITDA estimate of $2.25 billion is “slightly below the Street at $2.27 billion since Uber has been investing upside in growth,” the analysts added that “a modest beat is possible, in our view.”
Industry data continues to point to healthy mobility growth, the bank’s analysts noted. “BAC card data indicated year-over-year US Online Transit spend growth accelerated 3pts in Q3,” they wrote, suggesting a stronger backdrop than consensus expectations for stable growth.
On the delivery side, “BAC card data indicated Online restaurant sales accelerated 1pt, which compares to Street estimates for delivery to accelerate 2pts.”
The analysts said they expect delivery growth to be supported by the Trendyol Go acquisition, which CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has described as a “terrific success,” as well as by robust US eCommerce trends.
Looking ahead, Bank of America forecasts fourth-quarter bookings between $51.75 billion and $53.25 billion and EBITDA between $2.40 billion and $2.50 billion, ranges that “bracket the Street at $52.33 billion and $2.48 billion.”
The midpoints would imply 19% year-over-year bookings growth and a 7.3% incremental margin.
The analysts expect investor questions around the potential impact of California’s new SB 371 and AB 1340 laws, which “should lower 2026 insurance costs starting in Q1, but also gives drivers a path to unionization.”
Bank of America highlighted autonomous vehicles as a key driver for the stock, adding that Uber is expected to “highlight positive year to date traction, 3 expected Q4 AV city launches, and a robust 2026 launch schedule.”
Uber will report its Q3 earnings on November 4.