Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, ETR:APC) is showing signs of cooling demand for its latest iPhone 17 models, though growth in China continues to outpace other markets, according to Jefferies analysts.
Jefferies highlighted that delivery lead times for iPhone 17 models are generally declining. “There is almost no lead time for 17 Pro in the six markets we track,” the analysts wrote.
For the 17 Pro Max model, lead times fell in four of six markets, with the UK showing no lead time, while Germany’s lead time rose from zero to 17 days.
The 17 Air in China saw lead times drop from 11 days to two, suggesting weaker initial demand, whereas the base iPhone 17 model maintained relatively stronger trends, with China flat and the UK seeing a sequential increase.
Resale premiums for the devices are also shrinking, the analysts added. Jefferies noted that “all variants of 17 Pro finally went into discounts from premium, which is the first time since launch,” while 17 Pro Max premiums largely disappeared except for the silver 256GB model.
On a year-over-year basis, premium levels remain higher than the discounts seen last year.
Despite the overall slowdown, China remains a bright spot. “For the first five weeks since iPhone 17 shipment started, total iPhone unit growth reached 19% year-over-year,” Jefferies wrote.
The late launch of the 17 Air in China is expected to sustain near-term growth momentum.
However, the analysts warned that margin pressures could emerge. “While volume growth may be better than expected, we remain concerned about the risk of margin miss, given aggressive pricing in the base model of 17 and lack of average selling price increase for 17 Pro Max despite higher BOM costs,” they wrote.
Jefferies also noted that a shift toward the lower-margin base model and rising memory costs could create margin risks for the broader smartphone industry in 2026. The firm factored in a US$100 price increase for the iPhone 18 to offset higher component costs.
Jefferies set a price target for Apple at $203, representing a potential downside of 23% from current levels.