It has been a jittery few months for Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) investors, but Berenberg thinks the worst of the uncertainty may be passing.
The broker has reiterated its 'buy' rating and DKK 425 price target, arguing that a run of upcoming announcements should bring long-awaited clarity to the debate over pricing, demand and leadership at the Danish drugmaker.
Since Berenberg upgraded the shares in September, the analysts have met around 80 investors across Europe and the US, with Novo the most discussed stock in every room. Sentiment, they say, has reached “peak uncertainty”.
The biggest question is price: Semaglutide, the active ingredient in both Ozempic and Wegovy, will face a cut under US Medicare’s drug price reforms from 2027.
The team assumes a deep discount of about 85%, taking the net monthly Medicare price to $150. But with rebates already high, roughly 75% for Ozempic and 50% for Wegovy, the impact may be less severe than feared.
Volume growth has slowed in the US as Wegovy prescriptions flatten, although Berenberg believes the trend is clouded by underreported data from the direct-to-consumer channel.
It expects confirmation of the new pricing structure next month, which should help Novo secure multi-year supply contracts and restart volume growth in 2026.
A burst of corporate activity under the new chief executive also suggests a shift in tone. In just 11 weeks, Novo has launched an 8 billion Danish kroner restructuring, signed two pipeline deals and struck a supply agreement with Costco.
A reshuffled board, pushed through by the controlling Novo Foundation, adds another layer of change, though Berenberg sees this as ultimately healthy.
Novo trades on 14.8 times 2026 earnings, a discount to peers despite industry-leading research returns and a growing obesity franchise that could define the next decade. For Berenberg, that looks like mispricing rather than moderation.