British retail is showing surprising resilience, with sales volumes rising 0.9% in the third quarter of 2025 - the strongest growth since early 2024 and reaching levels not seen since July 2022, according to the ONS.
September marked the fourth consecutive monthly gain, up 0.5%, with clothing sales boosted by summer sunshine and online retailers notching their eighth straight month of growth. Nearly 28% of purchases now happen online, up 5.6% year-on-year.
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted the strength was "surprisingly strong" given London tube strikes and poor weather. "There is little sign in the hard data, or consumer confidence also published this morning, that rumours of tax increases in the November Budget are hitting consumers," he said.
More evidence was provided by GfK's Consumer Confidence Index, which rose two points to -17 in October, with the Major Purchase Index up four points as shoppers strategically time big-ticket purchases around sales events.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights director at GfK, said: "After several years of high inflation, savvy consumers have adapted their purchasing strategies to make the most of their money when discounts are most attractive."
All eyes now turn to whether the Chancellor's Budget will sustain momentum heading into Black Friday.