North American miners start handing down their third quarter earnings results this week, with investor focus set to be on supply disruptions, capital allocation decisions and the growing role of government in strategic minerals, according to Bank of America analysts.
Among standouts for the quarter, Bank of America highlighted Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX:AEM), Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO), and MP Materials.
Agnico Eagle “is trending to the higher-end of 2025 gold production guidance,” the analysts wrote.
Cameco’s 49% interests in Westinghouse Electric Company and Global Laser Enrichment “position it well to help deliver new nuclear capacity in the West.”
MP Materials, meanwhile, “operates the only mine-to-magnet rare earths business in the Western Hemisphere,” according to Bank of America.
Turning to steel, the analysts highlighted that companies have reported customer ordering hesitancy in flat-rolled products, even as equities appear to price in a rebound in steel prices.
“The modest uptick in domestic lead times appears to be more supply than demand driven,” the analysts wrote, while fundamentals for long products remain supportive. They see Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) among key names to watch it reports Monday.
Copper prices have strengthened amid ongoing supply disruptions at major mines. “Supply disruptions at key mines have driven prices of the metal and the equities higher,” Bank of America wrote.
Investors are expected to follow closely updates on production challenges at Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX, ETR:FPMB)'s Grasberg mine and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX:IVN, OTCQX:IVPAF)' Kamoa-Kakula project.
Meanwhile, Bank of America noted that gold producers are benefiting from record free cash flow, placing capital allocation decisions at the forefront.
Bank of America expects its North American Precious Metals coverage to generate $5.9 billion in free cash flow in Q3 and $23.8 billion for full-year 2025, assuming a gold price of $3,352 per ounce.
Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD) will also be in focus following its CEO's departure, the bank’s analysts believe.
In nuclear fuel, they are watching “new reactor builds and the Department of Energy (DoE) funding awards for new enrichment capacity.”
For rare earths, project development is expected to dominate attention following MP’s Department of Defense (DoD) partnership, with investors looking for “hints of new projects and partnerships” amid rising government involvement.
Bank of America also highlighted ongoing themes in base metals, including supply disruptions, merger and acquisition activity, and China’s grid investment.
The bank raised its price objectives on Freeport-McMoRan to $50 from $42, Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX:LUN) to $17.50 from $16, Nexa Resources S.A. to $5 from $4.50, and Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to $28 from $27.