- FTSE 100 rises 88 points to 9,515
- UK inflation remains at 3.8% in September
- Barclays ups guidance and announces £0.5bn buyback
- Updates also from Reckitt Benckiser, Fresnillo, Aberdeen, Halfords
4.53pm: Mood lifted
Wednesday’s inflation reading lifted the FTSE 100, with gains led by housebuilders and banks. The index added 88 points at 9,515.
“The FTSE 100 is poised to enjoy its best day in at least two months, while the FTSE 250 is also firmly in rally mode, knocking on the door of the July high and briefly hitting levels not seen in over three years,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“Today’s CPI reading seems to have transformed the tenor of the debate about the UK – if inflation does ease and yields come down, the BoE will be able to think more firmly about easing while the government will find some of the excruciating pressures on its finances alleviated.”
4.10pm: FTSE flying back close to highs
The FTSE has enjoyed a strong old day, boosted by better-than-expected inflation data and a solid set of earnings updates.
Up 1.1% so far, the London benchmark is back within 30 points of the all-time highs reached at the start of the month.
All but two of the index's largest 25 stocks are in green (Rolls-Royce and Glencore are the exceptions) and 87 of the companies across the index are in green (exceptions include Fresnillo, Polar Capital Technology Trust, Melrose Industries, Burberry, Scottish Mortgage).
Kitchen maker Howden Joinery (up 5.6%), housebuilder Persimmon (up 5.5%), lender Barclays (up 5.1%), real estate developer Segro (4.8%) and bookmaker Entain (up 4.5%) are the top five on the leaderboard.
Shares have been boosted by UK gilt yields falling on the back of the lower CPI data than expected, which economists agreed was likely to represent peak inflation for the cycle, though there was not full agreement on whether another Bank of England rate cut is possible before Christmas.
The cost of government debt fell to around its lowest this year, with the 10yr gilt yielding below 4.4% at one point, down from over 4.7% around the start of the month.
Across the pond, US stocks are more firmly in the red now, with the Nasdaq down 0.6%, led by declines for Netflix, Texas Instruments, Palantir, Amazon, Tesla and AMD.
3.07pm: Crypto ETF deal
Crypto brokerage FalconX has agreed to acquire 21Shares, the provider of the world’s largest suite of cryptocurrency ETFs and ETPs, in one of the most significant ETF industry transactions in recent years.
Based in Switzerland, 21Shares was founded in 2018 and currently has over $11 billion in assets across 55 listed products.
FalconX, which is based in Silicon Valley and services a global client base of over 2,000 institutions, is getting "one of the most trusted and innovative product platforms in digital assets" said CEO Raghu Yarlagadda.
"FalconX has built the institutional backbone for trading, derivatives, and credit, and extending that infrastructure into listed markets through 21Shares is a natural next step toward strengthening market efficiency."
Following the FCA's recent lifting of the ban, UK investors earlier this week were able to start trading four 21Shares ETPs, two each focused on bitcoin and ethereum.
2.48pm: US stocks open slightly lower
New York stocks have opened modestly on the back foot, while in London the FTSE keeps on truckin' higher.
The Dow Jones has dropped 77 points or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are just below flat, down 0.1% and 0.05% respectively.
Dragging on the S&P are falls of 8.4% for Netflix, and 8% for Texas Instruments, both on quarterly updates that disappointed.
Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ:BYND) shares are up 63% after the soaring 146% in the previous session when the vegan food maker said its products would be available at more Walmart stores.
2.22pm: Defence shares up
FTSE 350 and European defence shares are mostly higher today.
This comes despite Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying this morning that US president Donald Trump’s suggestion for Ukraine and Russia to stop at the current frontlines would be "a good compromise".
Zelenskyy, whose comments made on a Scandinavian trip, said he doubted that Vladimir Putin would support the call.
"Trump proposed ‘Stay where we stay and begin conversation’. I think that was a good compromise, but I’m not sure that Putin will support it, and I said it to the president [Trump]," he told reporters, according to Agence France-Presse.
Chemring shares are up 3.6%, QinetiQ 2%, Babcock 1.8%, BAE 1.6% and Avon Technologies 1.4%.
1.57pm: Double-decker trains in the Eurostar
Eurostar aim to start running double-decker passenger trains through the Channel Tunnel.
Double-decker trains are already used for the car-transporting LeShuttle trains, but the cross-channel passenger train operator said it is ordering 30 two-tier Celestia trains from Alstom for €2 billion (£1.74 billion).
Eurostar expects to start using the 200m-long trains in 2031.
Aiming to swell the size of its fleet by almost a third, it said the deal has the option for 20 more trains.
1.16pm: Citi told clients to take profits
Gold sold off 4.7 standard deviations yesterday, notes Citi in a note to clients published yesterday.
"We had flagged that prices were stretched to levels previously associated with pullbacks and had reduced our long position accordingly.
"We had also pointed out that the so-called debasement trade was very narrow. We were running our remaining long spot position with a tight trailing stop, which we have now traded through."
As such, Citi takes profit on the trade and cut its global asset allocation 'overweight' in precious metals.
1pm: JLR attack costs economy almost £2bn
The cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover was the most financially damaging in history, according to the Cyber Monitoring Centre, which estimated a total cost of £1.9 billion.
Production was halted across the carmaker's global operations for more than a month, with around 5,000 suppliers needing to be supported as tools were downed.
The production process has not yet got back up to full speed.
"With a cost of nearly £2 billion, this incident looks to have been by some distance, the single most financially damaging cyber event ever to hit the UK," said CMC technical committee chair Ciaran Martin.
JLR has not yet estimated the cost of the incident, though its financial results are due next month.
12.25pm: Boost for retail sector
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will close the 'low-value imports' tax loophole in the Budget that currently allows overseas retailers such as Shein and Temu to send small packages to the UK without paying any customs duties.
UK retailers have long been arguing that it creates an uneven playing field, and have been pushing for parcels containing goods worth up to £135 to start facing customs duty, which typically would be up to 25%.
The Financial Times reports that the Budget will see this loophole closed, ending a practice that the government estimate to cost the UK industry as much as £600 million a year.
12.04pm: Coal use still rising
Global coal burning rose to a record high last year, though the share of coal in electricity generation dropped due to the surge in renewable energy.
The State of Climate Action report, published today by the World Resources Institute thinktank, noted that many countries have fallen behind their own targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which are still rising, although at a slower rate.
"There’s no doubt that we are largely doing the right things. We are just not moving fast enough," the report's authors say.
"One of the most concerning findings from our assessment is that for the fifth report in our series in a row, efforts to phase out coal are well off track."
More sectors must use electricity instead of oil, gas or other fossil fuels if the world is to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
11.48am: Housing developer loses in Supreme Court case
A major ruling for the housebuilding industry, as the Supreme Court has handed down a ruling over the 'nutrient neutrality' rules, which many in the industry have been blaming for holding back swathes of development across the UK.
Judges unanimously rejected arguments that duties to assess environmental impacts are limited to the earliest stages of planning.
They confirmed that public authorities must carry out an appropriate assessment for housing development proposals on land close to protected wildlife sites.
A developer, CG Fry, has been challenging Somerset Council's blocking of its planning permission for a development in the Levels, having failed in appeals at the High Court and Court of Appeal.
11.02am: FTSE lifted as gilt yields fall
The FTSE 100 is continuing to climb, led by Barclays and housebuilders, with gilt yields down after the inflation data.
Barclays shares are up 4.5%, builders Persimmon and Barratt Redrow and Berkeley are up 3.3%, 2.7% and 2.7%.
UK gilts are in demand, pushing yields down. The UK 2-year yield down 9 basis points and the 10-year yield is down more than 7bps.
"In the past month, UK 2-year yields are lower by 21bps, and the 10-year yield is down by 31bps, outpacing losses for European and US yields," says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
"The decline in yields is down to a confluence of factors including concerns about the growth outlook, today’s lower CPI print, and hopes that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will build a larger fiscal headroom in her budget.
"While tax rises are not good for growth, a mix of tax increases and substantial spending cuts could keep yields subdued."
Overall, UK stocks and bonds are stealing the show today, while the pound sinks. The FTSE 100 is bucking the trend across Europe where stocks are falling, the UK index is up by 0.5%, boosted by some strong earnings data.
Barclays does the heavy lifting for the UK’s financial sector
10.28am: ITV major shareholder runs out of patience?
Shares in ITV PLC (LSE:ITV) have dropped over 8% after Virgin Media owner Liberty Global (NASDAQ:LBTYA) sold half its stake, having held it for just over a decade (and seen it fall by around 75% in value).
The US company sold 193,365,540 shares via an accerlated bookbuild, equivalent to selling a 5% stake in the broadcaster, for approximately £135 million.
This reduced its stake that reached 10% in the summer of 2015.
Liberty Global has promised not to sell further shares for at least two months.
9.59am: Rate cut still 'back in play'
Some economists still think we could see another BoE rate cut this year.
James Smith at ING says food and services inflation both undershooting the MPC forecasts, together with softer wage growth, "brings another 2025 rate cut firmly back into play".
He says "everything now depends on the details" of Rachel Reeves' Budget next month.
Until recently, Smith had forecast a November rate cut but has since pushed back that call to February, on the basis of recent cautious BoE commentary.
"That’s still loosely our base case, though markets are now pricing a 72% chance of a December cut, up from just 22% two weeks ago. That looks entirely possible to us, though it will depend on the details of the late-November Autumn Budget.
"The Bank will want confirmation that there will indeed be a material fiscal tightening in 2026, led by tax hikes. And that those tax hikes don’t push up on headline inflation in 2026, in the same way some of last year’s increases did in recent months."
9.36am: Barclays impresses City
What are analysts saying about Barclays?
Jeffereries says pre-provision profits were 4% ahead of expectations, even with extra motor provisions.
"Perhaps surprisingly," after the strong US bank reporting season, "this was not driven by the Investment Bank", which was in line with expectations, but the UK and US consumer banks that came to the fore.
UBS says it was "better in the right places", including a lower impairment than expected.
The Swiss bank's analysts agree that the pre-provision profit beat was driven by a 22% beat in US Consumer, 3% better from Barclays UK and 6% higher UK corporate: "places where we'd most like to see outperformance".
Investment Bank was 4% below consensus due to a 3% costs miss, with income broadly in line. Equities trading was below expectations, fixed income in line, banking and corporate lending ahead.
Neil Wilson at Saxo says the setting aside of a further £235 million for motor finance compensation "barely touches the sides".
Unlike in the first half, he notes, banking fees and revenue from underwriting as well as income from advisory work were higher than last year.
"Some tailwinds on Wall Street but still positive. Overall, turnaround looks more than on track and investment banking was more positive than in the first half."
8.58am: FTSE outperforming as gold and oil recover
The FTSE 100 is on a stormer, up 0.7%, while on the European mainland, Germany's DAX is in the red, down 0.1%, and France's CAC is down 0.4%.
Only Spain's IBEX is higher, lifted by renewable energy utilities.
Analyst Aarin Chiekrie at Hargreaves Lansdown says the FTSE 100 is being "buoyed" by the inflation print coming in below market expectations.
However, as CPI remains nearly double the BoE’s 2% target rate, this is "limiting its ability to push through further rate cuts for fears of reigniting inflation" and so markets are only forecasting two more rate cuts by the end of 2026.
On gold, he says: "prices have stabilised at around $4,120 per ounce this morning, after the sharpest drop since 2021 saw gold down 5% in yesterday's session.
"The downward pressure came from traders locking in gains from the recent record-breaking rallies and hopes of easing US-China tensions dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. Still, gold remains up around 60% year-to-date."
Oil prices are also rebounding, with Brent crude up 1.5% tro $62.25 a barrel, continuing to recover from the five-month/four-year lows seen in recent days.
"The uplift comes amid renewed supply-side fears after reports that the planned Trump-Putin summit has been postponed. Moscow’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine is sparking fears that tensions are rising and sanction-related disruptions could tighten near-term supply," says Chiekrie.
8.34am: Fresnillo production
As well as gold and silver finding footing after plummeting yesterday, Fresnillo also published its production figures.
Peel Hunt analyst Kieron Hodgson says total silver production for the quarter was 3% below his estimate at 11.7Moz, while gold production of 151.3koz was 9% higher, driven by lower ore grades and recoveries at Herradura and lower grades at San Julián.
Zinc production declined 13% quarter-on-quarter due to lower volumes, grades, and recoveries at Saucito and Fresnillo.
Fresnillo reiterated its production guidance, as announced at the interim results.
8.15am: FTSE off to a flier
The FTSE 100 has romped higher in early trading, up 45 points or 0.5% to 9,472.27, driven by precious metals miners, Barclays and Reckitt.
Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV) are up 5.7% and 4.2% as the brakes have been put on the fall in gold and silver prices.
Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) shares are up 2.7% after its Q3 results (see below), raised guidance and £0.5 billion share buyback.
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE:RKT) is a bit further back after its Q3 numbers (see below), with other miners, housebuilders and insurers on the rise.
7.58am: Reckitt beats expectations
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE:RKT) has posted stronger sales numbers than expected for the third quarter, helped by a return to growth in developed markets.
The Durex-to-Dettol maker reported net revenues of £3.6 billion, a 7.0% rise on a like-for-like basis, while analysts were expecting a rise of just over 6%.
Core Reckitt products delivered LFL growth of 6.7%, beating the City consensus of 5.4%.
Growth was led by performance in emerging markets, where like-for-like net revenue increased 15.5%.
Full-year 2025 guidance was maintained, with group like-for-like net revenue growth expected between 3% and 4%, and Core Reckitt forecast to exceed 4%.
7.47am: Barclays profits fall but buyback announced
Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC)) unveiled a £500 million share buyback and upgraded its profitability guidance for this year, following a third-quarter performance that was better than expected.
Income for the third quarter rose 9% year-on-year to £7.2 billion, with net interest income excluding the investment bank and head office up 16% to £3.3 billion.
Profit before tax fell 7% to £2.08 billion, though this was slightly ahead of the average City analyst forecast.
Chief executive CS Venkatakrishnanbank said the buyback was part of a move to quarterly distributions and that the board had decided to bring forward a portion of full-year distribution plans after "robustly and consistently generating capital over the past nine quarters" to lift tangible net asset value (TNAV) per share to 392p and the common equity tier 1 capital ratio to 14.1%.
7.28am: Economists predicting no more rate cuts this year
Economist Monica George Michail at NIESR says she thinks the inflation data today will not move the dial for the Bank of England.
However, a 0.3% drop for GBP/USD suggests others think otherwise.
"We expect inflation to remain above 3% through the first quarter of 2026 before gradually falling towards the 2% target," she says.
"Elevated inflation this year has been driven by higher housing costs, food price pressures, and persistently strong wage growth.
"Given that, we think the Bank of England will remain cautious and pause interest rate cuts at least till February to avoid stirring up inflationary pressures again".
Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, is takin a similar line.
"The current inflation environment of headline rates at 3.8%, stubborn services price pressures and still heightened food inflation is risky.
"It could continue to increase inflation expectations, already at historical highs, and trigger damaging second-round effects in domestic wage and price-setting."
He sees the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee as being "likely to favour a ‘skip’ when considering further rate reductions in the two remaining meetings of this year, especially as UK inflation is likely to remain notably higher than the eurozone's throughout the next few months".
Marklet analyst Michael Brown at Pepperstone says while the details of the ONS report were "surprisingly optimistic", most notable falling food prices, "it seems highly unlikely that this morning's figures will materially move the needle in terms of the BoE policy outlook".
The MPC has previously pencilled in September as marking the peak in terms of inflation this cycle, but policymakers "will want to be sure that peak has indeed passed before taking further steps to remove restriction, something that is impossible to gleam from just one print", especially with significant splits among members over the degree of slack emerging in the labour market.
7.15am: FTSE called higher after unexpected inflation result
The FTSE 100 is being predicted to start higher on Wednesday as UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.8% last month, sending the pound lower as hopes rose for an earlier interest rate cut.
An 20-point gain was the call for London's blue-chip index on the futures market, where other European benchmarks were being called sharply lower.
Yesterday, the Footsie put on 23.4 points to close at 9,426.99, while overnight trading on Wall Street was mixed, with the Dow Jones adding 0.5%, the S&P 500 finishing less than one point higher, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.2% and the domestically focused Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.
This morning, UK consumer price inflation for September was flat compared to the previous month, the Office for National Statistics revealed, whereas the market had expected a rise of 0.1%.
This meant that, on a year-on-year basis, the consumer price index remained at 3.8%, versus the 4.0% consensus forecast.
Core CPI dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, when it had been expected to rise to 3.7%, while the services CPI remained flat at 4.7%, also defying predictions for a small increase.