ASX 200 futures were down 47 points (-0.52%) at 8:57 am AEDT, implying a softer open after Tuesday’s strong finish.
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) closed 62.8 points higher at 9,094.7, ending 0.70% above its session low and within 0.23% of its high. Breadth was solid across the market: in the S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), 181 stocks advanced versus 92 decliners. Intraday, the index surged 83 points (+0.92%) to a fresh record 9,115.2, its second record in a week, aided by Wall Street’s positive lead and a landmark US–Australia critical minerals framework.
After a tough 12 months into April, Resources (XJR) +1.6% has turned decisively, with managers rotating back into miners. Majors led the move — Alcoa DRC +7.49%, South32 +4.49%, Pilbara Minerals +2.55%, BHP +2.29%, Mineral Resources +1.86% — while a rebound in Gold (XGD) +2.3% added momentum via Regis +5.6%, Evolution +4.4%, and Emerald +3.8%. Elsewhere, funding sectors were mixed: Energy +0.13%, Info Tech +0.02%, and Consumer Staples -0.30% lagged, while Consumer Discretionary +0.8% enjoyed a rare stronger session. Sector leaders for the day were Materials +1.67%, Telcos +1.18%, and Health Care +0.98%.
Sentiment was helped by an US$8.5b (A$13.5b) US–Australia critical minerals and rare earths framework agreed during PM Albanese’s visit to the White House. The deal seeks to accelerate investment and diversify supply chains away from China, which dominates REE processing. Albanese called it a “pipeline ready to go,” while President Trump projected rapid progress on critical minerals supply over the next year.
Stock movers: retail pops on rate-cut hopes; Zip reverses
Retail-facing names firmed on expectations the RBA could cut rates in two weeks following a weak labour report: Super Retail +1.49%, Myer +1.18%, Temple & Webster +1.92%, Kogan +0.63%. DroneShield +8.72% snapped a seven-day slide, rebounding from flagged support around $4.50–$4.30. In contrast, Zip -9.11% saw profit-taking after a 350% rally from April’s $1.08 low to Monday’s $4.93 high, despite a strong 1Q26 update (TTV $3.9b, +38.7% YoY; 26.0m transactions, +21.9% YoY).
Rates: markets lean toward cuts
The Australian rates market is pricing around 18bp (≈73% odds) of a 25bp RBA cut in November and a cumulative 50bp of easing by June 2026. In the US, markets are fully priced for a 25bp Fed cut next week, with a cumulative 125bp of cuts by December 2026.
US equities: Dow records; Alphabet slips on browser risk
The Dow hit a record while the Nasdaq eased as Alphabet -2.37% to $250.46 fell on competitive concerns after OpenAI’s “Atlas Browser” announcement tied to ChatGPT.
GM +14.88% rallied on raised guidance; Coca-Cola +4.06% beat expectations; Netflix steadied after-hours around $1,241.35 despite an earnings miss tied to a Brazil tax dispute. Tesla and IBM report after the close tomorrow morning AEDT.
Europe: modest gains, France at records
European shares edged higher for a second day.
The STOXX 600 +0.2%, with France +0.6% at record highs.
Standouts included Edenred +19.6% on better-than-expected Q3 sales. Real estate +1.3% outperformed; Segro +2.9% rose on strong rent signings.
The FTSEurofirst 300 +0.2% and FTSE 100 +0.3% also advanced.
Commodities & FX: gold’s sharp pullback; oil steadies
- Gold futures slid US$250.30 (-5.7%) to US$4,109.10/oz, the steepest daily fall since August 2020, trimming a torrid YTD run that neared +70% last week and raising the question of correction vs. crash.
- Spot gold traded near US$4,124at the US close.
- Oil firmed (Brent +0.5% to US$61.32; WTI +0.5% to US$57.82) as glut fears eased.
- Copper -1.4%and aluminium -0.3% softened; iron ore +0.03% to US$105.53/t. FX: EUR near 1.1600, AUD around US$0.6485, JPY ~151.90 per dollar.
Updates and earnings ahead
In Australia, Woodside, Mirvac, and Iluka release quarterly updates.
In the US, watch Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, GE Vernova, and Lam Research.
Markets will remain sensitive to rate-cut odds, commodity volatility, and any further detail on the US–Australia critical minerals framework.