Government money is pouring into the mining sector at levels not seen before, with US initiatives and strategic metals at the center of the surge, Jefferies analysts said in a new report.
Mentions of government financing, equity participation, and grants have more than quadrupled since 2019, signaling a major policy shift that analysts say could reshape the industry and boost share prices for companies in the right sectors.
The surge in government support reflects what Jefferies describes as “long-term institutional commitment rather than cyclical funding,” based on a review of 20 years of public filings and transcripts. Adjusted for the volume of documents, mentions of government investment in mining have risen more than threefold since 2019.
US engagement has intensified sharply, accounting for 45% of mentions between 2020 and 2025, up from 25% in 2005-2009. Meanwhile, emerging markets outside China saw their share drop from 35% to 13%.
The types of government support are also evolving: equity and quasi-equity participation grew to 12% of mentions from 5%, grants—including the US Defense Production Act Title III—rose to 20% from 15%, and tax credits and incentives climbed to 16%. Traditional loans and guarantees fell from 40% to 26%.
The metals attracting the most attention are base metals, battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite, and rare earth elements, which together represented 73% of mentions from 2020 to 2025. Gold and other precious metals have fallen out of focus, declining to 10% from 35% over the same period.
Government money is proving to be rocket fuel for mining stocks, Jefferies says, pointing to triple-digit rallies in MP Materials, Perpetua Resources, and Sidney Resources as proof of the sector’s new momentum.
Yet the influx of public money also raises questions about how far governments should go in shaping corporate strategy. “The risk is that the creation of state-backed entities can compromise fiduciary duty to shareholders if private sector companies effectively become SOEs,” Jefferies wrote. “However, when executed properly, the benefits of government investment can far outweigh the risks and clearly have the power to drive extreme share price moves.”
Analysts point to copper as a particularly strategic and scarce metal, with the bank recommending a basket of copper mining stocks, including Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL), Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM), Teck Resources Ltd (USA) (TSX:TCK), and Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX:LUN).
“After years of underinvestment, the mining industry now sits at the nexus of industrial policy for governments globally,” Jefferies analysts concluded.