ASX 200 futures are down 7 points (−0.07%) at 8:30 am AEDT, pointing to a slow start to the week. LKast week, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 73.1 points lower, down 0.81%.
Materials (+4.03%) led convincingly, followed by Real Estate (+1.73%), Health Care (+1.33%) and Consumer Staples (+0.16%). The laggards were IT (-4.29%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.89%), Energy (-1.67%) and Telco (-1.18%).
Among individual names, Pacific Smiles Group (+36.25%), Articore (+35.56%), Regis Resources (+13.71%) and Deep Yellow (+12.62%) topped the winners’ list, while DroneShield (-17.83%), Life360 (-16.13%), Cettire (-16.13%) and Polynovo (-14.81%) suffered double-digit declines.
The local diary is light, leaving the market to debate the RBA’s next move. IG Markets says that with both unemployment and trimmed mean inflation likely to end the year above the Bank’s 4.3% and 2.6% forecasts, respectively, the Board faces three paths. First, if Q3 CPI on October 29 proves firmer, hold in November and reassess after October labour force data in just over three weeks. Second, still hold in November but, should unemployment rise to 4.6% or higher, move decisively with a 50 bp cut in December to pre-empt a sharper slowdown. Third, cut 25 bp in November regardless of Q3 CPI, the path of least regret.
September’s labour force report reignited expectations of an RBA rate cut at next month’s Board meeting, and the sector tape showed a clear rotation.
Futures begin the week pricing ~21 bp (≈83% probability) of a November cut and ~54 bp of easing by May 2026.
Looking ahead locally, Tabcorp holds its AGM; across the region, New Zealand prints CPI, and in China a data deluge lands with GDP, home prices, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment.
Wall St advances on softer tariff tone and regional-bank beats; busy earnings and data week ahead
After a choppy few sessions, Wall Street finished higher on Friday and for the week as sentiment improved on multiple fronts. Markets took comfort from President Trump’s comment that a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable, as well as signs that regional-bank earnings are easing credit-stress concerns.
Hopes also firmed on prospective US–China meetings—reports point to a Trump–Xi encounter at APEC and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meetings with Chinese officials in Malaysia next week. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 2.46%, the S&P 500 added 1.70% and the Dow gained 711 points. Regionals rallied into the close: Zions +5.8% to $49.67, Truist +3.67% to $42.60, Western Alliance +3.1% to $72.48 and Fifth Third +1.31% to $40.89.
Still, investors will watch whether last week’s flare-up was contained or an early sign of broader stress, given rapid growth in collateralised loan and private-credit markets and evidence of looser lending discipline. The week ahead focuses on US–China developments and a busy Q3 2025 earnings slate—Tesla, GE, Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM and Intel—alongside CPI, S&P Global flash PMIs and existing home sales, while the federal shutdown enters week four.
Europe — Bank jitters pressure majors; indices slip but still notch modest weekly gain
European equities slipped on Friday as US regional-bank jitters pushed investors toward havens. Banks fell about 2.5%, with Deutsche Bank, Barclays, UniCredit and BNP Paribas down 3.3%–6.5%.
The FTSEurofirst 300 dropped 0.9% on the day but still posted a 0.5% weekly rise. London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.9% Friday and finished the week down 0.8%.
Currencies: USD mixed: euro eases, Aussie firms, yen weakens
The US dollar was mixed.
- The euro eased from US$1.1727 to around US$1.1650 into the US close.
- The Aussie lifted from US$0.6444 to near US$0.6500, holding around US$0.6495 late.
- The yen weakened from ¥149.40 to about ¥150.60 per US dollar.
Commodities — Oil edges up but down on the week; gold pulls back from record; base metals mixed, iron ore dips
Crude edged higher Friday but still logged a 2.3% weekly loss—the longest losing streak since March—on IEA warnings of a growing supply glut and as Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to meet again to discuss Ukraine.
- Brent rose US$0.23 (0.4%) to US$61.29; WTI added US$0.08 (0.1%) to US$57.54. Base metals softened Friday—copper -0.5%, aluminium -0.1%—though they advanced 1.7% and 3.1% for the week.
- Gold futures fell US$91.30 (-2.1%) to US$4,213.30 an ounce after touching record highs above US$4,300, with spot near US$4,248 into the close; gold still gained 5.3% for the week.
- Iron ore eased US$0.21 (-0.2%) to US$105.35/t, down 0.4% on the week amid US–China trade tensions and prospects of rising supply.