- FTSE 100 closes 11 points higher
- UK GDP inches higher, but previous data revised down
- Whitbread profits fall less than expected
4:55pm: FTSE in the green
London stocks ended Thursday slightly higher, with the FTSE 100 nudging up 0.1% to 9,436, or 11 points.
The session started off flat as investors digested UK GDP data that met forecasts, alongside lingering inflation concerns and mixed corporate updates. Inflation remains stubbornly high, keeping the UK at the top of the charts among developed nations. The pound responded positively, hitting a seven-day high of 1.3455.
Across the pond, economic updates from the US remain delayed due to a government shutdown, with traders eyeing UK inflation figures on October 22 and the US CPI report on October 24 for further direction.
Market sentiment is mixed, with less than a 50% chance of a Bank of England rate cut this year, while the Federal Reserve is projected to trim rates by roughly 47 basis points, according to LSEG IRPR data.
On the corporate front, Croda International was a standout, rising 1.9% to 2,721 pence. The specialty chemicals firm posted strong third-quarter sales of £425 million, up 6.5% on a constant-currency basis, and reaffirmed its full-year profit outlook of £265 million to £295 million. Croda also aims to deliver £100 million in annualized cost savings by 2027. Despite Thursday’s gains, the stock remains down around 17.9% for the year.
3.33pm: Gold overbought?
Gold is glittering more brightly in the past couple of hours, hitting a new high above $4,265.
However, after a year in which the metal has surged about 60%, setting roughly 40 new record highs, UBS thinks some of this enthusiasm is starting to look overheated.
The bank says sentiment toward gold has become “excessively” bullish in the short term, though it does not see the conditions for a lasting downturn.
2.48pm: US stocks open higher
Wall Street has started with investors seeming to be in an upbeat mood.
The Nasdaq is getting most of the benefit, up 0.6%, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up 0.4% and 0.3%.
Big risers on the Nasdaq 100 are Shopify, Micron Technology and ASML.
On the S&P, the top riser is JB Hunt Transport Services, after its earnings beat overnight.
2.24pm: Reeves targets household budget pressures in her Budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has vowed to maintain a "competitive environment" for the UK banking sector, acknowledging lenders in the face higher taxes than in some other jurisdictions.
She has been speaking to the FT and other newspapers on the sidelines of the IMF meeting in Washington.
The article notes "heavy lobbying" from banks not to launch a fresh tax raid at next month's budget, with the finance industry putting out a report showing how those in the UK face higher taxes than in Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Dublin or New York.
Reeves also said that she wanted to bolster fiscal headroom beyond the £9.9 billion seen at March's Spring Statement in March as she wanted a bigger buffer against bond market volatility.
She said wealthy citizens are likely to be targets in the Budget, but not via a wealth tax, while another key target will be to try and relieve the stresses on household budgets.
12.37pm: FTSE on the slide, US futures on the up
The FTSE flirted with a positive move mid-morning but is heading lower after midday.
Fallers leading the decline are a mixed bunch, led still by Premier Inn owner Whitbread.
Insure Admiral Group, life insurers Phoenix Group and Aviva, miner Anglo American, drugmaker AstraZeneca, utilities BT, Airtel Africa and Metlen Energy, and asset manager Schroders.
US futures are looking positive again, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq in the lead, up 0.6%, while futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are up 0.4% and 0.35 apiece.
11.40am: Success for modern slavery campaign
Companies on the FTSE 350 and AIM that were suspected of being non-compliant with the Modern Slavery Act have been targeted by the Votes Against Slavery campaign, in its sixth year and now backed by 168 investors with £2.96 trillion of AUM.
Rathbones, the fund manager leading the campaign, has reported that 31 out of 32 the FTSE 350 companies suspected of failing to comply with act are now compliant.
The final company has committed to making changes.
The act is "crucial for the success of the legislation and requires companies to publish an annual statement on their efforts to prevent modern slavery happening in their operations and supply chains", Rathbones points out.
An estimated 50 million people are trapped in modern slavery around the world, including 28 million in forced labour.
On AIM, 81 out of 126 suspected violators have become compliant, with nine committed to make changes, 11 requiring further engagement or monitoring and 11 that did not respond.
If a company is still non-compliant by the time of its AGM, members of the coalition will give consideration to voting against management.
11.19am: Big job cuts at Nestle
Nestle shares are up 8% this morning after it revealed plans to cut 16,000 jobs over the next two years, part of new CEO Philipp Navratil's plan to cut costs and concentrate on products with the highest potential returns.
The Nescafé, KitKat, Haagen-Dazs and Cheerios owner will axe roughly 6% of its global workforce, including 12,000 office and management jobs, with expected savings of around a billion Swiss francs (£940 million).
This was announced alongside third-quarter results, where Nestle sales beat analyst forecasts.
Navratil took the top role last month after his predecessor was given the boot over a romantic relationship with a colleague, quickly followed by the resignation of chairman Paul Bulcke.
"Nestle needs to change faster," he said. "We are fostering a culture that embraces a performance mindset, that does not accept losing market share, and where winning is rewarded."
He replaced former chief executive Laurent Freixe, who was fired in . Freixe's exit was followed just two weeks later by the .
10.36am: Real-time data
More evidence that uncertainty, in no small means because of the upcoming Budget, is holding back UK businesses.
This is via some new ONS 'real-time indicators' on economic activity and social change data for the past week or two.
Initial results from the ONS business insights and conditions survey show in early October 2025 show that 28% of businesses said economic uncertainty is currently impacting their turnover, unchanged from the previous month.
There's some relevant data for inflation, with the system average price of gas increasing 9% in the week to 12 October 2025, compared with the previous week, although it decreased by 14% compared with the equivalent week of last year, according to data from the National Gas Transmission.
10.16am: Driverless Waymo cars coming to London
In the next few weeks, London will get its first Waymo driverless ride-hailing vehicles, the first European market for the Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) business.
Testing will begin with a small fleet of its vehicles with human 'safety drivers', before a full launch next year, the company said last night.
With the UK government planning to allow commercial self-driving pilots from 2026, Waymo is working with the Department for Transport and Transport for London "to secure the necessary permissions" in London.
Waymo has engineering hubs in London and Oxford, which include teams working on large-scale, closed-loop simulations, with its UK connection also extending to its fleet of Jaguar Land Rover all-electric I-PACE SUVs.
9.58am: The latest on US-China trade
"Can you set a price floor for stocks, too", asks market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo, after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House would move to set price floors in some industries to combat China’s non-market economy.
Bessent said stock market volatility would not be considered when dealing with China on trade.
"Those kinds of comments have in the past left markets on edge – no Trump put. But not yesterday – the S&P 500 rallied 0.4% as it climbed not just the wall of worry but also its 20-day SMA.
"Bessent also pushed back against a report that China is 'betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict' with Beijing," Wilson notes.
"The long and short of this is that Bessent said that the US could back down on raising tariffs again on 1 November if China suspends its plans for rare earth export controls."
It was reported by Bloomberg that G7 countries are planning a coordinated response to China’s rare earths policy.
A Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled for later this month ahead of the 1 November tariff deadline.
Wilson notes that nuclear stocks were volatile yesterday after the US Army launched a programme to deploy small reactors.
Shares of NuScale, a small reactor developer, soared 17%. Oklo and Nano Nuclear first jumped then closed lower, following heavy recent speculation on these companies that have not yet commissioned their first reactor yet. .
9.34am: Another day, another record gold high
Guess what gold prices are up to.
Yes, another record high, above $4,240 per troy ounce in the early hours, alongside a weaker dollar and declining US yields.
Silver prices are also pushing higher after dropping two days ago.
Miner Endeavour Gold is up 0.5%, but Fresnillo and Hochschild are flat.
9.20am: BoE credit conditions ease
Bank of England data shows that UK credit conditions eased in Q3, with the highest rise in household secured credit availability since 2007 (excluding Covid).
Banks’ risk appetite increased and default rates fell, signalling improving confidence and reduced mortgage stress.
Demand for unsecured lending remained strong, especially car loans; banks plan to loosen credit scoring further.
Corporate credit demand rose across all firm sizes, with availability up and borrowing seen supporting investment.
Housing market demand softened due to Budget uncertainty, but could rebound if major tax hikes are avoided.
9.11am: Whitbread hit by profit taking
UBS analyst Jarrod Castle says Whitbread interms results are "slightly better" than expected.
"Overall, we see the results as reassuring, but note the shares have rallied into results."
Indeed, the 7.75% fall today takes the shares back to where they were around two months ago.
Castle highlighted a return to positive UK revenue per available room (revpar) in Q2 at 0.6%, versus -2.4% in Q1.
He says: "Current trading shows positive momentum, with bookings ahead of last year in the UK (3% revpar up for six weeks of 3Q) and Germany."
8.47am: UK trade deficit widens
There was more UK economic data this morning, alongside the GDP fiugures.
Britain's trade deficit widened to £3.4 billion in August from £3 billion in July, but it was better than the consensus forecasts, which was for a £4.8 billion deficit.
Excluding precious metals, the trade deficit widened to £2.5 billion, from £1.6 billion, better than the £3.1 billion forecast.
Underlying trade, which excludes erratic factors and precious metals, widened sharply to £1.7 billion, from £0.4 billion.
"Admittedly, the data are subject to heavy revisions, so it is hard to track developments in the trade balance on a month-to-month basis," says Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He notes that the trade balance in July was revised up by over £2 billion in this morning's release, so the £1.4 month-to-month deterioration in the underlying trade balance - the sharpest widening in six months - "could easily be revised away when the data for September are released".
Goods import prices "remain unspectacular", dropping 1.6% month-on-month as crude prices fell sharply between July and August.
Excluding oil and erratics, goods import prices fell 0.7% month-to-month, down from a 0.3% gain in July.
Goods import price inflation remains consistent with CPI core goods inflation of a little above 1% year-over-year, he says.
"So far, then, there is little sign of trade diversion as a result of Mr. Trump’s tariffs weighing on UK inflation."
8.28am: Croda solid as challenging market persists
Croda International PLC (LSE:CRDA) shares rose 1.3% despite the chemicals group reporting slightly slower sales growth in the third quarter, as the trading environment remained challenging.
US trade tariffs contributed to volatility in quarterly performance by region, hitting customer export sales in certain regions, particularly in pharma and industrial markets in Asia, as well as agriculture markets in Latin America.
Revenue of £424.7 million in the quarter was up 4.4% compared to a year earlier, or up 6.5% at constant currency rates, compared to 7% underlying growth in the first half of the year.
8.15am: FTSE falls at the open
The FTSE 100 has opened lower, falling 14 points to 9,411.
Premier Inn owner Whitbread PLC (LSE:WTB) is at the front of the retreat, down 6.7% after reporting a decline in sales and profit, even though they apparently bested the City consensus. Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC (LSE:IHG) has been dragged down too, 1.2% lower initially.
Smiths Group, Persimmon, Diageo, Spirax, Games Workshop and Howden Joinery are all down too, as their shares go ex-dividend.
7.59am: Travis P perks up further
Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) reported a return to growth in the third quarter, supported by a return to growth in its merchanting division as efforts to "sharpen the competitive position" have begun to yield results.
Group like-for-like revenue growth came to 1.8% for the third quarter of 2025 or 0.3% on a total basis that includes a shrinking of the outlet network. This compares to a 2.1% revenue decline in the first half of the year.
Merchanting LFL sales were up 1.7%, compared to declines of 1.0% in Q2 and 3.2% in Q1, while Toolstation growth slowed to 2.3% from 2.9% in the first half.
7.49am: J&J UK baby powder lawsuit
US pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson is facing its first UK lawsuit over whether it knowingly sold baby powder contaminated with cancer-causing asbestos.
The collective claim, involving 3,000 people, alleges that the company was aware as early as the 1960s that its mineral-based talcum powder contained fibrous forms of talc, as well as tremolite and actinolite, which when in their fibrous form are classified as asbestos.
Court documents accuse J&J of knowing that minerals were directly linked to cancers but not only failing to issue warnings on the packaging of its baby powder, but also aggressively marketing the product as pure and safe.
7.38am: UK economy running in a lower gear
Some more detail on August GDP, where the headline rate came in at 0.1% month-on-month.
Industrial production expanded 0.4%, led in large part by stronger manufacturing growth of 0.7%, but both the services and construction sectors provided no help.
Services was unchanged for a second consecutive month, led by weaker transport and storage activity as well as weaker leisure services and retail activity, particularly lower new car registrations.
Construction output shrank 0.3%, dragged down by lower repairs and maintenance work to end the summer.
Today's GDP release, while meeting expectations, was overshadowed by backward revisions, says Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist in his quick take.
July GDP was revised lower to a decline of 0.1%, as both services and construction sectors were downgraded.
For the third quarter as a whole, with September data still to come, Raja estimates that it will be closer to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter – roughly half the pace pencilled in by the Bank of England.
"To be sure, the economy is now running at a lower gear after a strong start to the year. As we noted in our preview, we expect some turbulence to continue as we approach year-end.
"Indeed, the UK economy has yet to see the full ramifications of the US trade war. Budget uncertainty is hitting its peak too – likely dampening discretionary household and business spending."
7.28am: Whitbread not quite as bad as expected
Whitbread PLC (LSE:WTB) has posted interims showing lower sales and profits, but not as bad as City analysts were expecting, as management pushed through steeper cost savings.
The Premier Inn owner generated revenues of £1.54 billion in the 26 weeks to 28 August 2025 were down 2% on the year earlier, but slightly ahead of estimates of £1.51 billion.
Adjusted pretax profit fell 7% to £316 million, but handily beat the analyst consensus of £310.7 million.
The full-year outlook was updated too, with German profits seen lower, offset by UK extended cost-cutting.
7.16am: FTSE 100 called lower as GDP figures give little encouragement
The FTSE 100 was called lower ahead of Thursday's open, as monthly gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed economic growth remained tepid.
An 11-point fall was the prediction for London's blue-chip benchmark, coming after the 28 points lost the previous day when the index closed at 9,424.75.
GDP figures for August showed growth of 0.1%, as expected, with the flat growth in July revised down to a 0.1% fall.
Other major European stock market indices were also predicted to start lower as trade brinksmanship between the US and China continued.
Overnight on Wall Street, stocks finished mostly higher, led by tech and bank stocks, with the S&P 500 adding 0.4% and the Nasdaq rising 0.7%, while the Dow Jones finished just below flat.