The credit data giant is proving that even in a patchy economy, people still need to borrow, and lenders still need to know who they are lending to.
RBC expects Experian PLC's (LSE:EXPN) upcoming half-year results to show an 11% rise in revenue to just over $4bn, helped by a resilient US consumer and steady credit trends that have kept demand ticking along for its data and analytics tools.
In North America, its biggest market, Experian’s financial services division, which provides credit checks to banks, insurers and other lenders, has been buoyed by growth in its Clarity subprime business and new data modules on its Ascend analytics platform.
Mortgage activity remains muted, but the group has been quick to protect margins through new pricing models that offset higher costs.
The Americas consumer business, which offers individuals credit scores and identity protection, is also recovering from last year’s data breach, with revenue up around 11% once adjusted for that one-off hit.
Latin America continues to be the standout region, forecast to grow more than 20% in consumer services and around 12% overall, helped by the economic recovery in Brazil.
By contrast, the UK and Ireland arm remains subdued, with low single-digit growth in business-to-business services offset by a modest lift in consumer activity.
Asia-Pacific is steadier, supported by the integration of Illion, the Australian credit bureau Experian bought last year.
RBC reckons management will lift full-year guidance towards the top of its 6–8% organic growth range.
Operating margins, running at just over 28%, should expand a little further as the company completes its migration to cloud-based systems and trims duplicate technology costs.
The broker values the shares at £42, about 20% above the current price, implying a multiple of roughly 27 times forecast earnings, broadly in line with Experian’s five-year average.
At £35.37, the stock has already recovered strongly from last year’s wobble, but steady lending volumes and an improving consumer backdrop could keep the momentum going.
Even so, investors should keep an eye on familiar risks: any reversal in credit trends, a slower pick-up in Latin America, or more price competition in verification services could stall the recovery.
For now, though, Experian looks well placed to prove that boring can be beautiful in data.