StubHub may be best known as the resale site where fans offload concert or sports tickets, but Wedbush thinks the company’s next act could be much bigger.
The bank has initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a $25 price target, arguing that StubHub is evolving from a pure resale marketplace into a diversified ticketing platform with a credible shot at disrupting the primary market.
In early afternoon trading, the stock was up 6% at $20.
Wedbush’s analysts see a business on the verge of an inflection. StubHub already commands about 42% of the North American resale market and is on track to exceed 50% by 2026.
International expansion through its Viagogo brand is adding a new leg of growth, while aggressive investment in marketing and technology has reignited share gains after years of stagnation under eBay ownership.
The firm’s big swing is on what it calls “direct issuance”, a model that allows content rights holders, from sports leagues to concert promoters, to sell original tickets across multiple outlets rather than through a single primary partner.
StubHub’s early progress, including a multiyear partnership with Major League Baseball, suggests the shift could open a market worth more than $100 billion. Wedbush forecasts direct issuance gross merchandise sales rising from $240 million this year to $12.7 billion by 2028, making up about 40% of total ticket volume.
Even without this new business, StubHub’s established resale platform offers upside. Wedbush estimates adjusted EBITDA margins could expand by more than 30 percentage points over three years as marketing spend normalizes and advertising services ramp up.
The analysts see potential for ad revenue to exceed $600 million by 2028 as the company monetizes its buyer and seller data.
Risks include regulatory scrutiny, especially around pricing transparency in the US, and execution challenges in scaling direct issuance.
But with live entertainment spending still strong and StubHub trading at just 8.6 times forecast 2026 EBITDA, Wedbush believes the risk–reward is skewed in investors’ favor.