If the autumn gold rush has started to feel a bit too smooth, Deutsche Bank thinks your instincts are on point.
Its technical gauge of “trendiness” suggests the September to October rally has likely peaked in momentum, after running for 29 trading days versus an average of about 19 over the past three years.
The longest recent run was 49 days from March to May 2024. That is a long stride by gold’s standards, but the bank stops short of calling a correction and instead points to a phase of steadier prices like June to August.
The breadth matters. Silver, platinum and palladium have travelled with gold this time, which Deutsche says is more typical than the gold-only burst seen earlier in the year.
Silver is the eye-catcher, touching $51 an ounce alongside a record 20% three-month lease rate, a sign of tight physical supply in the lending market.
Under the bonnet, Deutsche’s fair-value models have risen by $260–$290 an ounce since August, while spot has gained roughly $693.
In plain English, the “fundamentals” side of its framework has moved higher with the market, which the bank takes as a reason not to over-read the loss of momentum on the charts.
Flows are less emphatic. With US futures positioning data unavailable, the best real-time read is exchange-traded funds, where buying has slowed but not flipped to selling, a pattern that in past episodes has coincided with prices marking time.
There is also a trade idea for the macro tinkerers. Deutsche still likes gold versus oil, looking for the gold to WTI ratio to climb from the mid-60s towards 72–73.
The bank says that could happen if WTI gravitates toward its 2026 target of $55 a barrel or if gold makes further headway, or some mix of both. For anyone who does not play ratios, the gist is simple: they expect gold to hold up better than crude as the cycle grinds on.
What to do with UK portfolios that hold the big diversified miners and precious-metal proxies?
Remember that silver’s squeeze and the white-metal catch-up can inject more volatility into miners than bullion itself.
If you own the London gold specialists or ETFs, Deutsche’s read is that momentum may cool, but model support and still-positive co-movement across the complex argue against sounding the all-clear for bears just yet.