Copper’s long-promised squeeze has finally arrived, according to Deutsche Bank.
The German bank says the global copper market has flipped into deficit sooner than expected, driven by production setbacks at key mines including Grasberg in Indonesia.
After years of warnings that supply tightness was always “a few years away”, analyst Liam Fitzpatrick now sees the crunch as immediate, with global mine output turning negative in the final quarter of this year and into early 2026.
Deutsche expects copper demand to continue growing at around 2.5% a year, keeping the market tight even if new capacity starts to come through from mid-2026.
The immediate risk, it says, would be a slowdown in global growth or a broader market sell-off. But assuming steady demand, the balance of risks now favours higher prices for longer.
Reflecting that shift, the bank has raised its long-term copper price forecast to $10,000 a tonne, bringing it forward from 2027, and expects a short-term peak near $11,000 in late 2025 and early 2026. T
he move marks one of the most bullish revisions from a major house this year and comes with a raft of target price upgrades across the mining sector.
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) and Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) are both rated 'buy', with targets lifted to 3,000p and 400p respectively, while Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) and BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) stay at 'hold'.
The message is that supply shocks have turned what was a slow-burning story into an immediate one. After years of waiting, the copper deficit has finally turned up on schedule.