- FTSE 100 down 12 points at 9,479 points
- A new record high set above 9,516.83
- France's CAC 40 index plunges after another PM resigns
- Gold price surges past $3,900
- Oil prices rebound from 4-month low
4.54pm: FTSE closes lower
After briefly crossing 9,500 for the first time on Monday, the FTSE closed down 12 points at 9,479.
Meanwhile, political drama in France has been contained to the CAC40 and some euro weakness, as gold and bitcoin have surged.
“Notably weakness in the German index was swiftly bought, while the FTSE 100 managed to eke out a record high despite the lack of news,” Beauchamp said.
3.57pm: Ponzi scheme operator sent down for seven years
Following a prosecution brought by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), 35-year old former soldier Daniel Pugh has been sentenced to seven years and six months in prison for running a £1.3 million Ponzi scheme from his bedroom in Devon.
The fraudulent Imperial Investment Fund (IIF) took money from 238 investors via Facebook adverts, who were offered "impossibly high returns" from him trading their money, the regulator says, of 1.4% a day, 7% a week or 350% a year.
Pugh scooped £96,000 from the scheme, while returns promised to investors never appeared.
FCA executive director of enforcement and market oversight, Steve Smart, says Pugh "made outlandish claims to hook in victims but in reality this was nothing more than a massive fraud".
The sentence was handed down by Judge Weekes, who said any remorse for Pugh's actions came "woefully late".
The FCA says it is pursuing confiscation proceedings to deprive Pugh of the proceeds of his crimes and compensate the victims.
A further individual is wanted in relation to the same offences.
The FCA recommended the public use its Firm Checker to see whether a firm is authorised.
3.14pm: France watch
After France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu stepped down less than a month after being appointed, analyyts at ING say new national elections are becoming more likely "but will not solve the fiscal problems".
The spread of 10y French government bonds over German bunds widened by 5 basis points to around 86bps today.
"During the collapse of the Barnier government in December 2024, we touched levels closer to 90bp, and the relatively muted reaction reflects the markets’ low expectations to begin with," say rates strategists Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker.
The market is "looking at increasing tail risks such as an early end to Macron’s presidency", they add, and if this latter concern gains more traction, they think the 10y spread could start to venture well beyond 90bps.
ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier says the "path forward remains unclear", with calls for new legislative elections growing louder across the political spectrum.
"In our view, the likelihood of fresh elections has increased substantially, though they may not resolve the underlying issue: a deeply fragmented parliament where multiple parties believe they hold a mandate to govern alone.
"Moreover, a renewed parliament would not guarantee inter-party cooperation, and the likelihood of one party holding a majority after the elections is fairly low."
She says the far-right RN is the most likely party to achieve this, but the strategic nature of the two-round parliamentary elections makes this less likely than opinion polls may suggest.
The appointment of a new PM, potentially from the left, would need to unify support from both leftist and centrist factions, which have "very divergent views", she says.
"The probability of successfully forming such a coalition is low given the current political climate, which means that it could also end in parliamentary elections. Elections have therefore become much more likely."
With some voices calling for President Macron’s resignation, though this scenario has become "slightly more plausible", it still remains "highly unlikely at this stage, in our view".
This deadlock is affecting fiscal planning, says de Montpellier, meaning that the chances of passing the 2026 budget before year-end "have diminished further", meaning an automatic extension of the 2025 budget, which will limit spending initiatives and reform efforts.
"France now stands out as the EU member state facing the most acute combination of political and fiscal challenges.
"These headwinds will weigh heavily on its economic prospects in the coming quarters because they lead to a wait-and-see attitude among business leaders and households."
2.55pm: Wall Street mixed
Wall Street has opened more mixed than the futures market would have had us believe.
The Dow Jones has started in the red, down 0.3%, while the S&P 500 has opened up 0.1% and the Nasdaq has risen 0.3%.
On the plus side, AMD has rocketed around 30%, adding around $70 billion to its market value. Also up are Super Micro Computer, Micron Technology, Arista Networks, Dell and Palantir.
But on the slide are Nvidia, Amazon and Meta, all down 1% or more, with Apple and Alphabet are also lower.
In London, the FTSE has flattened off.
1.28pm: Gold and bitcoin highs
Gold is heading for its seventh straight weekly gain, strategists at UBS note, having crossed a record high of $3,900 an oz this morning.
UBS now expects gold to rise to $4,200/oz over the coming months.
The drive has been driven by "market confidence in a renewed Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, continued US dollar weakness, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty,” according to strategists at the Swiss bank.
Prices are now up 47% year-to-date, making gold the best-performing major asset of 2025.
UBS raised its forecast, citing “further ETF purchases, particularly by institutional buyers, as trust in other traditional diversification assets continues to be eroded.”
The bank expects 830 metric tons of inflows this year, nearly double its earlier projection, and sees central bank purchases holding near record levels.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gained over 10% over the past week to climb to a new record high around $125,000, with ether enjoying a similar 11.4% bounce over the past week, recouping the losses of mid-September.
XRP is the laggard among bigger crypto, with Binance's BNB up 23%, solana and dogecoin both up over 12%.
12.48pm: US futures up, FTSE breaking new ground
The main US stocks index futures are all in green, helped by a massive 24% jump from AMD in premarket trading.
Nasdaq 100 futures are leading the way, as a result, up 0.7%, with the S^P 500 rising 0.3% and the Dow Jones 0.2%.
Under a new deal, OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT will buy 160 million shares in chipmaker AMD and deploy up to 6 gigawatts of its specialist AI data centre chips.
The rollout will begin with an initial 1GW of AMD’s Instinct MI450 graphics processing units (GPUs) in the second half of 2026, marking the latest phase in a growing hardware collaboration, the pair noted.
Back in London, the FTSE has climbed further into positive territory, setting new intraday highs.
12.05am: FTSE climbs out of the red
The FTSE 100 has climbed into the green, led by financials, oilers and miners.
Prudential, BP and Glencore are top of the leaderboard.
Other risers include JD Sports, Halma, SSE and St James's Place.
AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell, the largest three companies in the index, are also higher.
Oil and gold prices are lifting some of the index, copper prices are down but that is from the 10-week high reached overnight.
Halma has been handed a vote of confidence from Deutsche Bank, which raised its target price for the safety equipment group from 3,290p to 3,690p, though it keeps the shares at 'hold'.
11.41am: FCA motor finance consultation results tomorrow
The FCA said it will share the results of its motor finance redress scheme consultation shortly after markets close tomorrow, Tuesday 7 October.
"We will issue a statement to the market and publish our consultation on a proposed motor finance redress scheme, along with supporting evidence and analysis," the FCA said.
A press briefing will be held with CEO Nikhil Rathi and senior members of the team who have led the consultation.
11.07am: BYD and Jaecoo rising UK sales
Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD says it achieved its best-ever month of UK sales in September, which makes it the country's second most popular marque.
A total of 11,271 EVs were sold by the Shenzhen-based giant in the UK last month, up from 1,150 a year ago, despite not being included in the new subsidy scheme.
State-owned EV maker Chery, which sells under the Omoda and Jaecoo brands, saw its SUV become the fourth best-selling in the UK in September.
The Kia Sportage, Ford Puma and Nissan Qashqai were the best-selling cars, while the Chinese made BYD Seal U was also in the top 10.
More than 72,000 new battery EVs were registered in September, accounting for 23.3% of the total market, the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said on Friday, "the best month on record" for BEV volumes.
The UK government scheme is available for 36 new models costing up to £37,000. Discounts of £1,500 have been reported, though reductions of up to £3,750 per vehicle are theoretically available, with new models still being added since the £650 million scheme was launched in July.
Cars made in China have so far been excluded, with the government saying this was due to emissions in the production process.
10.29am: Motor finance workings questioned
Even the bottom end of the FCA's calculation of a potential £9 billion to £18 billion of compensation for motor finance misselling is too much, according to the motor finance industry.
In a FT story this morning, Adrian Dally, director of motor finance at the Financing and Leasing Association, said it was hard to work out how the watchdog had come to its estimated number after the Supreme Court decision.
"They haven’t shown the workings . . . We think it should be less than £9 billion."
10.11am: Shawbrook IPO another vote of confidence in London stock market
News of Shawbrook's planned IPO "could attract a lot of interest", says Dan Coatsworth, market analyst at AJ Bell, as the banking sector has "been a rich source of stock market returns over the past year".
He says the intended return of the specialist lender to the stock market provides an exit route for its private equity backers and puts the company "in the right place to tap a broader pool of investors for growth funding".
Shawbrook was valued at £725 million when it first floated in 2015 before being taken over for £868 million in 2017 by BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital.
A valuation of around £2 billion is being talked about as it makes a stock market return, which should see it secure a place in the upper end of the FTSE 250 index.
Coatworth says "it’s a vote of confidence" that Shawbrook has chosen to return to the LSE.
9.44am: French politics in crisis shocker
"To lose one prime minister is unfortunate, but four looks like a major crisis," says market analyst Chris Beauchamp at IG.
He says financial markets have been "blindsided by the news" this morning from Paris, resulting in "yet another new chapter in the torrid drama that is the French government".
As well as the fall in the CAC 40 and the euro, he says, "the real worry will be that the procession of prime ministers unable to govern will at some point force the resignation of President Macron, which would cause the crisis to intensify significantly."
Neil Wilson at Saxo points out that French bond yields rose and the spread with German bunds widened as "fresh doubts surfaced about the viability of the new government".
The last announcement before PM Lecornu's resignation was a Macron loyalist, Roland Lescure, "named finance minister in a cabinet that is full of people from the last, ousted, government."
With this Macron's third government in a year, Wilson wonders "is France ungovernable?"
"Free and fair elections are required to get a government with an actual mandate to govern, which Macron does not possess."
The leader of the right-wing National Rally, Jordan Bardella, said on social media: "There can be no return to stability without a return to the polls and the dissolution of the National Assembly."
On the hard left, France Unbowed leader Mathilde Panot called on president Emmanuel Macron to follow Lecornu: "Lecornu resigns. 3 Prime Ministers defeated in less than a year. The countdown has begun. Macron must go."
The CAC is down 2.05% now, while the EURUSD is down 0.5%.
London's FTSE 100 is down 0.2%, while Germany's DAX is just below flat, Italy's MIB down 0.5% and Spain's IBEX down 0.3%.
9.35am: Construction sector remains negative
The UK construction PMI edged up to 46.2 for September from 45.5 in August, but this still points to a sharp fall in sector activity.
This is the second recovery in the PMI over the past two months, after July’s fall to a five-year low.
All three construction sub-sectors, residential, commercial and civil engineering, showed falls in activity.
9.04am: New French turmoil
France’s stock benchmark, the CAC 40, has plunged 1.7% on reports that the country's new prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, has resigned.
Lecornu was only appointed last month, and yesterday announced the shape of his new government.
The euro is down 0.66% versus the dollar at 1.1663 and 0.35% versus the pound at 0.868.
French PM Lecornu has resigned after his cabinet collapsed just a day after a reshuffle. President Macron accepted his resignation, with no successor yet announced. pic.twitter.com/xEJqL78pQZ
— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) October 6, 2025
8.55am: Treatt shares
The board of flavour and fragrance ingredients maker Treatt PLC (LSE:TET) has thrown its support behind an increased and final takeover offer from private equity group Exponent.
Exponent's existing ingredients business, Natara, has raised its bid to 290p a share, up from the 260p offer made in early September, valuing Treatt at about £173.8 million.
This is 11.5% more than the previous proposal and nearly 30% above the company’s closing share price before the first bid was announced.
Treatt shares are up 4% to only 283p this morning, still a few pennies from the bid price.
8.39am: Familiar feel to opening trades
There is "a familiar feel" to the FTSE market open, with strength in both gold and oil prices propelling the likes of Fresnillo, Endeavour Mining, BP and Shell ahead, says market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor.
Shell is due to report preliminary quarterly numbers tomorrow, he notes.
UK retail sales numbers are also due tomorrow, which Hunter says "come at a time when the resilience of the consumer is being increasingly tested. This will add to the pressure which some retailers have been under, although the beginning of the so-called 'golden quarter' could lend some support."
The murky economic outlook is weighing on some of retail stocks this morning, he feels, as well as the housebuilders and banks, which do not report their own Q3 updates until nearer the end of the month.
"In the meantime the premier index wavered around the flatline, looking to add to its own record closing high, with the FTSE100 remaining ahead by 16.1% so far this year and still popular as an alternative investment destination.
"The FTSE250 has also managed a gain of 7.4%, despite the obvious clouds which continue to hang over the domestic economic outlook."
He also flagged the Nikkei 225 rising almost 5% following the news that Japan's ruling party had chosen a new leader which will likely lead to her becoming the first woman prime minister.
"While the to-do list will be full, not least of which is an ageing and declining demographic as well as a large debt burden, the removal of some uncertainty cheered investors. The index was also helped along by unconfirmed reports that there could be some easing of US tariffs in the auto sector, pushing the likes of Toyota and Honda shares sharply higher."
8.15am: FTSE falls but recovers as oil and gold prices rise
The FTSE 100 started on the back foot but has already fought back into positive territory.
In the positive column are precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining, along with oil giants BP and Shell, along with other miners and financials.
Gold prices are on the upswing again, with spot gold surging past $3,900 an ounce in the early hours, topping $3,945 and now at $3,935/oz.
Oil prices, after sinking to a four-month low last week, have bounced over 1.5% this morning, after a OPEC+ meeting at the weekend.
Fallers are led by Mondi, which reported lower third-quarter earnings amidst trading conditions that it says were "challenging, with softer volumes and declining prices across most pulp and paper grades".
7.56am: Shawbrook prepares for London float
Digital bank Shawbrook is preparing to list on the London Stock Exchange in a move that could value the business at around £2 billion.
The specialist lender, which focuses on areas of the market that larger banks often overlook, said it intends to publish a registration document today, the first formal step towards an initial public offering.
Its shares will be traded on the main market if the float goes ahead.
It comes just days after another London IPO was announced, with Princes Group, the tinned food producer, unveiling its plans to go public on Friday.
Last week, electrical grid developer Fermi completed a dual listing in London and New York, getting a warm welcome, while there was also demand for MedPal AI plc (AIM:MPAL) when it floated on AIM on Tuesday.
Beauty Tech Group also last week priced its LSE debut at a valuation of up to £320 million when it lists next month.
Two weeks before, Ebury, the fintech backed by Santander, revived plans for a potential £2 billion IPO in the Square Mile too.
7.29am: Aston Martin warns on profits
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) has issued a profit warning, as car sales came in lower than expected in the third quarter.
The sports car maker delivered around 1,430 vehicles on a wholesale basis, below prior guidance and 12.9% below last year’s figure, with retail sales down to a similar degree.
For the full year, volumes are expected to decline by a "mid-to-high single-digit percentage" compared with last year’s 6,030 units, with earnings and cash flow also lower than previously guided.
It said this reflected weaker demand in North America and Asia-Pacific, including Greater China.
7.18am: Slow start for FTSE predicted, but Japanese stocks soar
The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week at a bit of a standstill after ascending to new heights last week, while traders' eyes are caught by overseas action at the start of the week.
London's blue-chip index has been called 2 points lower on Monday, after ending last week at 9,491.25, up 206.43 points or 2.2% over the five days.
Wall Street finished the week on a flat note, after US official jobs numbers was not released due to the government shutdown, with further economic data scheduled for this week also likely to be delayed if the shutdown continues.
In Asia this morning, Japan's Nikkei catches the eye with a 4.9% surge, after the ruling LDP party chose Sanae Takaichi as its next leader.
"She is now set to become the country’s next prime minister and is known for her preference for easy fiscal and monetary policies," says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya Swissquote Bank.
"Easier fiscal policy and more government spending are, of course, not great news for Japanese bonds, which have already seen yields rise steadily since 2020."
Japanese bonds have sold off, sending yields higher, which Ozkardeskaya points out "can threaten global risk appetite by narrowing the risk premium between JGBs and other assets".
"Still, strong dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and ongoing AI enthusiasm should help maintain appetite for US equities, while European markets may continue to benefit from the positive echoes of the global AI rally and softer BoJ bets joining the dovish Fed narrative."