Citi has kept faith with Unilever PLC (LSE:ULVR) despite a tricky near-term outlook, reiterating its “buy” rating and £52 target price even as it warns that third-quarter growth may leave investors underwhelmed.
The broker expects underlying sales growth of 3.6% in the quarter, dented by headwinds in goods and services tax changes and in Latin America. That, it says, is unlikely to be enough to shift sentiment meaningfully in the short run.
The bigger question for 2026 is whether Unilever can consistently deliver volume and mix growth above 2%, alongside 1% pricing in developed markets.
That metric matters because it would give the group a buffer against volatile emerging-market currencies, particularly after the spin-off of its ice cream division.
Sustained volume growth, Citi argues, depends on making progress in the United States, where the gains so far are concentrated in just a handful of brands benefiting from distribution expansion.
Citi does see long-term value in the shares, pointing to eventual recovery in emerging markets and the potential for better capital allocation.
But compared with rivals such as L’Oréal and Galderma, it thinks visibility on earnings is clearer elsewhere over the next six months.
For now, Unilever still has support from the analysts, but the onus is on management to prove it can turn steady sales into dependable, “hard currency” earnings growth.
The shares were flat at 4,389p.