The Australian sharemarket is set for a muted start to October, with futures pointing 11 points lower (-0.12%) at 8:30 am AEST. Wall Street finished higher overnight, with the Dow closing at another record and the S&P 500 within sight of all-time highs, but the mood remains cautious as the US government edges toward a shutdown.
Closer to home, a surprise ban on new BHP iron ore cargoes to China could dominate today’s local trade.
Wall Street climbs but shutdown risk builds
US equities rallied into the close, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% and the Dow edging 0.2% higher to fresh record territory. Healthcare led the advance, buoyed by drugmakers after reports Pfizer and the White House struck a deal on drug prices. Tech also contributed, with Alphabet on track for its best quarter in two decades.
The September quarter wrapped on a strong note — the S&P 500 gained 7.8%, the Nasdaq rose 11.2% and the Dow added 5.2%. Still, markets are bracing for disruption as Congress remains deadlocked on a funding bill. While past shutdowns have had limited economic impact, this one threatens to delay key data releases, including Friday’s payrolls report, leaving the Federal Reserve with less guidance on policy.
Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year holding at 4.15%, while the US dollar softened modestly.
ASX yesterday: RBA steady, resources do the heavy lifting
The ASX 200 slipped 14 points (-0.16%) on Tuesday to 8,849 after the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected. Governor Michele Bullock struck a cautious tone, acknowledging inflation risks but offering no firm policy signals.
Materials (+0.9%) and industrials (+0.2%) were the only sectors in the green, with BHP, Rio and Fortescue lending support. Energy was the laggard, down 1.6% as oil prices eased. Financials (-0.5%), staples (-0.5%) and technology (-0.7%) also weighed.
Small caps outperformed, with the Small Ords up 0.14%.
Commodities and currencies: gold firmer, oil slides
Gold extended its record-breaking run, rising 0.7% to US$3,859 an ounce, buoyed by safe-haven demand ahead of the US shutdown deadline. Silver eased 0.6% but remains up more than 50% year-to-date.
Iron ore held steady around US$105/t, though the focus will be on BHP after reports China has temporarily halted new shipments from the miner in a dispute over pricing. Analysts note BHP accounts for roughly 12% of China’s imports — a share that will be difficult to replace.
Copper slipped 0.6% to US$9,654 per tonne, while nickel also edged lower. Oil prices fell sharply for a second day, with Brent down 1.6% to US$66 per barrel and WTI at US$62.4/bbl, on reports OPEC+ could consider boosting output.
The Australian dollar was steady at US66.1 cents, while Bitcoin hovered above US$114,000 after a volatile week.
What’s on today
It’s a busy start to the month for corporate calendars, with AGM season kicking off and the year’s busiest slate of IPOs ahead. Today, Ryman Healthcare (RYM) lists on the ASX, while AMCIL (AMH) and Mirrabooka (MIR) hold annual meetings.
Dividend payouts include Santos, Worley, Inghams and Eagers Automotive, while Cedar Woods (CWP) and Nick Scali (NCK) trade ex-dividend.
In light early small-cap newsflow this morning, Tamboran Resources Corporation (ASX:TBN, NYSE:TBN, OTC:TBNRL) announced plans to acquire Falcon Oil & Gas, creating a ~2.9 million-acre Beetaloo Basin leader. The cash-and-scrip deal (US$172m) would consolidate Tamboran ahead of Phase 2 and implies a pro forma market cap north of US$500m; completion is targeted for early 2026, subject to approvals.
And archTIS Ltd (ASX:AR9, OTCQB:ARHLF) has completed its A$15.8m acquisition of US data-security firm Spirion, expanding its US footprint and adding sensitive data discovery and classification tools to its portfolio.
On the data front, local industry activity and housing figures are due this morning, while Eurozone inflation and US ISM manufacturing are the global highlights later tonight. Markets will remain focused on whether the US government shuts down at midnight Washington time.