Population growth is not the sort of thing most investors check against their grocery bill, but it matters to supermarkets.
Shore Capital points out that the UK population grew by more than 1% last year to about 69.3 million, with net migration adding more than 700,000 people.
That means more mouths to feed, and by extension, more steady demand in the grocery aisles.
The broker reckons this demographic tailwind translates into organic grocery volume growth of 0.5% to 1% a year through to 2029.
On top of that, it expects food price inflation of 1% to 2% annually, underpinned by consumer interest in health, provenance and wellbeing.
The result is forecast value growth of 2% to 5% a year across the grocery sector. In calendar 2025, it expects the number to come in at the upper end of that range.
Competition remains fierce, with the German discounters still accounting for most new store space.
Even so, Shore argues that revenue growth should continue to exceed the rate of new capacity, a dynamic that supports cash generation and margins.
Productivity programmes, strong balance sheets and negative working capital all reinforce the case for supermarkets to keep paying dividends and, in some cases, buying back shares.
The report also highlights risks, including the planned reform of business rates in 2026, which could put pressure on large-format stores.
Yet the population story looks baked in, and with 2 to 3 million more people expected by the end of the decade, Shore sees the sector well placed to cope.