The copper market is well placed to withstand the disruption caused by the suspension of operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, despite its size and significance, broker Panmure Gordon said in a note.
Analyst Tom Price said that while Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine, the event’s estimated loss of around 250,000 tonnes of contained copper production over 2025–26 represents only about 1.5% of global mine supply. That level of disruption, he noted, falls comfortably within the industry’s typical “disruption allowance” of 3–6%, already factored into most supply models.
Price described the site failure as a tragic event but said the market will likely adjust “within weeks or months,” with copper’s price action constrained by weak demand and macroeconomic influences.
The broker expects global copper consumption to contract by around 3% this year, as Chinese growth moderates and US-led trade tariffs weigh on demand.
Panmure Liberum continues to forecast an average copper price of US$9,360 per tonne in 2025, easing to a long-term real price of US$6,420 per tonne.
While the Grasberg outage may drive short-term price spikes, the firm said the wider copper market remains balanced and dominated by macroeconomic rather than fundamental supply-demand factors.