- FTSE 100 up 29 points to 9,314
- GSK rises as CEO change announced
- AstraZeneca to tweak New York listing
- Gold miners lifted as precious metal prices keep rising
4.06pm: Solid day for FTSE
If things stay as they are it will be a solid day for the FTSE 100, which skirted close to all-time highs in morning trading before running out of puff as a fall in oil prices dragged down heavyweights Shell and BP.
Banks and defensive stocks are also among the fallers.
But putting the London index into positive territory are miners, thanks to rising copper prices. Antofagasta is top of the leaderboard, up 5.6%, with Anglo American, Glencore and Rio Tinto also all between 1.8% and 2.5%.
Pharma giant GSK rose as CEO Emma Walmsley announced she is stepping down, having presided over a transformative eight-plus year but not seen much in the way of share price improvement.
3.32pm: Oil weighs
Oil prices are down fairly sharply today and are weighing on the Footsie.
After rising to around an eight-week high last week, Brent crude is down 2.7% to $68.23, while US WTI is down 2.9% at $63.79.
Prices rallied strongly last week as Ukraine continued to launch successful attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Concerns that supply could be interrupted for a significant period proved to be the case, with Russia announcing an extension to a ban on gasoline exports, while adding a partial ban on diesel exports until the year-end.
"Offsetting this," says analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation, "was news that Iraq and Kurdistan had agreed to reopen a joint pipeline for the first time since March 2023, enabling an estimated 230,000 barrels per day for export.
"In the meantime, demand growth continues to slow, as countries switch to alternatives and increasingly move to electrify their power grids."
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, however, see geopolitical risks as becoming harder to ignore for oil markets, with the potential for an “October surprise” escalating amid tensions involving Russia, Iran and OPEC's spare capacity strategy.
RBC expects OPEC+ to agree on another modest supply increase at its next meeting on 5 October.
"We view a repeat of the incremental 137 kb/d addition for November as the most likely outcome.
"Given that many producers, excluding Saudi Arabia, have essentially hit their production ceilings, future OPEC+ supply increases will be materially lower than the announced headline numbers."
Iran is also "back in focus", RBC says, with sanctions back in place and a "growing likelihood" of further Israeli strikes on military and nuclear sites as well key personnel before the end of the year or early in 2026.
2.55pm: Mixed open on Wall St
US stocks opened with mixed performance, with the Dow Jones edged down 0.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq outperformed, rising 0.8%.
On the Nasdaq, Nvidia is up 3% to help drive the gain, with only Apple in the red from the top 10 largest names.
The Dow is weighted down by falls for Chevron, Boeing and McDonalds.
Back in London, almost all the gains for the FTSE have evaporated as Shell and BP, along with tobacco companies, Coca-Cola HBC, Unilever and Rentokil fall.
2.12pm: Reeves reactions
Some responses to the Chancellor's speech.
Michael Moore, boss of the British Private Equity & Venture Capital Association (BVCA) said Rachel Reeves "was absolutely right to say if growth is the challenge investment is the solution.
"We welcome her commitment to continue to push ahead with the ambitious pensions reforms that are so important to getting capital to fast growing businesses across the UK.
"Businesses leaders across the UK will also welcome her backing for the infrastructure and energy investment the country needs to support our growing businesses.
"The EU-UK youth mobility scheme could be a vital step in helping the UK to attract the brightest and best to live and work here and deliver growth."
The impact on financial markets from Reeves’ speech has been minimal, gilt yields are slightly lower across the curve, and the pound is the third strongest currency in the G10 FX space today.
"No doubt Reeves’ speech was designed to be as market-friendly as possible," says Kathleen Brooks at XTB, "especially after the rise in yields last week, when left-leaning Andy Burnham threatened to oust Keir Starmer as PM.
"By not including unfunded spending pledges in this speech, for example, lifting the two-child benefit cap, Reeves has managed to placate the markets while hammering home her fiscal stability message to a restless Labour party."
However, Brooks says the speech "may have some impact on markets," as suggests Reeves "wants to maintain fiscal credibility, and she will not go mad on public spending at the upcoming budget".
That said, she is not confident that the political and economic risk reflected in UK gilts will evaporate in coming weeks.
Reeves gave no direct suggestions about she is set to fill the potentially larger fiscal hole in November.
Mention of tough choices ahead are being seen by some as laying the groundwork for tax rises, says Brooks.
"Reeves and her team were trying to use this conference to put forward the argument that fiscal restraint can win elections.
"She did this to some extent during Monday’s speech, but overall, it was lacking in any central theme or detail for markets to grab hold of."
1.49am: Wall Street looking positive
US stocks are looking like they will extend their good momentum from Friday.
The Nasdaq 100 is expected to open around 0.7% higher, with the S&P 500 called up 0.5% and the Dow Jones predicted to rise 0.5%.
Looking to this week, the big event "might not actually happen", as the payrolls report on Friday could be a high-profile victim of a potential government shutdown if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a short-term funding resolution by midnight tomorrow night, says macro strategist Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.
This brought back memories of October 2013, when a shutdown meant the September jobs report did not arrive until the 22nd of the month.
Macroeconomic highlights today, he says, are Fed speakers Waller, Bostic and Hammock.
1.30pm: Reeves defends borrowing and tax choices
In her speech at Labour's conference, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has attacked potential threats to her boss and her economic choices.
Andy Burnham, a mooted potential Labour leader in waiting, said last week that the government should not be "in hock to bond markets".
But it is also likely to be aimed at others on the left of the party who think similarly.Reeves said: "Even now with the global uncertainty that we have seen ripple through financial markets, there are still critics out there who all too readily forget the consequences of reckless economic choices.
"Never forget that in two hours one Friday, almost three years ago, the Conservatives under Liz Truss sent mortgage costs spiralling, put pensions in peril and consigned their party not just to defeat, but to utter irrelevance.
"That was a warning. And the British people will not forgive any party that forgives it. Conference, let us reaffirm our commitment that we will never, ever do what they did to ordinary working people in this country.
"But I do know that there are still people who peddle the idea that we can just abandon economic responsibility, cast off any constraints on public spending. They’re wrong. Dangerously so. And we need to be honest about what that choice would mean."
She said "when spending gets out of control, when market confidence is lost, that doesn’t just show up in some OBR reports and some difficult headlines a few months later. It is felt immediately in the growing cost of essentials, and rising interest rates."
1.05am: It's in the game
Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ:EA) has agreed to be acquired in a $55 billion all-cash transaction led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners, marking what would be the largest leveraged buyout in Wall Street history.
The takeover values EA at $210 per share.
Shares of the video game publisher, known for blockbuster titles such as Madden NFL, The Sims and Battlefield, surged 15% on Friday to close at $193.35 after the Wall Street Journal reported a deal was close.
Trading in EA was briefly halted Monday after a further 6% gain in premarket trading.
12.28pm: Support for Reeves and Starmer
UK politics is the subject for UBS economist Dean Turner today, as he notes the recent market volatility around the prospect that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could be facing a possible leadership challenge, only just after a year into his time in office.
Gilts sold off and the pound wobbled last week.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has "gotten off to a shaky start in her first year in office, but credit where it is due, everyone understands her job is not easy", says Turner, and the "iron-clad" commitment to her fiscal rules "is not in doubt (although investors would appreciate more headroom against them) and this something for which we should be appreciative".
Wobbles in the bond market are because alleged challengers to Startmer and Reeves seem to want higher borrowing.
"Ahead of the budget, it doesn’t seem likely that the speculation and volatility will subside. If the prime minister can assert his authority and regain the narrative at the Labour Party conference, this may offer some relief," says Turner.
"Alas, I fear that his opponents – in his own party – may continue to snipe, having had some success recently.
"As investors, it’s important to focus on volatility, but even more important on what to do with it.
"We can never be certain when it comes to politics, but the prime minister and his chancellor are likely to remain in office for the foreseeable future.
"And with them will be their commitment to get the public finances on track.
"It is not going to be easy, but if they continue to deliver on their plans, then with time, the relative fiscal strengths of the UK should start to be recognised.
"The chancellor could in November help that process along with some bold moves on (supposedly untouchable) tax changes and perhaps by genuinely turning the budget into an annual event rather than the semi-annual affair it currently is, but this doesn’t seem likely.
"Even without these moves, national debt should stay on a path that keeps it below 100% of GDP by continuing to close the deficit.
"Few other countries in the focus of the bond vigilantes can boast such numbers.
"When the volatility subsides, we believe the pound and gilts should once again find some support from the relatively healthy fiscal picture."
11.56am: Broker upgrades
Admiral Group Plc (LSE:ADM) is up near the top of the Footsie risers, up 2.6%, thanks to an upgrade from Jefferies.
The insurer's "historically elevated multiple had long deterred investors" but analysts at the US broker point to a 45% relative de-rating versus the sector and improving momentum on motor pricing, "we now see a compelling entry point into a well-recognised compounder".
Elsewhere, UBS has upgraded DFS Furniture PLC (LSE:DFS) to 'buy' from 'neutral', lifting its price target to 210p from 130p — a 36% upside from Friday’s close at 154p.
Shares in DFS are down 1.3% though.
Analysts said the retailer is at a "growth inflection point" following a 10% rise in order intake, giving strong visibility for sales into the first half of its 2026 fiscal year.
11.11am: FTSE near high
The FTSE is only around 10 points from its all time high now.
London's blue-chip index is outperforming mainland European peers, with Germany's DAX up 0.1% and France's CAC 40 less than that, while the Spanish and Italian benchmarks are both in the red.
Miners, pharma, housebuilders, insurers, defence and financials are all dotted around the FTSE leaderboard.
10.50am: Reeves and Budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks today at the Labour Party conference.
"Watch for plenty of market-soothing talk after last week’s rise in yields," says Neil Wilson at Saxo.
Speaking to the BBC yesterday, Reeves has strong signals that she will bring out some tax rises in November's Budget, claiming "the world has changed" as a reason for a U-turn on her assurances over the past year that there would be no more tax increases.
Speaking on the BBC at the weekend, she said she knew the Office for Budget Responsibility is reviewing productivity numbers and "we have to respond to those".
She also laid blame on the costs and effects of wars in Ukraine and Gaza, rising global borrowing costs and US tariffs.
While not confirming that large tax rises were in the pipeline, Reeves told the BBC that financial markets should be reassured that she would "make the numbers add up" and she remained committed to fiscal discipline.
Since then, PM Keir Starmer has said Labour's commitments around VAT "do stand" but simultaneously refused to rule out a VAT hike.
The Labour manifesto promised to "not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT".
Reeves has been back on the Beeb, and when questioned further about the possibility of VAT hikes, says: "Judge me on my record."
With the OBR productivity downgrade, Reeves is expected to face a new 'black hole' of £20-30 billion that she needs to find funding for.
10.14am: FTSE and pound both up
Up 50 points at 9,334.6, the FTSE 100 is not far from its all-time intraday high of 9,357.51.
GSK has given back some gains, with Antofagasta, up on strength in copper prices, Metlen Energy and JD Sports now the top three risers.
The pound is up this morning, climbing 0.3% versus the US dollar to 1.343 after last week's slide.
9.14am: AstraZeneca to dual-list, Revolut too
Shares in AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN) have risen today said it plans to directly list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange instead of American depository shares (ADSes) though it would remain listed and headquartered in London.
There has also been news that fin-tech giant Revolut is reportedly considering a dual listing in London and New York.
"The British capital is enjoying some positive news at last which helps ease fears that London is losing its dominance as a key global financial hub," says market analyst Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor.
"There’s been a dearth of IPOs in recent years in the UK and a number of high profile decisions by companies either to delist of shift their primary listings away from London including Flutter, Ashtead, Tui and Just Eat Takeaway.
"However the latest developments from AstraZeneca and Revolut help to reshape the narrative and prove that there could be a reignition of optimism towards London and that companies still believe that it has power as an attractive listing location.
"Perhaps London has suffered with an image problem since Brexit, but that could be about to change for the City.”
Neil Wilson at Saxo says that while the AstraZeneca news is being billed as simplification of its listing structure "and will undoubtedly improve liquidity.. it’s also a bit of a knock-back for London".
"Can it get the best of both worlds? It wants to improve visibility and tap the deeper markets of the US while retaining its British and Swedish DNA.
"I think there is probably relief that it’s not pursuing a primary listing in New York, but the decision is hardly a ringing endorsement of London.
"It reflects the fundamental, structural issues in the UK for the largest globally-oriented stocks - the depth and liquidity of its capital markets is falling short of what's on offer across the pond."
8.39am: GSK shares jump on news of new CEO
It's surely not nice for the ego of a CEO if the share price jumps on the news that you're leaving.
Emma Walmsley was the first ever female CEO of a major pharmaceutical company when she took the top job at GSK almost nine years ago, notes analyst Derren Nathan at Hargreaves Lansdown.
One of her "key achievements" was the demerger of Haleon, he says. "That not just strengthened GSK’s balance sheet but also sharpened the group’s focus on speciality medicines and vaccines.
"There’s an exciting pipeline ahead and, this year alone, GSK’s on track for five major regulatory approvals. Her reign also saw a line drawn in the sand in the Zantac litigation case, removing a key financial uncertainty."
GSK's share price performance has been lacklustre since Walmsley got the CEO role in 2017, with the stock trading at a significant discount to the peer group.
"Although her record of delivering on financial guidance has been strong, the company’s growth rates remain stuck in single digit territory," he says.
While there's a $40 billion sales target in place for 2031, "analyst forecasts suggest some doubts still linger", says Nathan and "it will be down to the leadership of CEO designate Luke Miels to convince the market. He’s been handed a business in good shape and, if he can deliver on this goal, shareholders stand to be well rewarded."
8.15am: FTSE flies to five week high
The FTSE 100 has breezed back above the 9,300 mark this morning, flying 46 points higher to 9,331.
This is almost a six-week high for the index.
Topping the early leaderboard is GSK, up 3.2% as news of its change of CEO seems to have gone down well.
Precious metals miner Fresnillio and Endeavour Mining are also up there, along with copper giant Antofagasta, insurer Admiral and defence names Babcock and BAE Systems.
7.42am: Gold keeps on going
Gold prices are up 1.3% to another record high this morning, trading above $3,818 per oz.
This morning was the first time prices have crossed the $3,800/oz mark.
As a reminder, gold was trading around $3,450/oz a month ago and at the start of the year was around $2,630/oz
7.33am: GSK CEO change
GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) chief executive Dame Emma Walmsley will step down from 1 January next year after almost nine years in the role.
The pharmaceutical group has promoted its chief commercial officer, Luke Miels, as CEO designate.
The Australian joined the FTSE 100 company in 2017, the year that Walmsley became CEO, and in his current role he is responsible for the FTSE 100 company's portfolio of medicines and vaccines.
He joined from AstraZeneca, where he was executive vice president of their European business and, before that, was head of global product and portfolio strategy, global medical affairs and corporate affairs. Prior to that he was head of Asia for Roche, based in Shanghai and Singapore.
7.16am: Strong start for FTSE 100 expected
The FTSE 100 is predicted to hit the ground running on Monday, continuing its good momentum from the end of last week, while gold prices also continued to reach more new record highs.
On the futures market, the London benchmark has been called 38 points higher, after it finished last week at 9,284.83, up 70 points on the day and made a positive gain of 68 over the week.
Asian markets are mostly positive this morning, with the Nikkei the exception.
"Last week ended on a positive note despite fresh tariff threats on pharma, trucks and kitchen cabinets," says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations to help keep investor mood sweet after a week of hesitation, she says, with the S&P 500 rebounding after a three-day retreat.
"There’s no guarantee tariffs will stay, and no guarantee they won’t be doubled; they’ve simply become an increasingly meaningless negotiation tactic, just another bump in the road."
Investor attention, she says, now shifts to the US non-farm payrolls data at the end of this week and a potential government shutdown on October 1.