Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
RBA Rate Decision
The RBA’s third-last monetary policy meeting for the year transpires on Tuesday, and while many are still hoping for at least one more rate cut before year’s end, it seems unlikely that we’ll see anything beyond a pause this week.
Last week’s CPI figures made it clear that Australia still hasn’t landed the knockout blow on inflation. Headline CPI rose 3.0% year on year in August, edging up from 2.8% in July and sitting right at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band. That stickiness will add some unease for policymakers hoping price growth was cooling more decisively.
The board has been clear that it wants more evidence of inflation easing before cutting again, and while the RBA places more weight on quarterly CPI, the next quarterly print lands just before the November board meeting. Monthly figures, while volatile, are indicating that our next quarterly print may quickly reduce the expectation of cuts in 2025.
Inflation is a difficult beast to tame, and given RBA Chair Michele Bullock’s hawkish approach to her role, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a cautious approach to monetary policy in these last few months of the year.
Nike Earnings
Nike will post its latest set of earnings this Tuesday, US time. Q1 FY2026 has been a high-pressure period for the world’s largest sportswear brand, after last quarter’s results disappointed overall but pointed towards a more promising future under freshly reinstated CEO Elliott Hill.
The big issue that continues to dog the household brand is inventory woes, with the ongoing need to reduce stock that’s fast approaching obsolescence. Discounting is the obvious approach, but it puts pressure on the company to move old stock at compelling price points while also improving margins and restoring consumer hype around new releases. That’s a balancing act even the most weathered brand leaders would find challenging.
Will we see a brand recovery in this set of results? It’s unlikely, but I do think we’ll see momentum in the right direction – whether that’s enough with competitors already gaining a significant foothold in Nike’s territory. Nike's unmatched brand equity and global footprint provide a strong foundation, but continued execution each quarter right now, will be critical to determining whether this iconic brand can regain its stride.
US Non-Farm Payrolls
Earlier in September, August’s US Non-Farm Payroll data shocked analysts, coming in at a meagre 22k, compared to forecasts of around 75k, while the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3%. This was after an already alarming dip in July’s figures. While Friday’s data drop will likely reinforce the bleak narrative, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, but so is the labour market. In this scenario, the Fed has to address the larger of the two risks, which is the softening jobs market.
There are a few crucial factors to consider in the coming months. The aspiration in the White House is that hardline tariffs will bring manufacturing back to local shores, which will likely happen in some capacity, but not to the extent that it will move the job market needle very far towards the green. Similarly, significant revisions to the H-1B visa scheme’s fees are intended to motivate US companies to hire local. This probably will work short-term, especially in tech-focused industries, but there is still a long way to go if the US Government hopes to reverse the recent month-on-month downtrend.
For investors, weakening jobs data saw the Fed hand down its first rate cut of 2025 and put two further reductions on the cards for the rest of this year. Stocks have held up well amid high rates and a resilient economy, but that resilience could quickly fade if the labour market shows real cracks.