Copper supply disruptions have a habit of coming in bunches. The latest is at Grasberg in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper mine, where a collapse in early September has forced Freeport-McMoRan to slash production guidance.
The scale is hefty. UBS reckons the mine will deliver about 500,000 tonnes less copper across 2025 and 2026 than previously expected, with output down 200,000 tonnes this year and 260,000 next.
Grasberg should recover by 2027, but in the meantime, the hit is larger than the closure of Cobre Panama two years ago.
That matters because copper balances were already tight. Mine supply growth in 2026 is now pegged at barely 1%, once disruption allowances are factored in.
At the same time, refined output – the metal smelters actually sell – has been running ahead of mine supply, leading to a glut in the US. The Grasberg outage increases the pressure for smelters to cut back, which would shift the refined market into deficit more quickly.
Demand is holding up. China’s grid investment and energy storage systems are soaking up metal, even as solar and appliance demand slows.
In the West, manufacturing and construction remain weak but not worsening, while copper’s role in the energy transition provides a steady floor.
For UK investors, the names to watch are Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), which remains a pure play on Chilean copper, and Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), with its sprawling mining and trading operations.
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) also has copper in the mix, though the recent Teck deal has left the shares more of a conglomerate play.
The result is a familiar story: supply shocks keep arriving, while demand grinds on. For investors, the near-term noise on tariffs and geopolitics is less important than the underlying fact that the market looks tighter heading into 2026.
And while the larger copper miners should continue to attract the attention of investors, there are a few smaller operators and explorers that are also making progress.
Among them are Gunnison Copper Corp (TSX:GCU, OTCQB:GCUMF), which recently reported its first copper cathode sales from the fully operational Johnson Camp Mine in Arizona.
The initial sale totalled 225,371 pounds, generating gross proceeds of about US$1.05 million at an average price of US$4.64 per pound.
Gunnison's Johnson Camp Asset, which is fully funded by Rio Tinto’s Nuton LLC, has a production capacity of up to 25 million pounds of finished copper cathode annually.