Oil’s twilight may be further away than expected. BP PLC (LSE:BP.) said Thursday it now sees global demand rising until 2030—five years later than its forecast a year ago—blaming slower progress on energy efficiency and carbon-cutting efforts.
In its latest Energy Outlook, BP mapped two futures. The “Current Trajectory” assumes today’s policies hold, with demand reaching 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 before sliding to 83 million by 2050.
A weaker efficiency push could lift that peak to 106 million by 2035. By contrast, its “Below 2-Degrees” pathway, consistent with Paris climate goals, has demand topping out this year at 102.2 million barrels and collapsing to 33.8 million by mid-century.
Emissions in the base case stay flat through 2030 before dropping 25% by 2050, while the greener scenario sees a 90% cut.
Natural gas use grows in Asia, with liquefied natural gas exports led by the US and the Middle East.