Goldman Sachs economists expect US productivity growth to accelerate further as increases in artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and investment boost capital per worker and improve efficiency, they wrote in a research note published on Monday.
They cautioned, though, that while it is likely premature to fully attribute these developments to AI, the economists suggest that the recent productivity rebound in the US reflected a strong pace of technological innovation.
The economists expect US productivity growth to average about 1.7% through 2029 and 1.9% in the early 2030s, while forecasting potential GDP growth will likely average about 2.1% in 2025 to 2029 before accelerating to 2.3% in the early 2030s as AI boosts growth further.
This is in sharp contrast to labor productivity growth that averaged 1.2% per year pre-pandemic.
They expect productivity gains from AI to boost GDP significantly, by about 0.4% through the next few years and 1.5% cumulatively as adoption rises over the long run.
And while the economists anticipate that frictional unemployment is likely to rise temporarily as AI adoption increases, it would further boost labor productivity by increasing the amount of capital per worker.
The Goldman Sachs economists see both positive and negative risks to their projections. On the positive side, AI adoption could happen faster than expected, which could lead to a significant acceleration in productivity growth that eventually makes human input in knowledge-based work tasks redundant.
On the negative side, AI capex could underperform, population growth could slow more abruptly than anticipated, or scientific and technological progress begins to decelerate.