UBS has warned that Pfizer Inc's (NYSE:PFE, ETR:PFE) $7.3 billion acquisition of Metsera will sharpen competition for Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) in the fast-growing obesity drug market, particularly towards the end of the decade.
The bank kept its 'neutral' rating on Novo shares with a DKr340 price target, implying 12.5% downside from the current level.
Metsera’s pipeline includes GLP-1 and amylin monotherapies as well as combinations, with lead candidate MET-097i expected to enter phase III trials within a year. Pfizer is aiming for a 2028–2029 launch.
UBS said early data suggest the drugs have competitive weight-loss efficacy, favourable tolerability, and differentiation through monthly dosing and scalable oral peptide technology.
While Novo has established dominance with its Wegovy and Ozempic brands, UBS said Pfizer’s approach could pose a “direct challenge” thanks to Metsera’s half-life extension technology, which allows for less frequent injections and more efficient oral delivery compared with Novo’s SNAC platform.
Pfizer will initially focus on obesity alone rather than broader comorbidity trials, suggesting the near-term rivalry will be in the direct-to-patient segment.
The global obesity drug market is forecast to hit $150 billion by the early 2030s, fuelled by GLP-1 therapies from Novo, Eli Lilly and now potentially Pfizer.