Gold’s climb has already taken it to Deutsche Bank’s old 2026 target of $3,700 an ounce, but the bank thinks the run has further to go.
Its new call is for an average of $4,000 next year, with silver tipped to reach $45 from a previous $40.
The bullish case rests on several planks. The first is monetary policy. After three interest rate cuts this year, Deutsche’s economists see risks that the Federal Reserve will go further in 2026 rather than stop, despite its base case of holding rates steady.
That matters because lower US rates tend to weaken the dollar, and a softer dollar has historically been the strongest single driver of higher gold prices.
Second, central bank appetite remains extraordinary. Official demand for bullion is running at roughly twice the pace seen in the decade to 2021, with China responsible for much of the buying.
Deutsche estimates that demand could hit 900 tons in 2026, comfortably above trend. That has created a premium above “fair value” models that the bank thinks will persist.
Supply is not keeping pace. Recycling of old gold is running about 4% lower than expected this year, removing a potential brake on prices.
Meanwhile, positioning indicators are not stretched: exchange-traded funds still hold about 17 million ounces less than they did at the 2020 peak, and speculative futures bets are not extended on one- or two-year views.
The negatives are not trivial. Wall Street is buoyant, with Deutsche’s own S&P 500 target lifted to 7,000 on the back of strong corporate earnings.
Equities typically draw capital away from defensive assets such as gold. Seasonal patterns are another hurdle: the fourth quarter has usually been the weakest for bullion over the past decade and beyond.
And if the Fed does indeed hold rates through 2026, as Deutsche’s base case assumes, that would take away one prop.
There are also left-field risks. A resurgence in jewellery demand, which has fallen as official buying surged, could add another layer of competition for supply.
On the other hand, smoother trade relations and a firmer macro backdrop in the US could temper safe-haven flows.
Silver, often pulled along in gold’s slipstream, is expected to keep pace.
It is in its fifth consecutive year of physical deficit, while inventories on the Comex exchange have risen sharply, possibly linked to the US classification of silver as a critical mineral.
Deutsche thinks the imbalance should allow silver to track gold higher, even if it remains more volatile.
With the metal already outperforming model-based fair values by about 13% a year since 2022, Deutsche’s revised forecast assumes that official demand remains strong.
That is a big assumption, but for now, the tide of central bank buying shows little sign of ebbing.
Gold was changing hands for $3,718 per ounce on Wednesday afternoon, down 0.2%.
Proactive’s gold picks
Arizona Gold & Silver Inc (TSX-V:AZS, OTCQB:AZASF) is advancing the Philadelphia Project in Arizona, today reporting the highest-grade and thickest gold intercept to date at the property. Hole PC25-156 returned 9.04 grams per ton (g/t) gold and 34 g/t silver over 20.43 meters from 320.73 meters depth.
G Mining Ventures Corp (TSX:GMIN, OTCQX:GMINF) is advancing several gold projects, including Oko West in Guyana and Gurupi in Brazil. The company recently reported significant exploration results from Oko West, including 14 metres of 4.38 g/t gold.
Northern Superior Resources Inc. (TSX-V:SUP, OTCQX:NSUPF) is focused on the Chibougamau Gold Camp in Quebec, this summer acquiring three new properties to expand its footprint to about 68,500 hectares. In July, the company announced that it has signed a binding term sheet with TomaGold Corporation to acquire the Hazeur, Monster Lake East, and Monster Lake West properties.
Sonoro Gold Corp (TSX-V:SGO, OTCQB:SMOFF) is developing the Cerro Caliche gold project in Mexico, recently closing an oversubscribed private placement for gross proceeds of C$2 million. The Cerro Caliche gold project is in the final permitting stage for a proposed open-pit, heap leach mining operation, according to the company.
West Africa-focused precious metals miner Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF) is on track to meet its full-year production targets after reporting strong results for the first half of 2025, posting production of 647,000 ounces of gold. Endeavour’s production guidance for 2025 is 1,110,000 to 1,260,000 ounces, with costs expected to remain in a range of $1,150 to $1,350 per ounce.
Another West Africa-focused miner, Thor Explorations Ltd (TSX-V:THX, AIM:THX, OTC:THXPF), is exploring and developing mineral properties across Nigeria, Senegal and Burkina Faso. It recently secured full ownership of the Douta gold project in Senegal from its JV partner.
TNR Gold Corp (TSX-V:TNR, OTC:TRRXF) provides investors with exposure to gold through its 90% stake in the Shotgun Gold porphyry project in Alaska. The project has an inferred resource of 705,960 ounces of gold at 1.06 g/t, and mineralization appears to be open at depth and along strike.
Advancing high-potential gold projects in Wyoming, Nevada, and Idaho is U.S. Gold Corp (NASDAQ:USAU). At its CK Gold Project in Wyoming, the company has commenced pre-construction planning, engineering and procurement activities.
U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW) offers traders exposure to gold equities through its GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE Arca:GOAU). The fund is composed of companies engaged in precious metals production, either through direct mining or production or owning royalty or production streams.