Price remains the key driver of supermarket sales values as UK food inflation remains almost unabated, according to broker Shore Capital.
Sales of meat, fish and poultry rose more than 9% in the four weeks to 6 September 2025, NIQ data revealed, with official price data from the Office for National Statistics also revealing food prices were up 5.1% in August, the highest since January last year.
The NIQ supermarket industry research showed overall growth of 4.1%, driven mainly by higher prices, which Shore Cap analyst Clive Black meant unit sales were flat or slightly down.
Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) Food business has rebounded strongly, Black said, with 12-week annual sales growth of 8.5%.
J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) and Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) both continuing to gain market share, as sales rose 5.6% and 5.0% respectively. Waitrose saw 4.6% growth.
Online sales growth slowed to 1.9%, though Ocado Retail, the joint venture owned by M&S and Ocado Group PLC (LSE:OCDO), increased sales 14.3%.
By contrast, Asda is still losing market share despite its renewed focus on price through the Roll Back programme, which includes average reductions of 22%.
Black suggested Asda faces falling like-for-like volumes despite the scale of cuts, but he reckons Sainsbury’s and Tesco’s performance will support upcoming interim updates, saying Tesco is likely to raise the lower end of its April guidance range.
As for M&S, he said the NIQ numbers support his forecasts that the group will deliver a "robust" performance in the second half.