- FTSE 100 rises 12 points to 9,208
- UK inflation remained at 3.8% in August
- More US and UK companies announce transatlantic investments
4.58pm: Calm before Fed decision
The FTSE 100 edged higher as traders looked across the Atlantic to the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate cut decision due after London markets close. The index added 12 points to 9,208 points.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
"Markets aren’t reflecting much nervousness as they await tonight’s Fed decision, as volatility drops again and the Dow reclaims 46,000 in early trading," IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
"Equity markets continue to thumb their nose at traditional September weakness, at least on Wall Street, but the Dax has shown some signs of life after plunging to a four-month low yesterday."
3.51pm: Stock market picture a bit blurry
The Footsie was up almost 50 points an hour ago but, along with other European indices, has backed off fairly sharply.
On London's blue-chip index the main fallers are miners (gold and base metals), oilers and defence stocks.
Fresnillo, Anglo American, BAE Systems, Endeavour Mining, Shell, Rio Tinto, Antofagasta and Glencore make up eight of the top 10.
Across the pond, the picture is not exactly decisive, with Dow Jones up 0.6% with only four constituents in red, while the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.5%, with Nvidia down 2.6%, Amazon, Tesla, Broadcom and Palantir all down at least 1.7%.
3.40pm: Gold to $4k?
Gold’s climb has already taken it to $3,700 an ounce, and Deutsche Bank now thinks the run has further to go.
Its new call is for an average of $4,000 next year, with silver tipped to reach $45 from a previous $40.
This bull case rests on several planks, one of which is that the Federal Reserve cutting rates into 2026 as this will weaken the dollar, which is historically the strongest driver of higher gold prices.
Linked to the dollar, central bank appetite for gold remains extraordinary, with official demand for bullion running at roughly twice the pace seen in the decade to 2021, with China responsible for much of the buying.
2.45pm: Wall Street mixed, FTSE perks up
The FTSE 100 has perked up as Wall Street has opened in mixed fashion, with the Dow Jones skipping up 0.5%, whjile the Nasdaq slips 0.3% and the S&P 500 is flat.
Lifting the Dow are 1% gains for Walmart and Salesforce, along with Caterpillar and American Express.
Nvidia is exerting downward pressure, falling 1.3% on news of a new China chip ban.
Lyft jumped 10% after teaming up with Alphabet's Waymo to launch in Nashville. Waymo is also partnering with Uber to launch in Atlanta and Austin, Texas.
1.31pm: Wall Street calm before possible storm
Negligible movements in stock futures reflected "calm before a possible storm", said market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation, saying investors appear "reluctant to take on fresh exposure" ahead of the Fed’s rate call and updated policy outlook.
The CME’s FedWatch Tool is still attributing a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut this evening.
"Traders also remain attentive to potential dissents, with two policymakers having broken ranks at July’s meeting, raising the risk of division once again," Morrison said.
Any changes to the FOMC’s “dot plot” since the last economic projections back in June will be key, he said, along with Fed chair Jerome Powell's press conference half an hour after the rate decision and FOMC documents are released.
"It seems quite likely that he will be quizzed about threats to the US central bank’s independence, given the Trump administration's attack on the institution, and its individual members. Analysts should also be on the lookout for any comments the Fed may make about its balance sheet."
A slight increase in the VIX 'fear gauge' reflects increased caution, he adds, as market participants await guidance from the FOMC concerning the likely future direction of interest rates for this year and beyond.
"The VIX suggests some confidence in near-term stability. But with traders lightly positioned, volatility could pick up sharply if the Fed surprises markets."
12.09am: M&S and Centrica drive FTSE gains
The FTSE 100 is worming its way higher, slowly.
Strutting its stuff at the top is Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) after reports that the retailer is banking on new womenswear ranges helping its comeback from the cyberattack earlier this year.
A showcase of the new collection was shared in the run-up to London Fashion Week and some Charlie XCX-inspired 'brat' looks seemed to receive a warm welcome in the press.
Furthermore, NielsenIQ data showed grocery sales growth of 8.5% in the past 12 weeks.
Clive Black at Shore Capital says this was "a bit ahead of what we would have expected, noting about one-third of Ocado Retail Limited's sales are M&S brand too, not included in this score".
Next on the leaderboard, British Gas owner Centrica continued its good run this week after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equalweight’, making it "top pick" among UK utility shares.
US futures appear mixed at first glance, but a deep look shows that the moves are all less than 0.1%, as traders sit on their hands ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement later (2pm Eastern Time, which is 7pm in London).
11.16am: Nvidia hit by new China ban
A major China regulator has banned the country’s technology giants, such as TikTok owner ByteDance and Alibaba, from buying AI chips from Nvidia.
According to a FT report, the Cyberspace Administration of China said the company should stop testing and ordering special China-only AI chips that Nvidia makes with slightly limited capabilities, leading companies to halt work and orders.
Chinese regulators concluded that domestically made chips had attained performance comparable to those of the models, the report said.
Nvidia shares are down 1.3% in premarket trading.
Chris Beauchamp, IG analyst, says: "Investors were already on edge ahead of today's Fed meeting, but jitters will heighten further on this news about China and Nvidia.
"The shares have struggled for direction since the latest earnings report, and today's news puts further pressure on this market darling, given that around 40% of its sales are to China.
"There might be ways round a US export ban for Chinese companies, but a domestically-imposed one is much harder to avoid."
10.51am: Housing is currently a buyers market
A slowing in the rate of house price growth in July to 2.8%, the market "remains on a steady footing", says Jonathan Handford, managing director at estate agents Fine & Country.
"Sellers can take confidence from the fact that demand is holding up well, even as the pace of growth cools.
"Buyers are making the most of improved affordability and wider choice, and realistically priced properties are moving quickly."
He said the slight dip in house prices is "a reminder to sellers that being flexible on your asking price will help to ensure a faster sale in a market where buyers are still watching their budgets closely".
As shown in data from Rightmove, Nationwide and Halifax, there is a big regional difference, with prices in England up 2.7% (north seeing prices rise more than south), versus Scotland at 3.3%, Wales at 2.0%.
Looking ahead, Handford says if mortgage costs ease and levels of houses coming onto the market remains similar, this means "activity should remain robust into the autumn".
10.23am: Official house price data
Official house price data from the Office for National Statistics shows a rise of 2.8% in July compared to a year earlier, down from 3.6% in June.
Rents charged by private landlords rose 5.7% in August, down from 5.9% in July, the smallest level of rental growth since December 2022.
10.15am: Silver forecast upgraded
Gold stocks are down today, but UBS has upped its forecsast for silver.
Strategist Dominic Schnider at the Swiss bank noted that silver has surpassed the US$42/oz mark, marking a 14-year high, supported by record gold prices and strong investment inflows, despite a stumble in global industrial activity.
Having upped his gold outlook last week, Schnider says he is aligning his silver forecasts, now targeting US$44–47/oz by mid-2026.
"Additionally, as rate cuts progress and the industrial cycle turns up, we expect silver to outperform gold with the ratio between the two dropping further toward 80.
"Alongside the upgrade, we remind investors that silver has traded with double the volatility of gold historically, and higher prices are almost always associated with a higher gold price. So, holding silver requires much higher risk tolerance."
9.55am: Food inflation concerns
The announcement that food inflation continues to increase, "is concerning", says Dr Hannah Brinsden, at The Food Foundation, as it "will be impacting people's ability to afford food up and down the country".
She says climate shocks, geopolitics and energy prices are all playing a role in food inflation.
"What's clear is the government needs to take urgent action to build a more resilient UK food system that better protects us from these factors and ensures affordable nutritious food is available for all.
"Boosting local food systems and businesses, using public sector procurement, improved transparency and clear policies that level the playing field for businesses are all a must."
9.19am: London blue-chips outperformed by mid-caps
The FTSE 100 is holding in positive territory, with a bit of light fluctuating in the first hour, up just over 0.1% now.
London's mid-caps are up 0.3%, led by gains for Moonpig Group PLC (LSE:MOON) and The PRS REIT PLC (LSE:PRSR).
The online greetings card group reiterated guidance for the full year, while PRS has agreed to sell its whole portfolio of property assets to a fund being advised by Waypoint Asset Management.
In Europe, the DAX is up 0.5% in Frankfurt, while in Paris, the CAC is up 0.1%.
8.50am: JLR supplier Autins rocked by production halt
One of the suppliers that has been hit by Land Rover Jaguar's production freeze, as it investigates a cyberattack from earlier in the month, is Autins Group PLC (AIM:AUTG), where shares plummeted over 50% this morning.
This followed the maker of acoustic and thermal insulation saying the temporary shutdown has had "a material effect" on its UK operations, with JLR its major customer.
JLR said overnight that car production would remain on pause until at least next Wednesday, 24 September, after the cyberattack at the start of the month.
Autins said it is "in dialogue" with JLR, and awaits further guidance about when production will restart.
Until then, it has taken measures to reduce exposure to this incident, including delaying or cancelling raw material orders and pausing discretionary spend across the business.
"The JLR cyberattack is concerning not just for Autins, but the wider automotive supply chain the true impact of which will not be known for some time," said CEO Andy Bloomer.
8.27am: $40bn US tech investment in the UK
Alongside President Trump’s UK state visit, more than $40 billion in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure projects have been announced.
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) led the wave with a $30 billion commitment by 2028 to expand its UK operations, including building the country’s largest supercomputer in partnership with British cloud group Nscale.
Microsoft president Brad Smith acknowledged his stance on Britain had shifted in the past 18 months. “Just a few years ago, this kind of investment would have been inconceivable,” he said, crediting the government’s recent steps to create a more supportive climate for growth.
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) has pledged $15 billion of investment to deploy 120,000 of its new Blackwell processors across the UK.
Alphabet Inc's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google announced a $6.8 billion programme that includes a major new data centre north of London, which it says could support more than 8,000 jobs annually in UK businesses.
OpenAI committed to 'Stargate UK', a venture with SoftBank and Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, ETR:ORC) to bring up to 31,000 processors online from sites in Newcastle and nearby Blyth.
In connection, the government this morning announced the creation of an "AI Growth Zone" in the North East, to attract up to £30 billion in private investment.
Blackstone had already committed £10 billion into the Blyth site, with the new designation of an AI Growth Zone "providing the potential for an additional £20 billion in investment from future partners".
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the deal "marks a historic chapter in US-UK technology collaboration. We are at the Big Bang of the AI era - and the United Kingdom stands in a Goldilocks position, where world-class talent, research and industry converge."
8.15am: FTSE shuffles higher
The FTSE 100 has moseyed 11 points higher to just over 9,207 in early trades.
Top risers are Centrica, Admiral, Entain and IAG, while fallers are led by the precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour, followed by base metals pair Anglo American and Rio Tinto.
8.01am: Inflation means BoE might not cut rates til next year
UK inflation was in line with the Bank of England’s forecast, while a slightly bigger-than-expected fall in services inflation "is good news, but it won’t make much difference" to the Monetary Policy Committee, says Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM.
The drop in services inflation was largely due to the reversal of the jump in airfares in July, he says, predicting that inflation will still climb to 4% in September, which will make it "difficult, although not impossible, for the MPC to cut rates again this year."
He notes that hotel prices jumped from 0.7% in July to 2.3% in August, potentially off the back of the Oasis concerts, so may fall back next month, while food prices were up 5.1% in August, the highest since January last year.
Food price inflation will probably continue to increase to a peak of between 5.5% and 6% later this year, Pugh says, with the increased prices reflecting rising global agricultural prices and "some evidence that retailers are passing through higher employment costs, increasing prices by even more".
On the other side, airfare inflation plunged from 15.5% in July to -3.5% in August, showing how much airlines ramped up prices at the start of the school holidays.
"The bigger picture is that inflation will still probably hit 4%, or even a little higher, in September.
"Given the MPC signalled growing concern over rising inflation and inflation expectations at its last meeting, and that 4% is seen as the critical threshold when households pay more attention to inflation, a rate cut tomorrow looks out of the question and one in November looks unlikely."
7.52am: Games Workshop tops up dividend
Warhammer maker Games Workshop Group PLC (LSE:GAW) has declared a dividend of £0.85 pence per share and said trading in the first three months of its new financial year was in line with board expectations.
The new dividend takes the total declared so far in 2025/26 to £2.25 per share, which is more than double the £1.00 in 2024/25.
"This is in line with the Company's dividend policy."
7.47am: GSK announces further US investment
GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) has announced that it will "invest $30 billion" in R&D and manufacturing in the US over the next five years.
This includes a new $1.2 billion investment announced today in manufacturing facilities, AI and advanced digital technologies.
This includes building a new biologics "flex" factory in Pennsylvania for respiratory and cancer drugs, with construction to begin next year, as well as adding new drug substance manufacturing capabilities in existing sites.
New AI and advanced digital technology capabilities will also be rolled out across GSK's existing five manufacturing sites in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maryland, and Montana.
The announcement has been made in conjunction with Donald Trump's state visit, with GSK CEO Emma Walmsley saying: "Alongside the many longstanding and vital shared interests that connect the U.K. and the United States, is advancing life sciences to get ahead of disease."
She said the company was "proud to be part of both" countries' health sectors, investing was more than £1.5 billion in UK R&D every year.
7.32am: Barratt warns of 'additional risk' to outlook from Budget uncertainty
Full-year results from Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW) come with some cautious statements on the immediate outlook.
Chief executive David Thomas said the past year's was "a solid performance in a tough market, with adjusted profits ahead of expectations despite home completions coming in slightly below our guided range".
The housing market "remains challenging" and the board anticipates "limited growth" in the new financial year.
Based on the reservation activity seen since the start of the new year, total home completions of 17,200-17,800 are expected, compared to 16,565 in the past year.
"This also assumes a normal autumn selling season, our current expectation, however the extended period through to the Budget and related uncertainties around general taxation and that applicable to housing, has introduced additional risk."
7.17am: Airline fares down, petrol prices up
Commenting on the inflation release, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said annual inflation was unchanged in August "as various price movements offset each other".
Falling airfares were the main downward driver this month, he said, with prices rising less than a year ago following the large increase in July linked to the timing of the summer holidays.
"This was offset by a rise in prices at the pump and the cost of hotel accommodation falling less than this time last year."
He said food price inflation climbed for the fifth month in a row, with further small increases seen across vegetables, cheese and fish.
7.12am: FTSE 100 called higher as inflation bang in line with expectations
The FTSE 100 has been called a touch higher after UK inflation numbers for August pretty much all came in the same as the month before.
London's blue-chip index is anticipated to add around 11 points, according to the futures market, a day after losing just over 81 points to finish at 9,195.66.
Overnight, the main Wall Street stock indices all finished in the red too, though the largest drop was a 0.3% reverse for the Dow Jones, with the S&P 500 receding only 0.1% and the Nasdaq even less than that.
This morning's release by the Office for National Statistics showed the consumer price index was up 3.8% last month compared to August a year ago, as expected.