Australian shares are poised to open lower on Wednesday, with ASX 200 futures down 37 points (-0.42%) to 8,846 as of 9:10 am AEST. The softer open follows a muted overnight session on Wall Street, where major indices slipped slightly as investors braced for the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision due early Thursday morning local time.
The Fed is widely expected to trim rates by 25 basis points, its first cut in nearly a year. Traders are more focused on what comes next — how many cuts follow through year-end, and what signals chair Jerome Powell gives on the longer-term path. Markets are currently pricing in around three cuts before Christmas, and nearly six across 2025 and 2026.
Wall Street cools after record run
The S&P 500 eased 0.13% to 6,607, the Dow fell 0.27%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.07%, ending a nine-day winning streak that had carried the index to successive record highs. Tech shares, which have driven much of the recent rally, lost some steam, though sentiment remains underpinned by strong AI and cloud demand.
On the corporate side, Microsoft lifted its quarterly dividend nearly 10%, while Google pledged a £5 billion investment into the UK’s AI economy. Healthcare also featured, with Eli Lilly announcing plans for a US$5 billion manufacturing facility in the US
Across the Atlantic, Europe had a tougher session, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.3% and Germany’s DAX off 1.8%. Concerns about potential new US tariffs on car parts added to the cautious tone.
ASX recap: Uranium and gold stocks shine
Back home, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.7 points higher on Tuesday, up 0.28% to 8,878. Uranium miners led the charge after news the US and UK will fast-track approvals for new nuclear power plants during President Trump’s state visit, while Washington also flagged plans to expand its strategic uranium stockpile. Paladin, Deep Yellow, Boss Energy and Lotus Resources all jumped between 6% and 12%.
Gold miners also had a strong day, with the XGD index up more than 2% as bullion edged higher. Broader market gains were supported by energy, consumer discretionary and materials stocks, while healthcare and staples weighed. Small caps outperformed, with the Small Ords adding 0.9%.
Commodities and currencies
Commodities remain a central theme, with gold setting another record overnight above US$3,700 an ounce before settling around US$3,690. The rally has been fuelled by safe-haven buying, central bank demand, and expectations of US rate cuts. Still, gold equities gave back some ground overnight, suggesting a pause after their recent outperformance of the metal itself.
Oil prices pushed higher, with WTI up 1.9% to US$64.55 and Brent climbing 1.5% to US$68.47, as Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted Russian refining capacity and traders eyed fresh Western sanctions. Iron ore held firm above US$105 a tonne, supported by improving Chinese steel production. Base metals were mixed — copper dipped 0.5% on softer demand signals from China, while aluminium rose nearly 1%.
The Aussie dollar is holding near US$0.668, its highest level since November 2024, supported by expectations of Fed easing and resilient local economic data.
What to watch today
It’s a quiet day for local corporate news, though a handful of stocks including Flight Centre and Inghams go ex-dividend. On the macro side, a speech by RBA assistant governor Brad Jones at 11:30 am AEST may offer further hints on the central bank’s thinking after recent strong GDP and inflation prints.
Overseas, all eyes are on the Fed at 4 am AEST Thursday, but before then there’s plenty to digest — UK inflation numbers at 4 pm, a Canadian interest rate decision at 11:45 pm, and US housing starts and building permits after midnight.
With gold and oil both on the march and the uranium trade still in focus, commodities remain key for the ASX today. But with futures pointing lower and global markets in wait-and-see mode, the tone is likely to stay cautious until Powell steps up to the podium.