Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
Fed rate decision
This week marks one of the most highly anticipated Fed decisions of the year, with markets pricing in a September cut following Jerome Powell’s decision to stay on hold amid Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. Despite US inflation picking up slightly in August, recent jobs data have pretty much solidified that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates this week. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 bps cut remains at 96%, with a near 4% chance of a 50 bps cut.
This meeting will also reveal where the Fed sees rates heading for the remainder of 2025, with markets currently pricing in at least one more cut before year’s end. Rather than a 50bps cut, three cuts before year-end could be the move for the Fed. Depending on the Fed’s commentary and outlook, it could spark a surge of capital flowing into US markets over the coming weeks as a result of renewed investor confidence, particularly with trillions of dollars in cash sitting on the sidelines. So long as the US avoids a recession, renewed investor buying could be a catalyst to drive stocks higher, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, such as small caps.
AU unemployment
Australia’s unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% in July, with a notable rebound in employment numbers. This improvement offered some relief after June’s rise in unemployment and growing concern around jobs figures and the issue of poor productivity. However, this week’s unemployment data is unlikely to shift the Reserve Bank’s stance ahead of its meeting at the end of the month. Regardless of whether it shows lower unemployment in August or another uptick, the expectation is that the RBA will hold rates steady on September 30, before cutting rates at its next meeting in November.
The tone surrounding this week’s Labour Force data is more optimistic compared to last month’s, when the higher unemployment figure cast a long shadow over Prime Minister Albanese’s Economic Reform Roundtable. The roundtable has since offered some insight into how the government intends to boost Australia’s productivity, including tax reforms, but the pressure is now on for Labour to drive outcomes from its roundtable discussions in the coming months. The unemployment rate should stay around 4.2% with around 20,000 jobs added in August.
Where next for bitcoin?
The growing expectation of a Fed cut was good news for bitcoin at the end of last week, as it jumped around 5% to $115,000.
The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, has seen over US$20 billion flow into its iShares Bitcoin ETF this year, the fourth-highest ETF flow across all ETFs in 2025, a clear signal that it views Bitcoin as a legitimate component of long-term, diversified portfolios. Big institutional moves like this underscore how digital assets are increasingly being accepted as mainstream investments, further validating the role of crypto in a balanced strategy.
For the week ahead, the focus remains on the Fed. A cut paired with dovish commentary could provide fresh fuel for bitcoin, with the asset being supported by investors taking a more ‘risk-on’ approach. Beyond the Fed, sustaining momentum towards all-time highs will require continued strength in ETF inflows, alongside broader adoption through corporate treasuries and sovereign interest.
What was once seen as a high-risk investment, bitcoin is now firmly embedding itself in investment portfolios, with ETF flows, corporate treasuries and sovereign interest underscoring that bitcoin’s adoption curve is only in its early stages.