- FTSE 100 up 72 points to 9,297
- UK house prices likely to fall, surveyors predict
- Trainline and Playtech results impress
4.50pm: Global stocks higher
European and US stocks moved higher on Thursday, with data showing US inflation ticked up in August, firming up rate cut bets.
The FTSE added 72 points at 9,297 points while across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones was up more than 500 points.
“Today’s CPI reading cleared the decks for a September rate cut, though the weekly claims figure provided the fuel for the real move higher in US markets,” IG chief market analysts Chris Beauchamp said.
“Coming off the back of last week’s payrolls, the signs are there that the employment picture in the US is now definitively weakening. The Fed’s rationale for acting next week got a lot stronger today, and we are seeing plenty of buying in advance of next week’s meeting.”
4.07pm: Defence powers the FTSE
The FTSE 100 is strengthening into the close, with today's chart looking like a rustic stairway.
Defence and aerospace companies are driving the gains, with BAE Systems PLC (LSE:BA.) and Babcock International PLC (LSE:BAB) two of the top three risers, up 6.3% and 2.7%. Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) is up 2.2% as well.
This comes after Poland said that Russian drones incursions last night "did not veer off course" but were deliberately targeting Poland.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last night that European countries need to work on a joint air defense system.
Zelenskyy said in a social media post that Russia’s deployment of drones was an act of "brazen behavior".
He said: "We need to work on a joint air defense system and create an effective air shield over Europe.
"Ukraine has long proposed this, and we have concrete solutions. We must respond together to all current challenges and be ready for potential threats to all Europeans in the future.
"Likewise, we need to significantly increase joint funding for the production of interceptor drones. They have already proven their effectiveness."
BAE Systems subsidiary Malloy Aeronautics makes novel aircraft, and the group is also developing uncrewed air systems and capabilities such as 'attritable' systems for military customers such as unmanned aerial vehicles.
Babcock, according to its website, develops uncrewed aerial systems for defence surveillance and reconnaissance as well as with weapons capabilities.
3.35pm: THG impresses
THG PLC (LSE:THG) has delivered one of its best set of results today, with the shares up over 11% now (though still down two-thirds from when Apollo mooted a potential bid two years ago and so for many fingers-burnt investors it might be too late).
Analyst Andrew Wade at Jefferies says the company is building momentum, with guidance marking "robust acceleration".
THG provided some positive commentary on Q3, noting that recent weeks have seen the strongest trading in Nutrition so far this year, while Beauty has returned to growth, supported by the annualisation of the territory pull.
The beauty "advent season" (presumably advent calendars with beauty products in them?) has been the strongest launch in history.
Underpinned by these accelerating revenue trends, THG has reiterated its FY25 EBITDA guidance, and Wade says he is leaving his estimate of £75 million unchanged today, although adjusting the composition with Nutrition higher, Beauty lower.
"With the current year having absorbed the effects of whey, tariffs, and demerger one-offs, FY26 looks set to be the year in which THG demonstrates its underlying potential - we anticipate both Beauty and Nutrition will be in robust growth, and this should drop through to a year of strong cash generation."
2.56pm: More Wall Street highs
A solid start on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 climbing to new highs.
The Dow is up 372 points or 0.8% to just under 45,863, the S&P 0.45% to 6,561.2.
Lagging slightly is the Nasdaq, up 0.4%.
Top risers on the S&P are Micron Technology, Centene, Synopsys, Molina Healthcare and Warner Bros Discovery.
2.25pm: Small gains for stocks as market sees what it wants in data
US futures have inched up, but all still indicating small gains of 0.2%-0.3%.
The FTSE has been in a channel since this morning, up between 25 and 50 points.
US inflation and jobless claims were both released together.
The CPI report "was a hot one, no matter how you slice or dice it", says economist Atakan Bakiskan at Berenberg.
"President Donald Trump’s inflationary policies – tariffs and restrictive immigration measures – are gradually showing up in the hard data and continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power.
"Although inflation came in hotter than expected, the Fed is likely to prioritise signs of labour market weakness for now."
He says the jobless claims support this view, showing layoff numbers jumped to 263k in the week of 6th September, up from 237,000 the week prior.
This is the fastest pace of increase since October 2024 and the highest level since October 2021.
"This reinforces the Fed’s view of an increasingly fragile labour market.
"Markets placed more weight on the weak jobless claims data than on the hot August inflation print – a leading to a drop in 2-year and 10-year yields, and traders fully pricing in three rate cuts this year."
1.58pm: US rate cut a done deal, what about a 50bps cut?
It was expected that US inflation ticked slightly higher during August, while core inflation remained stable, "ensuring a rate cut in September is now a forgone conclusion", says Isaac Stell, investment manager at Wealth Club.
With the Federal Reserve having been in wait-and-see mode since December, it has "been given the green light today to cut rates", he says, though Jerome Powell indicated as much in recent comments.
"Inflation has not seen large upside surprises from tariff turmoil and with recent revisions to jobs data showing almost 1 million fewer jobs than previously thought, the Fed’s dual mandate will ensure rates are cut at next weeks meeting."
With a slowing jobs market and jobless claims rising to their highest level in four years, Stell says "questions may be asked" whether the anticipated cut will come, as Donald Trump says, "too late".
"The pressure on an already embattled Fed will continue to ramp up. Thoughts now turn to the depth of the cut, with a labour market deteriorating faster than anticipated and inflation seemingly under control, a 0.50% cut becomes increasingly likely."
Garry White at Charles Stanley says: "President Trump would like to see a series of steep rate cuts. Unfortunately, with inflation stubborn and the full impact of tariffs not yet felt, the president is unlikely to get what he wants.
"So, we can expect more attacks on the US central bank in the coming months as President Trump tries to recast it in his favour."
1.44pm: US inflation
US consumer inflation rose 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% from a month earlier and in line with economists’ expectations, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has shown.
Month-over-month, the consumer price index rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% and above a 0.3% gain expected by economists.
The gains were driven by increases in gasoline and food prices.
Core CPI, which does not include food and energy, was 3.1%, unchanged from the previous month.
Markets are still pricing in a 91% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday.
A 9.1% probability is being priced that the Fed will deliver a mega cut of 50 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
1.23 pm: Wall Street set for firmer start
The FTSE 100 extended its gains on Thursday morning, climbing nearly 50 points ahead of Wall Street’s open as investors braced for the latest reading on US consumer inflation.
London’s blue-chip index moved higher while US stock futures also pointed upwards.
Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.2% in early dealings, following a muted but record-setting session on Wall Street the previous day.
Attention now turns to the August consumer price index, due at 1.30 pm UK time.
Economists expect the annual headline rate to tick up to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, underlining the persistence of inflation. Markets are also watching for any sign that President Trump’s tariffs are pushing up costs for households, after producer price data earlier in the week came in cooler than forecast.
Despite the likely uptick, analysts say the print is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates when it meets next week. Futures markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a quarter-point reduction in September. The question is whether further cuts will follow, a call that may hinge on today’s numbers.
Weekly jobless claims, also due later, will provide another read on the health of the labour market. On the corporate side, results from Kroger and Adobe are expected to give investors fresh points of focus.
11.40am: Anglo merger 'makes sense'
Anglo American shares are down a little today, after rising over 9% in the past two days after its Teck deal agreement.
UBS says the merger "makes strategic sense", with complementary commodities, stronger copper case, and potential multiple re-rating.
Analysts see low risk of an interloper coming in with a rival bid, citing shareholder structures, regulatory hurdles and deal logic.
"We believe a merger would improve the quality & resilience of earnings and potentially reduce the business risk."
They also see "significant synergies" at the corporate level and from combining Chilean operations, and "expect Anglo Teck to re-rate over time as the company rebuilds trust, completes the restructuring, improves the operational performance, and starts to deliver the volume growth".
11.05am: German exports predicted to shrink
Germany's BGA trade association forecasts the country's exports will shrink 2.5% this year.
With many firms reporting stagnant or falling sales, BGA president Dirk Jandura said "the situation remains fragile".
He pointed to tariffs, geopolitics and slowing global growth.
"Foreign trade will remain the engine of our economy only if policymakers act decisively now."
10.42am: John Lewis making progress
John Lewis Partnership put out results this morning that could be read a number of ways, as its transformation continues and ahead of the bigger second half that includes the big festive period.
There was a £88 million pre-tax loss reported, mostly from £29 million from the new packaging levy, where the group has absorbed the full-year cost in the first half, alongside higher National Insurance contributions and £54 million of exceptional costs from its transformation plan.
On an underlying basis, the loss was pretty much flat versus last year's £5 million, while Waitrose made a £110 million profit.
10.17am: Avon flowing higher
Avon Technologies PLC (LSE:AVON) is third on the FTSE 350 leaderboard.
While defence names are on the rise, the maker of helmets and breathing apparatus for the military and security sectors is also benefiting from a positive write-up by Jefferies.
"Avon remains one of our most preferred UK SMID defence names," says analyst Andrew Douglas.
"Not only have we been impressed by how mgmt has executed its turnaround strategy over the last 18-24 months, we also believe the group's medium-term outlook is strengthening and is well-underpinned.
"There's still work to be done, but management is de-risking the equity story and there continues to be significant organic and M&A upside."
Jefferies has upgraded its 2025-2027 forecasts and hiked its price target.
9.46am: Favourite stocks in the lead
2025 stock market favourites Fresnillo and BAE Systems are leading the London index, notes market analyst Neil Wilson, while Shell and BP do some heavy lifting, while AB Foods and IAG bounce after both were sold yesterday.
"Gold's rally has paused, while oil is trading a little lower after three days of gains," he observes.
On the European Central Bank meeting today, he says no change is expected with the ECB "in wait-and-see mode for now".
"Its July accounts showed it wants to remain deliberately uninformative. June’s forecastse on inflation and growth probably won’t change, or only fractionally.
"Forecasts for one more rate cut can be left – even if this cutting cycle is over (which it might not be) the ECB doesn’t need to fine tune things that much.
"Widening of Franco-German bond spreads is not dire enough to warrant action. Yields would need to move a lot further before the ECB does anything. At the moment EURUSD sits at 1.17 or just a fraction under."
9.23am: CPI in focus, UK housing survey weakens
European markets have opened mostly higher, with the London index's 0.5% gain in line with the CAC in Paris, while the DAX is just above flat in Frankfurt.
BAE Systems is at the top of the basket "amid geopolitical unease on multiple fronts", observes market analyst Victoria Scholar at ii.
US futures are pointing slightly higher.
Scholar flags the big events today as the US CPI, with this afternoon's ECB meeting expected to see interest rates left unchanged.
On the UK's RICS housing market data, she says the -19 price balance was "worse than analysts had expected with sluggish new buyer enquiries and softer agreed sales over the quieter summer month.
"Uncertainty in terms of the outlook for interest rates from the Bank of England and taxes in the upcoming Autumn Budget are weighing on demand.
"Plus with inflation continuing to land above target, there are concerns about higher for longer interest rates, which would put continued pressure on mortgage affordability for potential buyers or movers."
Economist Elliot Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics says the housing market was victim of a "one-two punch".
"Just as buyers recovered from the stamp duty hike in April the government begins flying kites about major changes to property taxes—some of which would mean very large tax liabilities for some owners—in the November Budget.
Forward-looking indicators also softened, he notes, with the 12-month ahead price balance falling to +9 from +19 in July, and having now shed 44 points in eight months after initially holding firm when stamp duty hikes were announced.
The 3-month and 12-month ahead price expectations balances are "consistent with house price inflation of around 2.0% year-over-year", he says.
But he notes that hard data have been more resilient than the survey-based RICS in recent months, so actual house prices should do better than the RICS survey suggests in the near-term.
9am: Playtech buzzes higher as it goes back to its roots
Another mid-cap riser to note is Playtech PLC (LSE:PTEC), which has buzzed 9.1% higher after the gaming software group said it was "on track" to beat full-year earnings expectations.
Revenue fell 10% and adjusted EBITDA declined 16%, but this was in line with upgraded guidance given in August.
CEO Mor Weizer said the results were part of the FTSE 250 group "making in its transition back to its roots as a predominantly pure-play B2B business", with earnings ahead of expectations from earlier in the year, "reflecting the strong performance across our key markets".
He said the second half of the year has "started well, and we are on track to be ahead of expectations for the year".
The FTSE 100 is up 44 points or 0.5%, while the FTSE 250 has shot past and is now up 147 points or 0.7%.
8.31am: Trainline puffs higher
Bigger moves are on the FTSE 250, where Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) is up around 10% after reporting robust first-half trading, raising its profitability guidance and unveiling a new £150 million share buyback programme.
Group net ticket sales rose 8% to £3.2 billion in the six months to 31 August, tracking towards the upper end of full-year guidance for growth between 6% and 9%.
The digital ticketing group now expects EBITDA to grow at the top end of its 6% to 9% guidance range for the full-year, reflecting operating leverage and cost optimisation.
CEO Jody Ford says the first half saw a "robust performance" and he highlighted how "rail liberalisation in Europe continues to demonstrate the value Trainline brings as the preeminent domestic aggregator", pointing to competition in southeast France has driven Q2 sales growth of 34%.
8.15am: FTSE opens higher, helped by defence and oil sectors
The FTSE 100 has opened almost 41 points higher at 9,266.
Precious metals miner Fresnillo and defence group BAE Systems are the top risers, up 2% and 1.8%.
Gains for oil giants Shell and BP, up 0.9% and 10.3% are also helping the London index.
8am: Trainline ups guidance
Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) has hiked its earnings guidance for this year, while reconfirming its ticket sales expectations.
Get ticket sales are expected to be between +6% and +9%, and group revenue between 0% and +3%.
The digital ticketing company now expects adjusted EBITDA to grow at the top end of its previous guidance range, which was for between +6% and +9%.
CEO Jody Ford said: "Trainline has delivered robust performance in the first half and today announces improved guidance for the full-year alongside an enhanced £150 million share buyback programme.
"Rail liberalisation in Europe continues to demonstrate the value Trainline brings as the preeminent domestic aggregator, most recently in Southeast France where increased carrier competition between Paris, Lyon and Marseille has driven Q2 sales growth of 34%. At the same time, Trainline Solutions has become a £1 billion sales business as we help more clients of all sizes, from SMEs to the world's largest travel management companies, ramp up business travel sales across Europe."
7.49am: THG backs outlook
THG PLC (LSE:THG) reported a 35% drop in first-half earnings and an increased statutory loss but said momentum was improving into the second half.
Headline figures in the nutrition and cosmetics group's interim results look largely in line with a trading update last month.
Group revenue fell 7.6%, while gross margin shrank a little due to higher whey prices in its nutrition business.
Adjusted EBITDA declined to £24 million from £37.1 million.
Boss Matt Moulding said the first half had been a "transformative period which sets us up well for our most profitable and cash generative period in H2.
"Our momentum is positive and Q3 will be our strongest trading period of the year so far, underpinning our confidence in the outlook."
The outlook is unchanged though.
7.27am: Ellison overtakes Musk
Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, ETR:ORC) overtook Elon Musk as the world’s richest person after the stock soared more than 40% at one point yesterday.
Surging cloud demand was evident in the software giant’s latest financial results, while it was also reported by the WSJ to have been signed up by OpenAI in a cloud computing deal worth $300 billion over five years.
Ellison’s wealth increased by $101 billion to $393 billion on Wednesday, to exceed Musk’s net worth of $385 billion, Bloomberg reported.
His increase in wealth is the biggest one-day increase ever recorded by the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.
7.16am: FTSE 100 called higher
The FTSE 100 has been called higher ahead of Thursday's opening trades, with a continued flow of UK corporate news to keep investors interested while traders keep their focus on US inflation.
Futures for London's blue-chip benchmark indicate a gain of around 20 points today, after the index dropped 17 points to 9,225.39 yesterday.
There is UK housing market data out this morning from RICS, where the house price balance hit -19 in August versus -13 in July, reaching the weakest level since January 2024.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.3% and 0.03% respectively to both notch fresh record closing highs, lifted by a massive surge for Oracle and broader enthusiasm for AI-linked stocks.
The Dow Jones fell 0.4%, meanwhile, with more than two-thirds of its constituents in the red, led by Salesforce, Amazon, Apple and McDonalds.
Klarna closed up 15% following its New York IPO, valuing the ‘buy now, pay later’ firm at around $17.3 billion by the close.
Asian markets are mostly in green this morning, with only Hong Kong's Hang Seng lower, dragged by pharmaceutiucal stocks.
Brent crude oil has retreated from a week's high, at just under $67.5 a barrel, while gold likewise has backed off from its peak and is back around $3,632 an ounce.