US retail sales are projected to increase 2.9% to 3.4% during this year’s holiday selling period, down from 4.2% in 2024, marking the slowest growth since the COVID-19 years, Deloitte announced on Wednesday, citing US Census Bureau data.
The global accounting and advisory company, however, said US consumers will spend $40 billion to $45 billion more this holiday season, due largely to disposable income gains of between 3.1% to 5.4%.
The firm noted that it has found disposable income growth to be a solid predictor of retail and ecommerce sales.
Deloitte projects eCommerce sales growth of 7% to 9% during the holiday season, and total between $305 billion and $310.7 billion.
Deloitte noted its retail and consumer products practice forecasts holiday sales will total $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the November to January time period.