AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN) may have caught the market’s attention last weekend with promising data on its experimental blood pressure treatment, but the follow-up analysis suggests the story is far from settled.
The focus is now shifting to whether the drug can show benefits beyond the clinic chair. The original phase III data, presented at the European Society of Cardiology conference, were based on reductions in office-based blood pressure.
That showed Baxdrostat worked in patients with resistant hypertension, a subset for whom standard treatments fail, but left questions about how meaningful that effect might be in everyday life.
This week, Deutsche Bank flagged the results of a quickfire poll conducted by a third-party group.
The findings line up with the bank’s cautious take, but with one twist: physicians appear to care a lot more than expected about 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure control, a measure seen as more relevant to real-world outcomes and long-term cardiovascular risk.
“Surprising emphasis” is how analyst Emmanuel Papadakis describes the polling feedback, which has prompted the team to take a closer look at whether BAX24, the next readout, will move the needle.
BAX24 is explicitly designed to test this 24-hour profile, but the bank remains sceptical that the results will offer the kind of clear-cut differentiation needed to stand apart from lorundrostat, a rival asset in the same class.
That competitive backdrop matters, particularly as payors remain unconvinced about the added value of new agents in a space with cheap generics.
With results from BAX24 expected imminently, the coming weeks should clarify whether AstraZeneca has a commercial contender or just another piece of a complex pipeline.
Shares in the drugmaker were down 1% on Monday at 11,960p, but that is still above Deutsche Bank’s 11,000p target price.
So, it is sticking with its 'hold' rating ahead of key results from the next stage of the Baxdrostat clinical programme, known as BAX24.