Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU consumer confidence
Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment figures drop on Tuesday, providing a useful insight into how Aussies intend to spend. July’s consumer numbers revealed a huge improvement in confidence, after a prolonged period of caution thanks to the RBA’s third rate cut of 2025.
In official figures, the most recent monthly CPI reading jumped well above estimates, while GDP figures also came in above expectations last week, indicating that the economy is heating back up. That’s good news for retailers, but bad news for those hoping for continued easing by the RBA, and the jump in inflation has all but guaranteed a September rate cut is now out of the question.
Overall, the conditions for doing business in Australia seem to be recovering. Last month gave us a satisfying earnings report from Coles and a very positive result for Wesfarmers, albeit among less successful retailer reports. These indicated that - at least in the short term - recent rate cuts are freeing up back pockets around the country. While we likely won’t see the kind of jump in confidence brought to us in August, this week’s data will still likely indicate confidence is on the rise.
US inflation
US CPI figures are handed down on Thursday, US time. After six months of monthly figures edging just below or matching predictions, we could see a bump above forecasts this time around.
The US labour market is showing strong signs of cooling. Job openings in July were recorded at the lowest level in ten months, and there are now more Americans out of work than there are jobs open for the first time since April 2021. Friday’s non-farm payroll figures only emphasised the US’ jobs slowdown, coming in at 22,000 despite expectations of around 75k.
The White House insists tariffs are not driving US inflation higher, but on the international stage, we’re seeing postal services scrambling to address the implications of these tariffs, and everyone from major retailers to independent vendors are increasingly having to factor the current impact and possible future impact of tariffs into their financial plans.
Regardless, the Fed looks set to cut rates later this month, with markets pricing a 98% chance of a 25bps reduction. This, though, will boost consumer spending, and we’ve already seen consumer sentiment improving, which likely boosted discretionary services. This week will be another great read on how tariff costs are flowing through the US and could either temper expectations of further cuts or add weight to more easing as we head into year-end. Markets expect headline inflation to pick up to 3% whilst core is expected at 3.1%.
Apple’s 'Awe Dropping' event
Over the past two years, Apple has faced slower iPhone upgrade cycles, a lacklustre Vision Pro debut, intensifying competition in China and questions over its AI strategy. Shares in that time have also only jumped 20%, making it the worst performer amongst its Magnificent Seven peers. But after months of sluggish sentiment and share price pain, Apple delivered its most impressive quarter in years, fuelled by stronger earnings and excitement over the upcoming iPhone 17.
That new iPhone lineup will be unveiled this week at Apple’s “Awe Dropping” event. The company is also expected to announce Apple Watch Series 11 and new AirPods Pro, and possibly tease a future foldable iPhone, as it lays the groundwork for its biggest product shake-up in over a decade. More on-device AI features are anticipated, too, as Apple looks to catch up on AI integration in its devices, especially as Apple has visibly lagged big-tech rivals in rolling out tangible AI products. Its big tech rivals are sprinting ahead in AI, while Apple is barely out of the blocks, all reflected in share price performance in the last two years.
Investors also know not to get too carried away. History shows Apple’s stock often rallies before iPhone launch events, then cools off once the new gadgets are revealed. However, this time the macro backdrop could provide a tailwind: an expected Fed interest rate cut is on the horizon, which would ease pressure on consumers’ wallets. If the iPhone 17 lineup impresses, a strong upgrade cycle could be on the cards, especially with many users due for an upgrade.