Wednesday’s trading statement from Sainsbury’s covers the supermarket chain’s first quarter, and investors will be hoping for signs of growth.
They may not get them, based on its struggles in the previous financial year. Like-for-like (LFL) sales (including VAT, but excluding fuel) were down 1.9% from a year earlier.
Banking heavyweight UBS recently lowered its estimate of UK grocery market growth in 2015 from 1.5% to 1.0%, and with Tesco signalling it would prioritise volume over margin, the Swiss bank is also trimming its margin expectations.
It says it has seen so improvement in the market since the tentative rebound around the end of the year ran out of momentum. On the plus side, from the perspective of Sainsbury’s shareholders, while UBS cut its price target for market leader Tesco, it left its Sainsbury’s target unchanged at 275p.
Argos owner Home Retail Group, which is reporting on Thursday, has already warned shareholders to buckle up and expect a bumpy ride in the first half of the year.
The market consensus is for first quarter LFL sales to be down 4% year-on-year at Argos, though gross margin is tipped to rise by a quarter of a percentage point.
Homebase also has tough comparative figures to go up again but may start to see some sales pick-up from the first batch of store closures, UBS suggests.
“Key over the medium term will be any sign that the Argos transformation plan can be tweaked to capture new customers and demand, and whether there will be any recovery in sales of higher-margin home and jewellery categories,” the Swiss bank added.
Significant announcements expected
Monday
Interim: TCS Group Holding (LON:TCSA), Drax Group (LON:DRX)
Economic: Asia – Chinese trade
Tuesday
Final: CML Microsystems (LON:CML), Custodian Reit (LON:CREI), Iomart Group (LON:IOM), Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG), Picton Property Income (LON:PCTN)
Interim: OMG (LON:OMG)
Economic: UK – Trade figures, Inflation report hearings; EU – Gross domestic product. Asia – Chinese producer prices, Chinese consumer prices
Wednesday
Final: Ensor Holdings (LON:ESR), Thalassa Holdings (LON:THAL)
Interim: Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE), Zambeef Products (LON:ZAM)
Trading statement: Sainsbury (LON:SBRY)
Economic: UK – Manufacturing production, NIESR GDP estimate.
Thursday
Final: CareTech Holdings (LON:CTH), First Property Group (LON:FPO), Halma (LON:HLMA), Mulberry (LON:MUL), Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI)
Interim: Redhall Group (LON:RHL)
Trading statement: Home Retail Group (LON:HOME)
Economic: UK – RICS housing price balance. Asia – Chinese industrial production. US – Retail sales
Friday
Final: Bonmarch (LON:BON), Origo Partners (LON:OPP)
Trading statement: Ted Baker (LON:TED)
Economic: US – Producer prices index