Macquarie Equities has shifted its preference among large-cap gold miners, downgrading Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM, TSX:NGT, ASX:NEM, ETR:NMM) to Neutral while reaffirming an Outperform rating on Northern Star Resources Ltd, citing improved outlook and relative valuation.
The broker notes Newmont’s share price has risen 25% since late June, effectively pricing in recent operational strength. In contrast, Northern Star’s share price has remained largely flat, despite emerging from a challenging guidance period with fewer concerns than anticipated.
“Newmont was previously our top pick as we expected a tumultuous guidance season for Northern Star and strong production performances from Newmont, and this came to fruition,” Macquarie stated. “Since then NST’s site visit to KCGM yielded little negative news.”
With “clear air” ahead for Northern Star over the next six months, Macquarie sees scope for the stock to re-rate. While it acknowledges the likelihood of Newmont exceeding calendar year 2025 guidance, the broker believes this has already been factored into its valuation.
Macquarie added that Evolution Mining Ltd “appears the least attractive on a range of metrics” among the large-cap gold cohort.