Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU GDP
Australian quarterly GDP figures arrive on Wednesday. Last month, we saw quarterly CPI come in on target, but month-on-month jumped significantly and unexpectedly. An unpredictable GDP reading could further complicate the RBA’s situation.
Volatility continues to cloud the global economy. Locally, retail sentiment and business confidence have shown improvements, but it wouldn’t be surprising to discover that household spending remains subdued.
In terms of Australia’s economic health, key earnings results last week showed us that it’s mixed. Woolworths was a poor showing, Coles was measured but didn’t shine, and Wesfarmers was very good. There are opportunities for enterprise out there, but still not enough to go around.
Consequently, we’ll likely see a higher GDP reading than we saw in 1Q25, which was unexpectedly weak.
The Aussie dollar is in a tricky position. There is clearly a public desire for at least one more cut before the end of the year, which a high reading will work against. For those looking for a silver lining in favour of another cut, the ongoing uncertainty of tariff impacts will dampen the economic adages that usually come baked into high GDP readings.
Non-Farm Payrolls
US Non-Farm Payroll figures will arrive at the end of this week. July’s reading shocked markets, coming in significantly below estimates, but figures this month will ideally return to some normalcy after that harsh dip. The American unemployment rate will also be dropping on the same day, and is likely to remain steady around the 4.2% mark.
The true state of the US’ economy is a difficult one to gauge from job figures presently. While an improvement to some figures may spur President Trump to try to pressure the Federal Reserve to ease rates, we know chair Jerome Powell will not be persuaded on this alone. Indeed, with a CPI reading coming next month, an internal final decision on the next rate call will certainly not be made by the end of this week, making this week’s figures vital but not conclusive.
Salesforce/Lululemon Earnings
Following a banner run of high-profile earnings reports over the last few weeks, we seem to be entering a bit of a dull patch. There’s a couple of big names left, though. Notably, Canadian activewear stalwart Lululemon, and software developer Salesforce.
For Lululemon, tariffs remain the major overhang. Earlier this year, trade concerns rattled its supply chain outlook, and investors will be keen to hear whether management has a clearer handle on costs. The stock is known for its volatility, but its strength lies in its fiercely loyal global customer base and brand positioning at the premium end of the activewear market. That resilience has often kept Lululemon a step ahead of competitors, even in tougher operating conditions.
Any signs of margin pressure or cautious guidance would rattle investor confidence. With an implied earnings move of around 12%, markets are clearly braced for a big swing either way.
Salesforce faces a different set of challenges. The company has seen concerns around slowing demand, set against an uncertain macro backdrop. Recent headlines haven’t helped either, with security breaches adding to the reputational noise. Traders are also rotating heavily into AI, leaving cloud software names somewhat out of favour this season.
But, let's be clear, Salesforce remains the clear leader in CRM. While the short term may bring pressure, particularly if management signals weaker spending trends, long-term investors are unlikely to look past its dominance. Any sharp sell-off could be viewed as a buying opportunity, rather than a structural red flag.
Similar to that of Lululemon, a big move following earnings is expected, with an 8% implied move for Salesforce, so whichever way results fall, investors should expect volatility. Neither brand may have the hype of AI plays right now, but their results will be closely watched as barometers for consumer spending and enterprise software demand.