Oil prices dipped on Thursday morning but Citi reckons they will remain supported for the rest of the quarter, before perhaps softening into the end of the year.
Brent crude front-month futures were down 0.5% today at $67.7 a barrel, up from lows near $60 in early May, but below June's six-month peak of almost $77.
Tariffs and sanctions related to Russia, as well as attacks on Russian oil facilities, are keeping oil prices "resilient" in the high-$60s, Citi said in a note to clients.
This is despite the "looming oversupply that should lower prices, particularly after the Mideast summer burn for cooling purposes and the end of the summer driving season".
Production from OPEC+ had "disappointed", Citi analysts say, and the amount of Indian diversification away from Russian oil purchases that could also be greater than reported, as reflected in a much tighter Brent-Dubai spread.
"As long as no tangible progress is made on the US-Russia-Ukraine negotiation, then tariffs on Russian oil purchases should remain in place, and hits on Russian oil infrastructure could continue.
"However, oversupply should start to exert greater impact on the oil supply-demand balance into year end."
As a result, Citi is maintaining its third-quarter Brent price average forecast of $66 a barrel, with a Q4 forecast for Brent to average $63 per barrel.
Elsewhere, JP Morgan cut earnings forecasts for BP 5% for the current year and raised those for Shell by 1%, but cut both for next year by 4.3% and 3.5% respectively.