Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) shares may face near-term headwinds even as Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company’s long-term growth.
The firm’s analysts said they remain “very bullish on Nvidia’s prospects for driving outsized growth in 2026,” but warned the stock could struggle in the coming months.
“We believe it may be difficult for the stock to outperform in the next few months given a potential lack of hard data to catalyze upward estimate revisions,” the analysts wrote.
Goldman highlighted three factors likely to influence Nvidia shares until formal 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance from hyperscalers in January: potential quantitative updates on hyperscaler CapEx in October, commentary on the timing of the Rubin product introduction, and additional clarity on its China business.
“In the absence of numerical datapoints supportive of further upward revisions, we think uncertainty on the direction of travel in 2027 could weigh on the stock,” they wrote, noting this reflects patterns seen in late 2023 and 2024.
The firm also reviewed Nvidia’s 2025 performance. The stock initially diverged from prior years as “concerns around DeepSeek and the macro environment trumped changes to hyperscaler CapEx estimates and company financial performance.”
From April, Nvidia shares “began to significantly outperform again in response to multiple positive revisions to hyperscaler CapEx estimates, as well as abating concerns tied to the macro environment and specifically the ‘efficiency threat’ posed by DeepSeek.”
The analysts extended their view to other AI-exposed semiconductor stocks, saying Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO, ETR:1YD) is expected to follow similar trading dynamics to Nvidia in the second half of 2025, with further upside linked to new XPU customers and AI networking.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD, ETR:AMD)’s stock largely reflects near-term strength in PCs and server CPUs and potential upside to Datacenter GPU estimates, while Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL) is likely to remain range-bound, with further movement dependent on custom compute revenue ramps from Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) in 2026.
Goldman maintains a 'Buy' rating on Nvidia with a 12-month target of $200, and on Broadcom with a $340 target.
AMD and Marvell are rated 'Neutral' with respective 12-month targets of $150 and $75.
The analysts cited downside risks, including slower AI infrastructure spending, increased competition, and margin pressure, alongside potential upside from stronger-than-expected market adoption and revenue ramps.