- FTSE 100 falls 10 points to 9,255
- US begins 50% tariffs on India
- JD Sports impresses despite mixed sales
- Prudential outlines plans for step up in returns
4.49pm: FTSE 100 edges lower
The FTSE 100 shed 10 points to finish Wednesday’s session at 9,255 ahead of the release of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report, due after US markets close.
“European stock indices traded in negative territory - except France's CAC 40 which regained some of Tuesday's sharp losses - ahead of Nvidia earnings,” IG senior technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
“German consumer morale below forecasts, French unemployment rising to a four-month high while in the UK retail sales fell for an eleventh consecutive month, all weighed on stock markets.”
3.59pm: Ryanair aims to increase UK flights by a third if reforms delivered
Ah, the falls in airline shares all came just after Ryanair released its winter schedule for London and the wider UK market, with the budget carrier adding five new routes from London.
The company said it expects 60 million passengers in 2025 and has submitted exciting plans to Downing Street to grow traffic by 33% to 80 million over the next five years.
It said this is the plan as long as the UK government "abolishes its damaging APD taxes" and delivers "effective reform" of air traffic control, including the UK’s "chronically mismanaged" NATS service.
At current levels Ryanair flights are double BA’s traffic to and from the UK, it said, with its new services, including four new routes from Stansted to Lübeck, Monastir, Murcia and Trapani, meaning Stansted is connected with "more European destinations than are served from Heathrow, and at a fraction of the high fares being charged by Heathrow airlines".
3.45pm: Airlines drag
It looks like the FTSE 100 is going to extend its losses today, down 0.3%. Airlines easyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ) and British Airways owner IAG (LSE:IAG) are the biggest fallers, down 4.6% and 2.4%, separated by NatWest at a 2.9% deficit.
This is despite strikes at Gatwick Airport being called off by baggage screeners. Air traffic control strikes in Greece have also been cancelled after a court ruled them illegal.
Other travel stocks are in the green, including IHG and Whitbread, so this points to an airline issue.
US carriers such as Delta and Southwest are little moved, while outside the Footsie, Wizz Air is down 2%, Ryanair is down 4.4%, with Lufthansa falling 2.3%. No news I can see yet to explain why the sector's shares are down.
Earlier, there was news that Ryanair is set to receive 25 new Boeing aircraft by October, enhancing capacity and reducing airfares.
UBS also said it expects circa 6% traffic growth and continued net profit growth this year, with airline valuations pointing to potential upside in aggregate.
2.45pm: Mixed on Wall St
Wall Street is mixed in early trade, with the Dow Jones up 126 points or 0.3% and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is basically flat.
The small cap Russell 2000 is up 0.6%.
Dow risers are led by UnitedHealth and Salesforce, while on the Nasdaq Nvidia s down 0.8% and fallers outnumber the risers among big tech.
2pm: Pru update 'attractive' but not enough for some
More reaction from the City to Prudential's long-awaited capital management update.
In short, the life insurer has upgraded its capital distribution guidance as the company shifts to focusing on total shareholder returns, says Abid Hussain at Panmure Liberum.
Focusing on the results, he says the promised double-digit growth in new business profits is now coming through, with $1.26 billion in the first half, up 12% year on year and slightly ahead of expectations.
This feeds through to management's capital management update, where the positive inflection point expected in cash generation leads to an intention to return over $5 billion over 2024-2027, via the ordinary dividend per share growing more than 10% in each year of 2025-27.
Another $500 million share buyback is planned in 2026, and $600 million in 2027, on top of the current $2 billion share buyback, of which $1.5 billion has been completed.
In addition, any proceeds from the partial listing of the Indian asset management JV with ICICI will be returned to shareholders – so 10% listing proceeds could see another $600 million or so being returned to shareholders.
Jefferies analyst Philip Kett notes that the results are "reassuringly slightly ahead on new sales, margins and profits" but "all eyes" are focusing on the long awaited capital management update.
He thinks the proposed capital returns are "attractive" but the 50% implied payout of consensus net free surplus "is lower than we expect some investors were looking for".
1.05pm: Netflix looks to follow up on its most popular film
After Netflix's KPop Demon Hunters became the streaming company's most-watched film of all time, with more than 236 million views, there are reports out today that a sequel is in the pipeline.
Director Maggie Kang, who came up with the original idea for the film, is expected to helm the follow-up.
The film was made by Sony Pictures, as part of a deal with Netflix.
According to Deadline, Netflix has "started early talks" about a sequel.
12.19pm: FTSE hugs floor, US futures too
The FTSE 100 has been hugging the ground for the second half of the morning, while elsewhere in Europe the main stock benchmarks are in the red, apart from a small bounce in Paris for the CAC 40.
US futures are similarly circumspect, with the three major indices all less than 0.1% above where they finished yesterday.
Germany's DAX is down a tad as investors reacted to the latest GfK consumer survey coming in below expectations at its lowest level since March.
The CAC's rebound is depite market concerns about political instability linked to Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s upcoming confidence vote.
"Opposition parties have signalled they will not support Bayrou’s proposals, raising doubts about the government’s ability to pass its 2026 budget," says David Morrison at Trade Nation.
In Asia earlier, the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.8% and 1.3% as "both indices seemed to suffer some profit-taking as investors consider the implications for Chinese equities ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release after the US close tonight", says Morrison.
India’s Nifty 50 dropped 1% as the US 50% tariff on Indian exports begins.
Investors are "braced" for the Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) quarterly results later, which Morrison says are "likely to be decisive in either taking Nvidia to new heights or, should they disappoint for the first time in many years, sharply lower should investors decide to head for the exits".
"Nvidia is widely viewed as a barometer for the broader market and the main driver of this year’s AI-driven rally."
Elsewhere, MongoDB Inc (NASDAQ:MDB) surged over 30% in after-hours trading on the back of earnings and guidance that topped Wall Street expectations.
11.29am: UK retail sentiment still poor
The CBI retail sales gauge for August showed a slight increase, rising to -32 from -34 in July.
This improvement, although still in negative territory, was slightly better than the -33 expected.
Retail sales volumes fell at a strong pace in the year to August – the eleventh month in a row of decline – the CBI’s distributive trades survey showed, with retailers expecting the pace of decline to ease in September.
More retailers judged sales for the time of year to be "poor", at -19% compared to -10% in July.
Sentiment among retailers remained poor, with their business situation expected to deteriorate over the coming quarter, but to a lesser extent than last quarter, at -10% versus -29% in May.
11.49am: More on the EU food deal
British exporters are actually forking out up to £200 million each year for licences to trade, says the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, which has welcome the announcement today of a timeframe for a permanent UK-EU agreement on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures.
"From Scottish smoked salmon to English sparkling wine, asparagus to cut flowers, and everything in-between, slashing costs and streamlining border checks could support thousands more businesses to share their wares with a world that is hungry for British goods," says director general Marco Forgione.
He says the world is continuing to "adapt to the ongoing muscular unpicking of the rules-based multilateral global system".
With geopolitics testing supply chain resilience, Forgione says "closer trade ties with the EU - the UK's largest single partner - are about delivering smart, sovereign choices for growth for British businesses in every corner of the land".
11.37am: Food price rises to peter out
Recent strength in food prices in the UK and some parts of Europe, coupled with record-hot summer temperatures, have raised concerns about a new bout of food inflation similar to 2022-23.
Economists at Citi say they think "such risks are limited".
The recent strengthening of food prices reflects, in their view, "the lagged effects of previous costs increases and we see it soon peaking out".
11.14am: UK-EU food deal 'can't come soon enough' say UK businesses
Today the government is outlining plans for a new agri-food deal with the EU, easing trade barriers after more than £60 million has been spent by UK food exporters on licences to sell agricultural products to the continental bloc in each of the past four years.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the EU Relations Minister, will say in a speech today that he aims to sign new agreement with the EU in the next 18 months, which will eliminate these costs and other barriers.
The British Chambers of Commerce said a strong agri-food deal "will remove costs, red tape and delays for UK businesses".
Removing such costs "will reduce inflationary pressures and make supply chains more secure", said the BCC's head of trade policy, William Bain.
"A permanent deal with the EU can’t come soon enough for UK firms. In the talks ahead ministers must deliver a deal that truly unburdens business and cuts costs. Consumers will then reap the benefits in their shopping baskets.
"Making trade with the EU quicker, cheaper and simpler is crucial to boosting economic growth in the years ahead."
11.02am: Ofgem price cap higher due to renewables, says analyst
Ofgem's new energy price cap rise of 2% in October "is not unexpected", says analyst Ashley Kelty at Panmure Liberum, who reckons it "will continue to rise as the costs of subsidising wind power projects are passed through to consumers".
He notes that the strike price on CfDs at the latest renewables allocation round was hiked 11% to £113/MWh last month, and the increase is hoped to stimulate more demand for the AR7 wind licensing round.
Kelty supplies some context by noting that the current UK natural gas prices are around £29/MWh.
"The large increase is needed to reflect market conditions – with wind developers struggling to make returns even at these high prices. Consequently, the chances of the Government delivering on its pledge to reduce bills by £300 looks even more remote, with renewables clearly not cheap by any measure."
However, this comparison is far from perfect, as a strike price of £113/MWh under the latest CfD auction does not mean renewables are currently costing consumers £113/MWh, as CfDs are long-term contracts guaranteeing generators a fixed price per MWh over many years, generally for new projects that haven’t even been built yet.
If the wholesale power prices are above the strike price, generators pay back the difference, with many CfD-backed wind farms and solar projects having paid money back to the system operator in 2022-23 because their strike prices were far below the market price.
Network charges, balancing services and legacy subsidies make up almost half of a UK electricity bill, with gas-fired generation often setting the wholesale price for all electricity.
While wholesale gas prices have fallen back to where they were in 2020, electricity is still double the 2020 average, largely because of how the UK market prices power using the marginal pricing system.
And bills are not lower due to rising non-commodity costs, especially network charges, balancing services, and policy levies.
10.42am: US tariffs on India - why they started and what might happen
As Donald Trump's new 50% tariffs on India kick in today, we have some comments from a portfolio manager focused on the country,
Andy Draycott, manager of the Chikara Indian Subcontinent Fund, said the draconian tariffs have "rattled India’s elite as they grapple with an unprecedented about turn from US policy makers who until earlier this year had spent two decades cultivating the ‘Howdy Modi’ US/Indian love in".
He believes Trump changed his tune during the trade negotiations, when India held firm on their red line to not open the politically sensitive agricultural sector to American imports.
"This appears to have kicked off a chain reaction that has culminated in Navarro & Bessent calculating that India has been profiteering on cheap Russian crude, with assertions that India’s moguls have made in excess of $16 billion at the expense of Ukraine’s people."
This may or may not be true, but that is a moot point, says Draycott, perhaps a political gambling pawn in order to get India to drag a reticent Putin to the negotiating table.
But India, as America well knows, "cannot decouple from Russia, for the simple reason over 50% of installed military hardware is procured from there", adding that relationships between the two countries far more stable than US/Indian relations over the past fifty years.
If the rates pervade, the fund manager says they will have bigger implications than the net $40 billion that India usually exports to the US, in jewellery, leather, shrimps etc.
"Both India and the Trump administration are waiting to see who blinks first, but if neither do, then America will push India towards BRICS integration, and longer term significantly impact the relevance of the US dollar."
If Brazil, Russia, India and China – representing 40% of global population and GDP – decide America is no longer a reliable partner, "how long before they trade in yuan or rupees?" Draycott wonders.
"It is our belief that Trump wants a deal. He wants Putin to cease the war, and for India to open its borders; in the eventuality he gets what he wants, we suspect the tariffs will be dropped, but if neither is achieved, then ramifications for both the dollar and BRICs will likely be long lasting.
"Indian equity investors should be cautious about overestimating the risks posed by US tariffs alone.
"The macro impact looks set to be relatively contained with Moody’s having predicted a drag of just 0.3% on the Indian economy if 50% tariffs were introduced. Even then, real GDP growth is still expected to come in at 6%."
10.21am: Nvidia is big focus today
Global markets are "trading with a cautious tone" this morning, says market analyst Josh Mahony at Rostro, saying investors have plenty to digest at the moment.
London's Footsie ie being held back by falls for banks and financials this morning, with NatWest, Barclays and Standard Chartered among the top four fallers.
"Today’s main event likely comes after to US close, with earnings from Nvidia largely wrapping up the second quarter US earnings season, he says.
Following an incredible rise, which has taken the company first to a $1 trillion valuation and then over $4 trillion market cap in just two years, Mahony says markets "are constantly second guessing when this gravy train will come to a halt" but Nvidia's ability to consistently beat market earnings expectations has helped drive the stock on its upward trajectory.
"This time around there will be plenty of focus on both the backwards looking data, but also a significant focus on how the company sees the second half of 2025.
"While Trump has allowed the export of H20 chips (with a 15% tax), the Chinese government have ensured that companies look elsewhere.
"As such, a significant focus will be on how Nvidia plans to overcome this hurdle by developing a new chip for the Chinese market.
"Meanwhile, traders will be watching closely for updates on demand for the Blackwell chips, with the company expecting this new product will provide a fresh source of demand going forward."
9.58am: FTSE back to square one
The FTSE 100 has slumped back to almost where it finished yesterday at 9,268.55, having climbed up to above 9,300 in early trading.
JD Sports is up 3.3% to its highest levels since January.
Next in line are Pershing Square, Severn Trent, SSE and National Grid. Is this to do with the sector or because gilt yields are falling?
Across on mainland Europe, the DAX is down 0.3%, France's CAC is tiptoing up 0.2% while Spain's IBEX and Italy's MIB are down 0.6% and 0.8%.
The Paris index is "rebounding after Tuesday’s political sell-off", says market analyst Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor.
"US futures are pointing to a flat open with markets in wait and see mode ahead of Nvidia’s earnings which could mark a pivotal moment for jittery markets."
Her ii colleague Richard Hunter flags half-year results from Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU), which sent its shares higher but now down almost 1%.
"Prudential’s new strategy and fresh purpose is increasingly evident, with an update which breezed past estimates from all angles, enabling a further boost to shareholder returns," he says, with the company pre-announcing a $500 million share buyback in 2026 and $600 million in 2027 following the completion of the current $2 billion programme.
"The outlook comments are upbeat and reiterate expectations for double digit growth in new business profit for this year.
"The highlight, however, is the group’s assertion that it has reached an inflection point in its growth of free surplus capital generation, which in turn will result in higher shareholder returns."
A 13% increase in the dividend only takes the projected yield to a "pedestrian" 1.8%, though he says the share buybacks "should prove more than enough to assuage investors".
9.29am: A couple of fallers
Hochschild Mining shares have tumbled almost 15% to a two-month low as the precious metals miner cut its guidance for the year due to work at its Mara Rosa mine in Brazil.
Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was up 27% at US$224.5 million, around 2% ahead of consensus expectations, but the Mara Rosa plant in Brazil continues to operate below steady-state levels.
The FTSE 250 group has cut its 2025 production guidance to 291k-319k gold equivalent ounces, down from 350k-378k previously.
A smaller faller is Cykel AI PLC, down 23% after it flagged "advanced discussions with a strategic investor group", which may make a significant equity investment.
The potential equity raise would fund development of the business and a revised treasury strategy enabling investment in Solana and stablecoins, the AI agent company said in a brief statement. Cykel AI is one of Jonathan Bixby's stable.
8.56am: JD 'still struggling but remains cash generative'
Second-quarter trading updated from JD Sports highlights that LFL sales "are still struggling", says Shore Capital analyst David Hughes.
However, he notes that there is an improving trend in the US and there were "tough comparators" for the UK and Europe given the Euros last year.
The company still expects full-year adjusted PBT to be in line with the City consensus, though Hughes points out that the average profit forecast has come down since the company's last update.
"Despite the tough conditions, the business remains highly cash generative, which supports the announcement of a new £100 million share buyback," he adds, which is around 2% of the group's market cap.
Hughes also says that the slight fall in profit margins "shows that despite the temptation to step up promotions given the challenging promotional environment, JD is maintaining its promotional discipline."
8.33am: Business headlines
Other business headlines this morning
India is from today facing 50% tariffs to the US, is the FT's lead story, alongside another asking if the UK’s giant new nuclear power station is ‘unbuildable’?
Elsewhere, in a story close to my heart, we heard from the pink (well, salmon) newspaper reports that the Dutch are "quietly shifting towards a four-day work week".
Thames Water has agreed a payment plan with the water regulator for fines it owes worth £123 million, reports the Guardian, with the UK's largest water company racing to secure funding to avoid temporary nationalisation.
Earlier this month, the government approved the appointment of insolvency advisers to consult on plans for Thames Water to be placed into a special administration regime.
There's some froth in the Telegraph's business pages about the Co-op's decision to stock a Palestinian beer brand after reportedly 'banning' produce from Israel.
The CEO of the Gaucho restaurant chain has issued a "stark warning" to Rachel Reeves over tax hikes, says the Independent.
Baton Berisha has called for the Chancellor to lower National Insurance contributions back to where they were before April’s increase and said he had the backing of others in the industry wanting the same, after the accommodation and food services sector saw a 5.6% year-on-year decline in employee numbers in the 12 months to May.
8.12am: FTSE 100 starts higher, led by JD
The FTSE 100 has climbed 27 points to 9,293 in initial trades.
JD Sports is the top riser, up 1.6%, followed by National Grid - more on both below.
Bunzl, which reported yesterday, is bottom of the list, down 1.4%, while precious metals miners Endeavour and Fresnillo are next as gold prices drop back a little.
8am: JD sales growth slows further, £100m buyback launched
JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD.) has announced a £100 million share buyback as it reported lower second quarter sales, but flagged "resilient" consumers and "disciplined" pricing despite a promotional market.
Group like-for-like sales fell 3% in the 13 weeks to 2 August, with organic growth of 2.2%, compared to the first quarter that saw LFL sales down 2% and organic sales grow 3.1%.
Margins were supported by “controlled price investments,” particularly online, with management stressing a cautious approach to discounting to protect profitability.
CEO Regis Schultz says full-year profit before tax and adjusting items are expected to be "in line with current market expectations, before any indirect impact of US tariffs which we continue to work through".
7.49am: National Grid wants more generous terms
From BasePoint to base load, National Grid PLC (LSE:NG.) has submitted its response to the regulator's draft determination for its NG Electricity Transmission business - and in essence it wants two things: better returns for investors and simpler, more flexible funding rules.
The group says the baseline return and incentives offered in the draft plan are not attractive enough to draw in the huge amount of private capital needed.
"Changes are needed in relation to the baseline return and the incentives framework to allow high performing networks to achieve a globally competitive overall return," which would raise the money to build out the network (25 new substations, upgrades to 10% of existing substations, five power flow control lines to help get power from windfarms in the north down to cities in the south, improvements to about 3,500km of overhead lines, etc etc).
NG argues the current framework is also too complex and slow, and want Ofgem to streamline the way costs are approved and recovered, so they can move projects forward quickly without delays.
7.25am: IPF still in talks with BasePoint
International Personal Finance has requested more time to continue talks with US-based BasePoint Capital about a potential takeover offer.
News of talks about a potential cash offer to be made by BasePoint emerged last month.
IPF said the two sides are continuing discussions and have called for the deadline for the US-based speciality lender to make a firm offer to be pushed back to 24 September.
7.18am: UK energy price cap nudged up
Energy regulator Ofgem has announced that the energy price cap will rise 2% for the final quarter of 2025.
This will mean that the average maximum bill that a household will face for the last three months of the year will rise by around £2.93 a month for the average household on a variable tariff.
If that wasn't clear, Ofgem said a typical household on a default tariff will pay £102 for what currently costs £100 per month.
7.15am: FTSE 100 rebound on the cards
A rebound is on the cards for the FTSE 100 on Wednesday, as Wall Street dealt a positive hand overnight in anticipation of Nvidia's earnings tonight.
London's blue-chip index is being called 38 points higher on the futures market this morning, having dropped almost 56 points to close at 9,265.8 yesterday.
This was in line with declines elsewhere in Europe, while across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.4%, while the Dow Jones rose 0.3%.
Asian markets are mostly lower this morning, with only Japan's Nikkei in green.