BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) full-year results were comfortably in line with expectations, and shareholders should be pleased with a slightly better-than-expected final dividend and signs of a more flexible approach to capital returns.
The mining group reported revenue of US$51.26bn, almost exactly matching the consensus estimate of US$51.29bn.
Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) came in at US$25.98bn, just ahead of forecasts, while operating income of US$10.16bn was bang in line.
Performance by commodity was mixed. Iron ore, the group's cash cow, delivered Ebitda of US$14.4bn, close to the US$14.54bn expected.
Coal was softer at US$573m against a consensus of US$739m, while copper stood out, beating forecasts with US$12.33bn of Ebitda, helped in part by strong prices for by-products such as gold and silver. The ‘Other’ segment also surprised positively.
Panmure Liberum noted that these moving parts ultimately cancelled each other out, leading to an overall “in line” result.
But the final dividend of 60 cents per share, taking the full-year total to US$1.10, was well ahead of the expected 51 cents.
The balance sheet also remains strong. Net debt fell to US$12.92bn, better than the expected US$13.21bn.
More notably, BHP has raised its target net debt range from US$5bn–15bn to US$10bn–20bn, a move Panmure sees as potentially supportive of “stronger capital returns going forward”.
Elsewhere, the miner has reduced its capital expenditure guidance for financial years 2028 to 2030 by US$1bn per year, now targeting US$10bn annually.
That reflects a more measured approach to long-term investment as inflationary pressures begin to ease, even if costs remain well above pre-Covid levels.
China, BHP’s key market, also provided a supportive backdrop. Growth in the first half of 2025 came in at 5.3 per cent, aided by fiscal stimulus and a rush to export goods ahead of new United States tariffs.
That momentum is expected to slow, but BHP sees ongoing policy support as a stabilising factor.
Copper and steel demand in China were both stronger than anticipated.
The shares rose 2% to 2,025p.
Panmure is keeping its 'hold' rating and 1,750p price target. RBC, meanwhile, maintains its 'sector perform' recommendation.
"BHP reported another strong set of results, which highlights the consistency of the business," the Canadian bank added.