Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU earnings
Earnings season in Australia is well and truly upon us, with a bumper fortnight on the way. This week will see BHP, CSL, Woodside and Goodman Group posting results, providing key insights into the health of Australia’s mining and technology sectors.
It might be a difficult reporting season for resource names. The mining and energy sector’s profits are forecast to plunge nearly 20% year-on-year, mainly due to lower commodity prices. This will mark the second straight year of earnings contraction for miners. Investors will be watching if this marks a trough. Interestingly, resource stocks have lagged far behind financial stocks over the past year, and that performance gap remains wide.
A recent update from BHP did show solid production numbers and operational efficiency. So watch for further signs of stabilising iron ore demand or cost-out successes that could spark a rotation back into beaten-down miners. On the other hand, continued caution from majors would reinforce the drag that this sector is placing on the broader market.
In stark contrast to most sectors, tech and related companies continue to shine. Many tech firms are still benefiting from secular trends (cloud software, digitalisation, AI adoption) that drive high revenue growth. The theme of AI will also be front and centre: companies across various sectors have been highlighting investments in artificial intelligence. Earnings results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta show that the AI boom is in full swing and translating well into the bottom line. This is what Aussie tech companies will need to start delivering, with the market wanting to see double-digit profit increases, especially against their elevated valuations. In short, the bar is high for tech; any miss could trigger outsized sell-offs, while strong results will reinforce the sector’s status as a market leader.
If companies report that things are generally under control, costs manageable, demand ticking along, and outlook stable, it will reinforce the view that Australia is navigating this challenging period well and perhaps justify the market’s high valuation. But if we hear a chorus of concern about weakening sales, squeezed profits, or cautious outlooks, then questions will arise about whether the market’s optimism has been overdone.
Qantas has had a rough start to the week, with a court ruling the airline must pay a hefty $90m fine for illegally sacking 1,800 workers. This won’t be reflected in this latest set of results but given CEO Vanessa Hudson’s concentrated effort to improve the brand’s damaged reputation while also keeping profits on track, this will be a significant hit to the leadership team’s confidence. It will be interesting to see how this latest development impacts the company’s outlook for the rest of the year.
AU consumer confidence
Consumer sentiment figures, released tomorrow, should provide us with some interesting insights into the mindset of the Aussie shopper. The relief of a rate cut is now in their hands, but plenty of broader factors stoking uncertainty are likely to have continued driving some hesitation at the checkout.
Consumer confidence globally is struggling. Particularly in the UK and the US, there have been significant drops over the last year due to fears of rising prices. Despite persistent inflation, Australia seems to have avoided too much of an impact to confidence, and we’ll likely see it improve from here with at least one more rate cut priced in for the year.
Alibaba earnings
After years of underperformance and heavy scepticism from global investors, Alibaba has finally stepped up in 2025, with shares climbing about 55% this year. Sentiment towards Chinese tech may finally be beginning to turn.
This week’s earnings will test how well the company’s aggressive “all-in on AI” pivot is delivering, especially in open-source models and cloud revenue, where Alibaba is staking its claim as a top-tier AI player in China.
Despite competition in both domestic and global cloud markets, where Alibaba still lags behind hyperscalers like AWS and Azure, it remains profitable and trades at a discount to global AI peers. If it can show meaningful AI-led revenue traction or margin growth in cloud, it could reshape the narrative on its valuation.
Easing US–China tensions and renewed inflows into Chinese tech could add further upside, provided Alibaba can deliver results that match the optimism.