Australian shares are poised for a muted start to the week, with ASX 200 futures up just 5 points (+0.05%) at 8:30 am AEST, despite a strong tech-led rally Friday on Wall Street. The Nasdaq closed at a record high for the second straight session, powered by Apple’s blistering run — up 13% for the week in its best performance since 2020.
The S&P 500 ended just shy of a record close, while gains in US technology and communications sectors helped lift broader sentiment ahead of a busy week for global data and central bank moves. Locally, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia, which begins its two-day policy meeting today, with markets fully pricing in a 25 bp cut to 3.6%.
Friday’s session saw the ASX 200 slip 0.28% to 8,807.1, weighed by financials and healthcare, even as materials stocks rose 1.4% on stronger commodity prices. The index still finished the week 1.7% higher.
Wall Street sets the pace
It was a strong close to the week in New York, with the Nasdaq up 0.98% to 21,450 for a record finish, the S&P 500 gaining 0.78% to 6,389, and the Dow Jones rising 0.47% to 44,176.
Apple surged 4.2% after confirming a further US$100 billion investment in the US, bringing its four-year pledged total to US$600 billion. Chipmakers and AI-linked stocks also gained, with TSMC reporting a 26% jump in July sales on AI chip demand.
Investors are now assigning an 89% chance of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, up sharply from 40% just over a week ago, as last week’s weak labour data reinforced expectations of easier policy. This week’s US inflation figures — starting with July CPI on Tuesday — will be closely watched.
ASX earnings season heats up
Locally, reporting season shifts up a gear today, with Car Group and JB Hi-Fi among the early focus. Car Group shares will be in the spotlight after the company delivered an 8% lift in full-year revenue to $1.18 billion and a 10% increase in net profit to $275 million. JB Hi-Fi, meanwhile, enters the day under a bright spotlight, trading on a lofty 28-times earnings multiple — its highest since the GFC — with the market looking for $10.5 billion in revenue, $473.2 million in profit and gross margins of 22.2%.
Other results are due from Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT, Iress and Stanmore Resources. In the tech space, Block shares could be tested after their US-listed counterpart slid 4.5% on Friday, with upbeat earnings overshadowed by a heavy sell-off in Sezzle following a weaker outlook for the BNPL sector.
Commodities and currencies
Commodity markets were mixed, with gold holding near recent highs after last week’s tariff-driven volatility and oil prices steadying after a week of losses. The Australian dollar was little changed against the greenback.
- Gold: US$3,397.28 (-0.08%);
- Brent crude: US$66.11 (-0.48%);
- Copper: US$4.4569/lb (-0.14%);
- Iron ore (futures): US$101.22 (+0.01%);
- AUD/USD: 0.6522 (flat);
- Bitcoin: US$118,705 (+1.82%).
Global backdrop
European markets ended mixed Friday but logged their biggest weekly gain in three months, boosted by banking stocks and speculation over a possible Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. The Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.3% for the day, while Germany’s DAX rose 3.2% for the week.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.85% on Friday as tech shares tracked US gains. Chinese markets slipped modestly, with inflation data showing July CPI flat year-on-year and producer prices down 3.6%, underlining ongoing demand weakness.
What’s ahead today
Reporting season continues, while GTN is set to pay a dividend, and Alcoa and Domain Holdings trade ex-dividend. There are no major economic announcements due today, with attention turning to the RBA’s two-day policy meeting beginning tomorrow.
Offshore, the focus will be on releases including the US CPI, UK unemployment and the Eurozone ZEW survey, which could set the tone for risk appetite through mid-week.