FDM Group (LSE:FDM) has endured what Deutsche Bank’s Tintin Stormont calls “the 3rd year of a stark correction” since its 2022 peak, and the fresh 145p target (down from 275p) underlines the severity.
Consultant headcount is set to plunge to around 2,000 by year-end, barely half the 4,900 staffing levels at the end of 2022, dragging revenues firmly south.
Stormont’s 2025 adjusted EBIT forecast of £14m is more reminiscent of pre-2011 performance than the £52m at peak.
Still, it isn’t all gloom. Australia remains a bright spot, the UK Government pipeline is healthy, and retail and insurance clients are still opening their chequebooks.
There are “ongoing conversations regarding future deployments and projects with existing and potential clients,” suggesting goodwill is intact even if commitment is slow.
That slow burn is most evident in FDM’s core banking and finance markets, still accounting for roughly 55–60% of revenues, where risk-averse clients are dithering through protracted procurement processes.
Until confidence returns, meaningful deal wins won’t materialise until late H2.
Trading at 123.4p, the shares already reflect that caution. With sentiment likely muted until client intent crystallises, FDM remains a 'hold'.
But if those pipeline talks convert into bookings, this retrenchment could set the stage for an overdue recovery.