4:10pm: More Mag 7 on deck
Stocks slipped Thursday as investors braced for Friday’s tariff deadline and awaited fresh earnings from tech heavyweights, though that didn’t stop markets from wrapping up another winning month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 330 points, or 0.7%, to 44,131. The S&P 500 lost 0.4% to finish at 6,339. The Nasdaq Composite ended virtually flat, dipping just 7 points to 21,122, while the small-cap Russell 2000 lagged with a 1% slide to 2,209.
Despite the day’s pullback, July was kind to investors. The S&P 500 notched a 2.3% monthly gain, its third straight, and the Nasdaq rose 3.7%, marking its fourth consecutive advance. The Dow, meanwhile, ended the month roughly unchanged after a stretch of record-setting closes.
Much of the recent optimism has been fueled by strong showings from the tech sector. Earnings from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) this week reinforced market confidence in the ongoing wave of AI-driven investment.
Now, all eyes are turning to Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), with both set to report earnings after the bell. Their results could help shape the narrative heading into August.
Traders were also watching Washington, where President Trump is expected to outline new trade terms as tariffs are set to take effect on Friday. Earlier today, Trump extended current tariff rates on imports from Mexico, America’s largest trading partner, for another 90 days as negotiations continue on a broader agreement.
2:05pm: Ford reinstates 2025 guidance
Deutsche Bank said Ford’s reintroduced 2025 guidance was stronger than expected, with the automaker now forecasting full-year EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, compared to consensus at $6.8 billion and the bank’s prior estimate of $7.1 billion. While Ford previously guided EBIT of $7.0–$8.5 billion back in February, Deutsche noted that the $750 million reduction now "implies an underlying improvement of $1.25 billion" despite absorbing $2 billion in net tariff costs.
The firm said this improvement is mainly due to “better cost performance and market factors.” Ford now anticipates $3 billion in gross tariff impact, offset by $1 billion in mitigation, driven largely by higher input costs such as steel and aluminum. The second half of the year is expected to see a $650 million EBIT improvement, largely from stronger volume and mix as early-year headwinds such as plant downtime and inventory de-stocking fade. Free cash flow guidance remains at $3.5–$4.5 billion, with a boost from better inventory management and Ford Credit outperformance.
12:45pm: Mexico gets reprieve
The Nasdaq started Thursday afternoon 0.9% higher, leading US markets after President Trump said he would delay new tariffs on Mexico, offering markets some breathing room on the trade front.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Dow Jones added a modest 0.1%.
In a post on social media, Trump said he’s giving Mexico a 90-day extension on current tariff rates following a conversation with President Claudia Sheinbaum. “We will be talking to Mexico over the next 90 Days with the goal of signing a Trade Deal somewhere within the 90 Day period of time, or longer,” he wrote.
The last-minute move avoids a major tariff hike set to kick in Friday and follows a burst of trade activity from the White House this week. Trump announced a new deal with South Korea and said agreements with Taiwan, Thailand, and Cambodia are also in the works.
11:55am: Meta’s AI strategy paying off
Meta’s second-quarter revenue of $47.5 billion exceeded Wall Street expectations of $44.8 billion, while GAAP EPS came in at $7.14, well above consensus of $5.89.
Bank of America analysts raised their 2026 EPS estimate by 12% to $32.63 despite increasing expense forecasts, citing stronger monetization, user growth, and engagement. “A strong 3Q outlook suggests AI investments are delivering results & we think Street will remain optimistic on future revenue upside potential,” the analysts wrote.
They also highlighted the risks of investor sentiment turning if revenue growth fails to keep pace with AI investment. Meta is planning to raise capex to $30 billion next year, with expenses expected to grow more than 25% as it invests heavily in developing superintelligent AI.
Despite these risks, Bank of America sees Meta as a leading near-term AI beneficiary. “We continue to view Meta as one of the top AI beneficiaries in our coverage & believe the company is well positioned to lead in an emerging agentic AI ecosystem,” the note said.
11:20am: Microsoft delivers 'slam dunk'
Microsoft Corp's (NASDAQ:MSFT) latest results are in, and once again, they’re described as a “slam dunk” by Wedbush analysts. That's no small praise from one of Wall Street’s most influential tech watchers.
Wedbush’s Scott Devitt described Microsoft as “firmly in the driver’s seat” of global tech, lifting his price target to $600.
Microsoft is ploughing billions into data centres and AI infrastructure, betting that digital transformation is only getting started.
According to Wedbush, Microsoft is “just beginning” its journey in turning AI investment into hard cash. Enterprises globally are set to spend much more in this area over the coming years, giving Microsoft a long growth runway.
10:50am: Spending steady, inflation up
Inflation ticked higher in June due to rising energy prices and tariffs, while consumer spending rose modestly but mostly just kept pace with price increases, according to Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank.
“Consumer spending rose decently in June, but that mostly just kept spending in line with price increases,” Adams said, noting that real spending remained below April’s level.
Inflation came in slightly above expectations, with core PCE rising 2.8% year-over-year, and Adams attributed the uptick largely to upward revisions to previous months’ data and rising costs for imported goods like furnishings.
Jobless claims data indicate the labor market remained solid into late July, supporting Comerica’s forecast for Friday’s jobs report to show continued low unemployment, which Adams said most Fed officials will interpret as validation for holding rates steady.
10:20am: June PCE inflation slightly hotter
PCE inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year in June, slightly above the 2.5% forecast, while core PCE increased 2.79%, topping expectations of 2.7%. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with estimates.
Personal spending grew 0.3%, just below the expected 0.4%, while personal income came in stronger than forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% expected.
9.55am: Microsoft joins $4trn club
Wall Street has started higher, led by Nasdaq tech behemoths Meta and Microsoft after their strong earnings last night.
The Nasdaq Composite opened 1% higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% and the Dow Jones up 0.1%. The more domestically focused small- and mid-cap Russell 2000 index has dropped 1%.
Microsoft, up 5.7%, has joined Nvidia in the $4 trillion club, while Meta has gained 11.5% to move not far from $2 trillion.
Elsewhere, eBay is up 16% after raising full-year guidance, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings sailed 15% higher as its lashed its profit forecast to the mast as bookings rebounded from a soft start.
8.20am: Rip-roaring start for Nasdaq expected
Wall Street is set for a rip-roaring start on Thursday, following earnings from Microsoft and Meta overnight that both smashed past expectations.
Led by an 11% premarket gain for the Instagram owner and 8% for the Windows operating system developer, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.2% and the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while Dow Jones futures are up 0.2%.
This followed a mixed session the day before, with the Dow falling 0.4% and the S&P 500 dipping 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.15%.
After the US Federal Reserve kept policy on hold, the VIX volatility gauge spiked 11% and the three big indexes fell around 1% and the Russell 2000 lost 2%.
The market's tone moved "from complacency to ‘annoyance’", said market analyst Kenny Polcari at Slatestone, before "in the end, cooler heads eventually prevailed".
Donald Trump ranted in an early-morning social media post that Jerome Powell is "too late, and actually too angry, too stupid & too political to have the job of Fed Chair".
Ahead of Friday's August 1 tariff deadline, the President also confirmed that refined copper will be excluded from new tariffs that will take effect on Friday, sending US copper prices down 5.6% to below $4.50 a pound, extending a nearly 20% drop in the past few days to erase a premium that had emerged compared to European prices.
Attention has mostly moved to the tech sector, with other earnings incoming later, Apple and Amazon this evening.
After yesterday's closing bell, Meta Platforms reported quarterly earnings that blew past expectations as strong advertising sales and continued momentum across its apps boosted growth.
Over at Microsoft, its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share surged 24% to beat the Street forecasts as Cloud revenue climbed 27%.
CEO Satya Nadella hailed Cloud and AI as "the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector".
The pair delivered "the kind of earnings most companies can only dream of," says analyst Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell, smashing market forecasts "by a country mile".
Both companies outlined significant sums invested to boost AI infrastructure, backed by solid income from their core businesses to help to fund this.
Mastercard, AbbVie, S&P Global, Bristol-Myers Squibb, KKR and Sanofi and Comcast are among the pre-market earnings today, while joining Amazon and Apple after the close are Strategy (formerly Microstrategy), Stryker, Coinbase, Cloudflare, Illumina and Riot Platforms.