4.52pm: Stocks stall
The FTSE 100 closed down 4 points at 9,132 as tariff concerns overshadowed strong earnings from tech giants in the US.
“The morning’s positive atmosphere has given way to much more cautious trading,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“Last night’s tech results seemed to deliver the tonic investors had been looking for, but caught between more tech earnings and some harsh tariff rhetoric, stocks have given back their gains.”
4.03pm: FTSE hits the wall
The FTSE 100 has hit the wall after its early sprint to a record high, dropping into the red a few minutes ago with the finishing line in sight.
Top of the leaderboard going into the final straight are St James's Place, Rentokil Initial and Rolls-Royce, up 9.5%, 9.4% and 7.6% respectively.
At the other end, Mondi is down 11%, LSE Group 7.9% and Antofagasta 5.8%, with other miners Anglo American, Glencore, Frensillo, Rio Tinto and Endeavour all close behind as copper and gold prices drop.
Guinness maker Diageo, which reports next week, is down 4%, while British Airways parent IAG is up 2.6% ahead of its numbers tomorrow.
2.47pm: Wall Street boosted by tech
US big-caps have started higher, led by the Nasdaq's tech behemoths Meta and Microsoft.
The Nasdaq Composite has opened 1% higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% and the Dow Jones up 0.1%. The more domestically focused small- and mid-cap Russell 2000 index has dropped 1%.
Microsoft, up 5.7%, has joined Nvidia in the $4 trillion club, while Meta has gained 11.5% to move not far from $2 trillion.
Elsewhere, eBay is up 16% after raising full-year guidance, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings sailed 15% higher as its lashed its profit forecast to the mast as bookings rebounded from a soft start.
Back in London, the FTSE has given up some of its gains, up just 17 points now.
2.28pm: US inflation analysis
The post-tariff trend in consumers’ spending "looks very soft" after the PCE report earlier, says economist Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He points to the "meagre" 0.1% increase in June, reversing less than half of the 0.2% drop in May.
Spending on services was also "very weak", rising by just 0.1% for the third straight month, with discretionary spending on services looking "especially subdued", with spending on airfares down a further 1.1%, the fifth decline in the past six months, and spending on recreation services dropping 0.7%.
"The weak starting point towards the end of Q2 and further likely hit to real income growth from tariff-induced price rises and the slackening labor market mean a sub-1% increase in consumers’ spending in Q3 looks very likely," says Allen.
He thinks the core PCE deflator will increase by around 0.4% in July, with further increases pushing up core PCE inflation to nearly 3.5% by the end of the year.
"Only around a quarter of the uplift to core prices that we expect due to the tariffs had fed through to consumers by June, and the 2018 experience suggests that pass-through to consumers is most intense three-to-six months later.
"Services inflation is likely to remain relatively stable given the ongoing downward pressure on wage growth. Accordingly, we doubt a one-time jump in core goods inflation will prevent the Fed from easing in September."
1.57pm: US inflation
Some US inflation data is out.
Real consumption edged up by 0.1% in June, in line with consensus forecasts.
Nominal personal incomes rose 0.3%, slightly above the consensus forecast of 0.2%.
The core PCE deflator increased 0.3%, also in line with the consensus.
1.16pm: Just Group bid shows UK mid-caps still cheap
The recommended offer for Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST), valuing the business at £2.4 billion and pitched at a premium of 75% to the previous closing price, is the tenth £1 billion-plus offer for London stocks so far in 2025.
"There is an old saying that bull markets only end when the money runs out, but right now the UK stock market is showering investors in cash, so the still seemingly unloved headline indices could yet continue to keep confounding the doubters,” says AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould.
With the FTSE 100 standing above 9,000 for the first time, the FTSE 350 above 5,000 and the FTSE All-Share edging towards 5,000 for the first time as well, he says this is all helped by "healthy dividends, share buybacks and also takeover activity".
The takeovers, also including one for small cap Empresaria, are interesting for two reasons, says Mould.
"First, they suggest that someone, somewhere still thinks that UK stocks are cheap, given the average takeover premium of 38% offered so far in 2025 on 45 bids that have either closed or are still live," he stattoes, with today's two bids both at levels way above the prevailing share price.
Second, he reminds investors that merger and acquisition activity also "puts cash back in investors’ pockets" that is normally redeployed by buying something else.
While not every offer from a predator is cash only (Assura, Bakkavor, Urban Logistics REIT, Marlow and Dowlais all are cash-and-shares deals), most have come with cash on the table to some degree.
With the Just Group the tenth in 2025 so far topping £1 billion, it also takes the running total to nearly £25 billion for the YTD, equating to 1% of the FTSE All-Share’s £2.5 trillion market capitalisation.
Add the current expected forecast of £91.3 billion in dividend payments from the All-Share and the £54 billion in share buybacks already declared this year, and Mould calculates the total cash return to investors is estimated to be £170 billion.
"The cash inflow is therefore the total opposite of the cash drain that tends to call the top in markets, when investors are seduced by a rash of initial public offerings and new floats and then besieged by second offerings of that same paper."
12.04pm: FTSE and US futures in gree, Euro stocks slip
At midday, the FTSE 100 is up 0.4% and the FTSE 250 has hopped 1% higher, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC have dropped into the red.
The euro has climbed against the dollar and pound after Eurozone unemployment held steady at a downwardly revised 6.2% in June, a touch below the consensus which had expected no change at 6.3%.
US futures remain in green, though there are big differences between the main benchmarks.
Led by the 11% premarket gain for Meta and 8% for Microsoft, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.3% and S&P 500 is up 0.9%, while Dow Jones futures are up 0.25%.
Meanwhile, there's some fresh New York IPO news too.
Klarna Group, the buy now, pay later specialist, is "preparing to formally revive its planned $15bn New York stock market flotation", says Sky News-hound Mark Kleinman.
The aim is to IPO in the autumn, he says.
11.40am: Rolls mid-term guidance looks 'increasingly conservative'
With Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) up 9.6% today, blasting through a new all-time high of £10.80, the shares are up over 140% so far this year and around 1,000% since the start of 2023.
"Extremely strong", ahead of consensus profit forecasts by over a third, says analyst Nick Cunningham at Agency Partners, noting that this was driven mainly by a strong aftermarket performance in Civil Aeroengines, but helped by a strong performance from Power.
Free cashflow also beat his expectations by around 40% and was accompanied by a big interim dividend.
Shore Capital's Jamie Murray also says the results are "excellent", with all key metrics beating expectations, with Civil Aerospace aftermarket driving group operating margins to 19%, up from 14% last year.
"Full year EBIT guidance has been raised by 12.5% alongside a similarly strong, though slightly more modest upgrade to FCF.
"Whilst mid-term targets were reiterated, we believe it is inevitable they will be raised in due course," Murray says, with 2028 EBIT margin guidance of around 16% looking "increasingly conservative in light of today’s numbers".
11.28am: Rentokil analysis
Top of the Footsie leaderboard are two companies up around 10% after results, which does not feel like it would have been a very 'FTSE 100' sort of thing in previous years -- but things are different in 2025.
Rentokil Initial PLC (LSE:RTO) is up 10.9% despite PBT, excluding discontinued operations, falling 9% as margins declined on revenues up 3.1% at constant exchange rates, of which 1.6% was organic.
Peel Hunt analyst Christopher Bamberry notes that Rentokil was encouraged by the results from the satellite branches, (where 100 are now in operation with 150 planned by year-end, supporting organic lead generation), by the flow of sales leads residential and termite growing in June for the first time this year (+6.6%), and by the early results from the door-to-door pilot (started 2Q).
"Expectations of the c.$100m cost reduction opportunity from the integration and attaining margin in North America above 20% post-2026 remain unchanged, but refined timelines may mean that not all branches are fully integrated by that time."
Bamberry reiterated his 'hold' rating, as did Stifel's Sam Dindol, who says the results were in line with his expectations.
North America "remains subdued," he says, though he acknowledges that organic growth did improve in Q2, and that the integration of Terminix will restart in the second half, focused on standalone, commercial branches.
10.43am: Mid cap movers
A few more movers and shakers around the London market.
Specialist recruiter Empresaria Group plc (AIM:EMR) has rocketed 72% with the prospect of a premium-priced takeover, as it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Legacy UK Holdings Limited, for a cash offer priced at 62p per share.
At that price, it pitches a premium of 148% to Tuesday’s closing price of 25p.
Legacy UK seems to be a vehicle for Malini Khanna, Rajiv Khanna, Yajush Khanna, based in Switzerland.
The offer coincides with the withdrawal today of an earlier 60p offer by Planmatics Ltd, controlled by a consortium comprising Peter Gregory, Nigel Marsh and Ashok Vithlani, the latter being a director and shareholder in one of Empresaria's subsidiaries.
Elsewhere, Brent Cross shopping centre owner Hammerson PLC (LSE:HMSO) is up over 4% after the property group announced a £319 million deal to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Birmingham’s Bullring and Grand Central shopping centres.
Pets at Home Group PLC (LSE:PETS) shares have scamped 5% lower after the pets supplies and vets group reported a slight rise in overall consumer revenue but flagged ongoing softness in the pet retail market.
For the 16 weeks to 17 July, consumer revenue was up just 0.4% to £591 million, though the vet business remained a bright spot, with consumer revenue up 7.1% and strong growth in care plans and average transaction values.
In contrast, retail sales were down 3%, reflecting continued weak demand across the sector.
9.51am: Meta astounding, while Microsoft joins $4trn club
Meta and Microsoft delivered "the kind of earnings most companies can only dream of," says analyst Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell, smashing market forecasts "by a country mile".
Meta's quarterly earnings exceeded expectations by 22%, which he calls "an astounding feat", and the Instagram owner has now delivered 10 consecutive quarters of earnings beats.
Its shares jumped 11.5% in pre-market trading, adding $173.6 billion to its valuation to around $1.68 trillion.
Microsoft, meanwhile, has ‘only’ beaten earnings for five quarters in a row, Coatsworth observes, with pre-market trading implying it will join Nvidia in the $4 trillion club.
"Together, Microsoft and Meta are now worth $5.81 trillion which is roughly twice as much as the entire FTSE 100 index. That’s quite something and goes to show how the UK market’s lack of big technology names has left it trailing behind," he adds.
AI was again a key theme from Meta and Microsoft’s results, with both companies spending significant sums of money to boost their AI infrastructure.
"Fortunately, they’ve got solid income from their day job helping to fund this investment," he says, with Microsoft’s cloud computing arm going from strength to strength, and Meta riding high from digital advertising.
"History suggests that companies quickly scale back advertising during gloomier economic conditions. That means Meta needs to make hay while the sun shines."
9.17am: European stocks markets on front foot
The FTSE 100 bagged a new all-time high just above 9,190, up around 57 points or 0.6%, but has since eased back a little.
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE:LSEG) has joined the fallers, despite a new buyback and upgraded guidance, with its shares down 5% now.
Paper and packaging group Mondi is also down over 5% after it issued a cautious outlook for the second half of the year.
Miners Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) and Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) are down between 3% and 5% as copper prices keep falling,
London's blue-chip index is now standing at a 0.2% premium for the morning, while the FTSE 250 is up 0.7%, led by a near-70% gain for Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST) after it agreed to be taken over at an offer price pitched at 75% above last night's close.
Over in Continental Europe, the major indices are all in green too, with Spain's IBEX in the lead, up 1.4%, led by banking sector gains.
Germany's DAX is up 0.6% and France's CAC 0.3%.
The "big story" in markets, says analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo, was in the big tech sector, as Meta and Microsoft delivered "knockout results", sending US stock futures roaring higher and investors looking ahead to results from Apple and Amazon later, plus US inflation before that.
After the Fed hold, he says the next thing to watch is Trump’s tariff deadline tomorrow, with South Korea "the latest to get in the 15% club", while India is getting the cold shoulder 25% tariffs for its dealings with Russia.
European stock markets are responding to the positive move in the US futures and corporate earnings of their own, he says.
There was "no shot in the Arm from AI" for Arm Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:ARM), he notes, with the UK chipmaker's stock dropping 8.5% post-earnings release, as it forecast lower profits due to increased spending on AI-focused developments.
8.50am: Shell resilience on show
More details on Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL), where the shares are up 2.7%, after confirming it is continuing buybacks despite softer financials in the second quarter.
Having spent $3.5 billion on share buybacks in the past quarter and paid out $2.1 billion in dividends, today the oil giant committed to a further $3.5 billion on buy-backs for the current quarter.
Income attributable to shareholders amounted to $3.6 billion for the quarter, down 25% year-on-year and down 25% compared to the first three months of the year as lower trading margins and weaker oil and gas prices weighed on the performance.
Analyst Mark Crouch at eToro says while the financial results are down on last year’s bumper profits they "comfortably exceeded analyst expectations", with buybacks and dividends "a central part of the investment case".
8.37am: Copper keeps falling
The FTSE is being held back by miners in early dealings, as copper prices tumble further.
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) is least affected, down over 2% after reporting a 20% decline in underlying profit for the first half, driven by challenging conditions in the rough diamond market.
The interim dividend was slashed to $0.07 per share, compared to $0.42 this time last year, as the group continues to simplify its portfolio, with the demerger of Valterra Platinum completed and sales of its steelmaking coal and nickel operations agreed.
Antofagasta and Rio Tinto shares have fallen even more, down 5.1% and 3.9% respectively.
Copper prices are down 5.6% to below $4.50 a pound, extending a nearly 20% drop in the previous sessions after President Donald Trump confirmed that refined copper will be excluded from new US tariffs that will take effect on Friday.
8.24am: Next ups guidance, shares slide
Shares in Next PLC (LSE:NXT) opened higher, then fell and are now up again, as investors mull over the clothing retailer raising its full-year profit and sales forecasts.
This followed after a better-than-expected performance in the second quarter, helped in part by the disruption faced by rival Marks & Spencer when a cyber-attack left its website offline for an extended period.
In the thirteen weeks to 26 July, Next reported a 10.5% rise in full price sales compared with last year, above its own guidance.
Trading in both the UK and international markets exceeded expectations, with the UK performance driven by improved summer weather and the knock-on effect of the problems at Marks & Spencer.
The shares have risen over 27% since the start of the year.
8.15am: FTSE starts higher, led by Rolls and Rentokil
The FTSE 100 has risen 29 points to 9,166 in early deals.
Top of the leaderboard are Rentokil Initial and Rolls-Royce, both up over 10%.
Shell is up 2.3% after its second quarter results too.
7.54am: Just Group agrees takeover at 75% premium
Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST), the FTE 250 retirement specialist, has agreed to be taken over by Bermuda-based Brookfield Wealth Solutions for £2.4 billion.
BWS, spun out of Canadian giant Brookfield Corporation in 2021 and listed in New York and Toronto, will pay Just shareholders 220p in cash per share, a 75% premium to yesterday's closing price of 126p.
The plan is to combine Just with its UK subsidiary Blumont Annuity Company under the Just brand and Just Group's management team.
The Just board unanimously recommended the acquisition.
7.34am: Rolls hikes outlook
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) has given its full-year outlook a nice tweak after reporting a 50% increase in underlying profit in the first half.
The engine maker's underlying operating profit jumped to £1.73 billion from £1.15 billion a year earlier, as revenue rose 10.8% to £9.06 billion and margins increased to 19.1% from 14%.
After free cash flow improved to £1.58 billion, from £1.2 billion a year ago, an interim dividend of 4.5p per share was declared, with more than half of a previously launched £1 billion share buyback programme for 2025 still to go.
CEO Tufan Erginbilgic said: "Our multi-year transformation continues to deliver. Our actions led to strong first half year results, despite the challenges of the supply chain and tariffs. We are continuing to expand the earnings and cash potential of Rolls-Royce."
He hailed improvements in Civil Aerospace time-on-wing milestones and aftermarket profitability, while further growth potential was also seen in Power Systems from data centres and governmental contracts.
In addition, he said the small nuclear business, Rolls-Royce SMR, is expected to be profitable and free cash flow positive by 2030 after being selected as the sole provider of the UK's first small modular reactor programme last month.
7.22am: Microsoft and Meta surge
Following earnings reports after the closing bell in Wall Street, shares in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META, ETR:FB2A, SWX:FB) surged over 11% in afterhours trading, while fellow 'Mag 7' member Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) saw its stock jump over 8%
Meta's quarterly results blew past Wall Street expectations as strong advertising sales and continued momentum across its apps boosted growth.
Over at Microsoft, its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share surged 24% to $3.65, beating the consensus estimate of $3.37, with Cloud revenue up 27% and Intelligent Cloud up 26%, with CEO Satya Nadella hailing Cloud and AI as "the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector".
7.15am: FTSE 100 to edge higher as Shell, Rolls, Next report
The FTSE 100 has been called slightly higher on Thursday morning, amidst another frenetic morning of blue-chip company news, and after the US Federal Reserve kept policy on hold overnight and earnings from tech behemoths Microsoft and Meta sent their stock soaring.
Futures for the London benchmark are indicating an initial gain of around 11 points, after the index finished less than a point above flat yesterday at 9,136.9.
Wall Street's main stock indices were mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.4% and the S&P 500 down 0.1% but the Nasdaq Composite inching up 0.15%.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan's Nikkei up 1% but Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.45%.
7.06am: FTSE 100 Live on Thursday 31 July
Thursday brings results from Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.), an investor favourite after soaring over 800% since the start of 2023.
The turnaround under Tufan Erganbilgic is continuing, and analysts see potential catalysts for the company ranging from civil aerospace recovery to further gains in defence and power systems.
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL), recently relegated to the third largest company in the FTSE after dropping back from last year's all-time highs, has guided to lower oil production in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance and the sale of its onshore oil and gas joint venture in Nigeria.
Ahead of Next PLC (LSE:NXT) numbers, industry data showed that clothing and apparel sales declined in recent weeks, reversing an increase in the prior period.
What's more, at its Q1 results in May, the retailer revealed that warmer weather led to a 11.4% rise in full-price clothing sales, as many people bought summer clothing earlier than they might have normally done.
But Next cautioned that this would be likely to act as a drag on sales in the second quarter, so full-year guidance was held steady.
Unilever PLC (LSE:ULVR) had a shaky first half, analysts at Barclays said recently, but they predicted that the consumer goods heavyweight could be about to turn a corner.
The analysts argued that if the Marmite maker can deliver organic sales growth of more than 3.5% in the first half and restate its ambition for an Asia-led acceleration later this year, it could start to claw back lost ground.
Later on, the big earnings to watch will be after the closing bell in New York, when Apple and Amazon.com report.
Announcements expected:
Trading updates: Endeavour Mining, Next, Pets at Home, Shell
Interims: Aberdeen Group, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, Coats Group, Drax Group, Elementis, Endeavour Mining, Haleon, Hammerson, Helios Towers, JTC, London Stock Exchange Group, Melrose Industries, Mondi, Rentokil Initial, Robert Walters, Rolls Royce, Schroder Oriental Income Fund, Schroders, Segro, Standard Chartered, St James's Place, Unilever, Weir Group
Ex-dividends: Lloyds Banking Group
Overseas earnings: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Willis Towers Watson (all premarket), Amazon.com, Apple, Cloudflare, Illumina, Riot Platforms, Strategy (all afterhours)
Economic announcements: Nationwide House Price Index (UK), Unemployment Rate (GER), Unemployment Rate (EU), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Personal Consumption Expenditures (US), Personal Income (US), Personal Spending (US), Chicago PMI (US)