Roblox Corp (NYSE:RBLX) is set to report strong financial results for the second quarter, with Jefferies analysts expecting this to be driven by surging engagement, standout new experiences, and continued momentum across its developer ecosystem.
“There is no debate Q2 is going to be a very strong quarter for Roblox. The debate is how strong,” Jefferies wrote.
They pointed to investor expectations for 45% plus bookings growth and a third-quarter guide of more than 30% despite what they called the toughest comparisons since Covid, achieving 34% year-over-year growth in Q3 2024.
Ahead of the report, Jefferies has updated its Q2 bookings growth forecast to 42% year-over-year, up from 24% previously.
The firm also raised its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 23% to $1.75 billion and bumped its price target to $115 from $70, citing a re-rating from Grow A Garden and platform strength.
With Roblox trading near $121 at their time of writing, the new target implies modest downside.
The analysts also maintained their “Hold” rating on Roblox, citing a high bar already set by investors and premium valuation.
“The break-out success of Grow A Garden re-rating user growth in Q2 is widely understood at this point, with the stock up 82% in the last three months,” Jefferies wrote.
The firm noted that Grow A Garden has posted over 20 million concurrent users during each of the past three weekly updates, and even the game’s daily troughs are 2.5x what the previous number 1 game was averaging through the first quarter of 2025.
“Additionally, four of the five top games on Roblox were created in the last six months, it's not just a one-hit wonder, but becoming an even more scaled platform with network effects,” the analysts added.
However, the analysts pointed out that Roblox typically offers conservative forward guidance and may look to do the same with incoming CFO Naveen Chopra.
“We get the sense expectations may be higher given the strong Q2, which makes us incrementally cautious into the print,” they wrote.
Some user data also raises questions about monetization, Jefferies flagged. “Daily user peaks for Grow A Garden are in early morning US Eastern Time, with troughs during US afternoon/evening. This is the opposite of the prior #1 experience, Brookhaven, and indicates a more international audience that may not monetize the same rate,” they explained.
Additionally, advertising has not yet become a meaningful revenue driver, the analysts wrote.
“The underlying platform continues to be stronger than it has ever been, but high valuation against equally high expectations keep us on the sidelines,” the firm concluded.
Roblox will report its Q2 earnings before markets open on Thursday.