McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD, ETR:MDO) is heading into its second quarter earnings report with positive momentum across key markets, analysts at UBS believe, highlighting building same-store sales trends in the US, renewed focus on everyday value, and strategic progress in international operations.
The firm believes these factors position McDonald’s to gain market share and deliver stable earnings in a volatile macro environment.
“We continue to like McDonald’s second-half 2025 setup given catalysts to drive market share gains and strengthen United States sales growth, foreign exchange tailwinds, and defensive characteristics that provide earnings stability in a still volatile environment,” they wrote.
For Q2, Wall Street analysts, on average, expect McDonald’s to report year-over-year revenue growth of 3.5% to $6.7 billion while earnings per share are expected to be up 6% at $3.15
UBS projects UUS same-store sales growth of 2.5%, in line with the consensus and supported by successful promotional activity, such as the Minecraft Meal.
For its International Developmental Licensed Markets segment, UBS expects Q2 same-store sales growth of 3.8%.
“While macro pressures remain a risk, we expect strategic initiatives can support share gains and better sales growth in key markets in the second half,” they wrote.
Despite some deceleration in the spring, the analysts believe the third quarter is off to a strong start.
“We expect third quarter is off to a strong start in July with the return of Snack Wraps (July 10) as a previous customer favourite and at a compelling $2.99 price point,” they wrote.
UBS expects momentum in the United States to continue through the remainder of the year and into 2026, helped by value promotions, innovation, and marketing campaigns. International performance is also expected to improve, particularly in company-operated markets.
“We model 2% second-quarter International Operated Markets segment same-store sales, believing the Minecraft Meal provided a lift in several markets, with likely benefits from a continued focus on value offerings, tech enhancements, and digital loyalty gains,” they wrote.
Results are likely to remain mixed by geography, but UBS points to progress in key regions. “Performance across key markets likely remains uneven as we anticipate: gains from strategic initiatives in France with improvements still to come; market share gains from new value offerings in Germany but with a still challenged eating out market; while we expect Australia is difficult but see a path to better results and the United Kingdom remains challenging and will take some time to notably improve,” they wrote.
UBS maintains a Buy rating and a $350 price target on the fast casual restaurant chain, which implies 17% upside from the current levels.
“We continue to like McDonald’s second-half 2025 setup given catalysts to drive market share gains and strengthen United States sales growth, foreign exchange tailwinds, and defensive characteristics that provide earnings stability in a still volatile environment,” they concluded.
McDonald's will report its second quarter earnings on August 6.