4:12pm: Big week ahead
US stocks were little changed at Monday's close ahead of a big week of tech earnings.
The Nasdaq added 0.2% at 21,178 points while the S&P 500 added 1 point at 6,389 points, both new record closing levels. The Dow Jones pulled back 0.1% to 44,837 points.
3:35pm: Proactive news headlines
- Digi Power X Inc filed a provisional utility patent for its ARMS 200 modular data center platform designed for high-density GPU clusters.
- C3 Metals Inc reported positive soil sampling results at its Bellas Gate project in Jamaica, defining copper drill targets for late 2025.
- atai Life Sciences’ platform company Recognify Life Sciences released Phase 2b trial results for inidascamine in schizophrenia-related cognitive impairment, showing cognitive benefits despite missing the primary endpoint.
- Ceres Power Holdings shares jumped 44% after Doosan Fuel Cell began mass production using its solid oxide fuel cell technology.
- Adriatic Metals PLC increased Q2 production by 23% but lowered full-year guidance due to operational plan changes.
- Sovereign Metals Ltd announced highly successful test work on graphite purification at its Kasiya project, boosting its potential as a leading low-cost graphite producer.
- Ionic Rare Earths Ltd advanced in securing a R$5 billion funding package from Brazilian agencies to support rare earth refining and magnet recycling through its Viridion joint venture.
2:55pm: Stocks on the move
- Alibaba Group launched its first smart glasses, the Quark AI Glasses, powered by its proprietary AI, entering the wearable tech market alongside Meta and Xiaomi.
- First National Financial agreed to be acquired by Birch Hill Equity Partners and Brookfield in a C$2.9 billion deal, offering shareholders a 15.2% premium.
- NiCE Ltd will acquire Germany-based Cognigy for $955 million to enhance its AI-powered customer experience platform, CXone.
- ChargePoint shares dropped nearly 15% after announcing a 1-for-20 reverse stock split to maintain NYSE listing compliance.
- Mill City Ventures shares surged following a $450 million private placement to support a treasury strategy centered on the Sui blockchain.
- U.S. LNG producers rallied after the EU committed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over the next three years.
- GSK PLC announced a $500 million deal with Hengrui Pharma to co-develop up to 12 drugs, with the potential total value reaching $12 billion.
Ceres Power soared 44% after partner Doosan Fuel Cell began mass production using its solid oxide fuel cell technology.
1:45pm: AI spending in focus
The Q2 earnings season is off to a solid start, with a higher-than-average number of S&P 500 companies beating expectations—even if the size of those earnings beats is somewhat muted, according to XTB's Kathleen Brooks.
“If these positive surprises continue in the coming weeks, then the S&P 500 could boost its earnings growth rate,” she noted, especially as year-over-year earnings growth is currently at its lowest level since Q1 2024.
So far, financials and communication services are the primary drivers of earnings growth, while healthcare and energy have lagged. Revenue growth has remained broadly positive, which Brooks says is a sign of economic resilience. “It also suggests that private companies have been resilient to tariff threats. Now that they have receded, revenue growth could strengthen into year end.”
Looking ahead, tech earnings from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are the main event. Investor focus remains on AI-related spending, with Meta and Alphabet committing heavily to data center and AI infrastructure investments. So far, the market has rewarded this strategy—Alphabet shares surged 4% after earnings last week and are up 15% over the past month, helping push the S&P 500 tech sector to a record high.
12:50pm: US LNG producers lifted
US liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers were boosted on Monday by a new trade agreement between the EU and the US, under which the EU has pledged to purchase $750 billion of US energy products.
The EU will spend $250 billion per year over the next three years on energy products, including LNG, as it seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
Shares of Venture Global (NYSE:VG), the second-largest LNG exporter in the US, added 4.6% at about $15 on the news.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSE:LNG), the largest exporter in the US, added 2.6% and NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT) was up 2.3%.
11:55am: Tariffs defanged for now
Sunday delivered the long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the United States...and by Monday, the market was already voicing its verdict. Here’s a quick sweep of what the usual market megaphones had to say:
- Neil Wilson, Saxo Markets: “The news on trade is good: The EU agreed to 15% tariffs on exports to the US and to buy hundreds of billions on American energy and defence exports.”
- Chris Beauchamp, IG: "Tariffs continue to be defanged as an issue, and the announcement of yet another 90-day pause for China merely underlines the view that Washington is now closing down the issue, having gained a series of 'wins'."
- Lale Akoner, eToro: “In our view, the new US-EU trade agreement is a political and economic win for Washington, and a pragmatic retreat by Brussels.”
- Derren Nathan, Hargreaves Lansdown: “The 15% tariff on all transatlantic EU exports should be a huge relief for multiple European industries, from pharmaceutical companies through to electronic manufacturers and luxury brands.”
- Rella Suskin, Morningstar: "A 15% import tariff is far less burdensome for the EU-owned automakers than the 27.5% currently being applied.”
11:15am: No rate cut yet
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting this week, though the decision may not be unanimous.
“We expect two governors to dissent for the first time since 1993,” analysts noted. Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to signal a September rate cut or rule one out, instead maintaining a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
With no new economic forecasts, attention will turn to the policy statement. Only minor changes are expected, including the removal of a reference to net exports and continued emphasis that economic activity “has continued to expand at a solid pace.” On trade and fiscal matters, the Fed may acknowledge that uncertainty has lessened slightly, but likely retain cautious language, according to analysts.
Powell may also face renewed questions about his status amid past comments by President Trump, analysts believe.
Trade developments will also feature, with court rulings and new tariffs looming. Deutsche Bank expects a mix of new trade deals and delays, with effective tariff rates likely settling near 15%, though some upside risk remains.
10:30am: Cooler, calmer days ahead
Analysts say trade-related risks are now fading, positioning US equities for further outperformance.
“The direction of travel remains towards a cooler and calmer tone on trade,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “It’s tough to bet against the market continuing to print record highs.”
Beyond trade, attention now shifts to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. No rate move is expected, but markets are looking for signals that a September rate cut is on the table. Some Fed officials, including potential Powell successors, may vote for a cut, possibly as a show of alignment with Trump’s calls for looser policy.
Earnings season also heats up with results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple. AI investment is the top focus. Alphabet’s strong earnings and rising data center spending helped boost tech stocks last week — a trend investors hope continues.
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report wraps the week. Economists expect 109,000 jobs added in July, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. But continued strength in construction and logistics hiring suggests the labor market remains resilient.
9:50am: Equities buoyed by deals
US stocks opened the week on a mixed note Monday, as positive trade developments helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh gains, while the Dow slipped slightly. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,399 and the Nasdaq gained 0.3% to 21,172. The Dow Jones fell 0.1% to 44,841, while the Russell 2000 climbed 0.4%.
Markets were buoyed by a new US-EU trade deal announced over the weekend, with the EU agreeing to buy $750 billion in US energy, increase investment by $600 billion, and eliminate tariffs on US imports. In exchange, the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods—significantly lower than earlier threats.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said the trade cycle is becoming familiar and more predictable. “It’s all just one big negotiating game that markets have, rightly, now wised up to,” he noted.
The US and China also resumed talks in Stockholm, with reports suggesting a 90-day extension to their current trade truce. Meanwhile, President Trump hinted at additional trade deals and suggested rebate payments to lower-income Americans funded by tariff revenue.
Brown said the easing trade tensions support the bull case for equities, especially as the US economy remains strong and earnings continue to impress. He added that with the tail risk of “no deal” scenarios fading, markets are likely to remain firm—though this week’s megacap earnings could be a key test.
8:15am: Markets weigh trade pact
Wall Street is kicking off a loaded week with a bit of a spring in its step.
US stock futures pointed higher early Monday, with contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Dow is just nudging along above the flatline after a strong Friday that saw the S&P 500 notch its fifth record high in a row.
Fueling the early optimism is a fresh US-EU trade pact that sets tariffs on European goods at 15%—a relief compared to the 30% that had been on the table. President Trump called it “the biggest of them all,” while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the agreement as “the best we could get.”
Initial gains have cooled a bit as traders take a closer look at the deal’s fine print. Still, the mood is mostly positive, and attention is quickly shifting to what could be one of the most eventful weeks of the summer.
Semiconductor stocks are already reacting to the trade buzz, with ASML getting a lot of early love. Shares of the chip gear maker were up nearly 5% premarket as investors position it as a big winner from the transatlantic deal.
Elsewhere, investors are keeping a close eye on US-China relations, with trade talks reportedly set to resume in Stockholm today. There is chatter the current tariff truce could be extended by three months beyond the Aug. 12 deadline – another potential tailwind for risk assets.
But the real fireworks are coming later this week. More than 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings—including the big guns. Meta and Microsoft take center stage Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. The market will be watching for any signs of resilience, or slowdown, across cloud, ad spending, and consumer demand.
As if that weren’t enough, the Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, but investors will be combing through Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for any signal of a potential rate cut in September. Trump is already ramping up his pressure campaign on the Fed, so expect headlines.
Don’t forget inflation and jobs data. The PCE index, the Fed’s favorite inflation metric, is out Thursday and is expected to show modest increases. Then comes the main event: Friday’s July jobs report.
Finally, the US dollar index rose 0.6% on the trade news, while the Euro slipped below $1.16. Currency markets, like everyone else, are bracing for a storm of headlines.