Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU quarterly CPI
Australia’s latest quarterly inflation figures drop this week, and the data will essentially tell us if we’re getting a rate cut in August or not.
May’s monthly data showed headline consumer prices rose 2.1% in the year to May, down from 2.4% in April. Despite that data, though, the RBA kept rates on hold earlier this month when many had expected a cut. The explanation for that decision was “the Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.” For me, this signalled the board’s bias to wait for the quarterly inflation data before moving on rates, despite there probably being enough in recent data points for the RBA to cut rates.
At this point, a rate cut in August feels almost nailed on, but this week’s data will need to reinforce the case that inflation is under control. But, with global uncertainty and inflation clearly heading in the right direction, holding too tight for too long could unnecessarily hurt the economy, and that will be the concern. The expectation is for headline CPI to slow to 2.1% year over year, down from 2.4% in Q1 and trimmed CPI to come in at 2.7%.
Fed rate decision / US tariff deadline
Across the pond, the US Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead with markets expecting no change in rates. The Fed last cut rates in December and has since been in wait-and-see mode.
One big source of uncertainty is the escalating trade tension tied to President Trump’s tariff policy. Unless the US strikes deals with various nations, a raft of steep new tariffs will take effect on August 1st. For the Fed, this trade backdrop complicates the policy outlook. Tariffs act as a double-edged sword because they push up prices, adding to inflation, while potentially dragging on growth by straining supply chains and business confidence.
To add to the uncertainty, President Trump’s ongoing attack on Fed Governor Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to be letting up. Trump has called for Powell to cut rates and also wants him ousted as Governor.
Given rates are unlikely to change this week, the Fed’s commentary on growth risks and trade will take centre stage. Any hint that tariffs are impacting inflation could mean that the rate cut expectations are pushed back. For now, markets are only fully pricing in one rate cut this year. Meanwhile, investors will also keep an eye on last-minute trade negotiations up to the August 1st deadline. If talks show progress or extensions are offered, markets could breathe a sigh of relief, but failure to avert the tariffs could spur volatility.
Big tech earnings
A quartet of US tech giants report earnings this week, and their results will set the tone for markets. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, all among the world’s most valuable companies, will have investors focused on key themes like artificial intelligence, cloud growth, and the state of the consumer. Following Alphabet’s strong results, the expectations will be high.
Meta enters its results as the second-best performer of the Mag 7 with shares up over 22% year to date, just behind Nvidia. Investors will be watching for updates on its growing AI investment, including its new “superintelligence” lab. After major cost cuts last year, the focus is now on balancing spending and growth. For Microsoft, Cloud and AI remain the twin pillars of its story. Azure revenue was guided to grow 34–35% in Q2, and markets will be watching closely to see if that target was met. AI demand remains solid, and Microsoft’s ongoing investment in infrastructure and tools could drive further upside.
Apple shares are down 15% in 2025, and its results will shed light on consumer demand. Despite potential US$900 million in lost profit from US tariffs, Apple’s supply chain agility and pricing power may cushion the blow. All eyes will be on a clearer AI roadmap after muted announcements at its recent developer event. Optimism around the next iPhone launch could lift sentiment if management hints at a strong upgrade cycle. Finally, Amazon’s cloud division, AWS, remains a key driver and is now the focal point every time the tech giant reports. Investors should watch for commentary on AI-driven cloud demand and infrastructure expansion, while margin improvement through cost cuts and automation remains a key focus. Strong Prime Day results could signal resilient consumer spending and boost confidence in Amazon’s retail segment.